Posted 12 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  4 comments

Texas vs Washington January 1, 2024 @ New Orleans LA

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Texas -4, Washington +4
Moneyline: Texas -190, Washington +160
Total: 64.5

Preview

While there was plenty of controversy about the four teams selected for the College Football Playoffs, nobody can dispute that these two teams deserve to be here.

Washington upset the Oregon Ducks as a double digit underdog in the PAC12 Championship Game to finish the season with a perfect 13-0 record. Michael Penix Jr. is a Heisman Trophy finalist, and the Huskies finished 1st nationally in passing offense averaging 344 yards per game.

Texas didn’t just win the BIG12, the Longhorns have the best non-conference win in the country with their upset win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa in Week 2. This sets up a potential Hollywood Final if Texas faces Alabama for the National Championship.

Texas

• 12-1 Overall in 2023
• 8-1 in the BIG12 in 2023
• 7-5-1 ATS in 2023

The Longhorns rank fourth nationally in run defense allowing just 81 yards per game and 2.9 yards per attempt. As impressive as that is, it might not be that significant against a Washington team that leads the nation in passing.

Texas ranked 10th in the BIG12 against the pass this season, allowing 240 yards per game. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns on 32-of-54 passing in a 27-20 win over Texas in last year’s Alamo Bowl.

The Longhorns lost their leading rusher Jonathan Brooks who suffered a torn ACL in the win over TCU on November 11th. They will miss him, as he ran for 1,139 yards and 10 TDs and averaged 6.1 yards per carry.

Washington

• 13-0 Overall in 2023
• 9-0 in the PAC12 in 2023
• 6-6-1 ATS in 2023

The Huskies have one of the hottest coaches in college football. Kalen DeBoer has won everywhere he’s been, with a career record of 103-11 in eight seasons. He’s earned a reputation as a “quarterback whisperer.”

Michael Penix Jr. lead the nation in passing with 4,218 yards, 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His top target Rome Odunze was second in the country in receiving with 1,428 yards.

Washington ranked sixth in the PAC12 in scoring defense, allowing 23.6 points per game. This is a slight improvement after allowing over 26 points per game in 2022. The Huskies finished with the most interceptions (16) in the PAC12.

Relevant Trends

• The Huskies are 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall.
• The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall.
• The Huskies are 7-13 SU in their last 20 bowl games.
• The Longhorns are 10-3 SU in their last 13 bowl games.
• The under is 6-3-1 in Oregon’s last 10 overall.

PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 38 – TEXAS 31

This actually looks like it could be a favorable matchup for the Huskies. They face a team that they beat in a bowl game last year, and Texas is vulnerable against the pass. Texas has also struggled in the red zone and has often left points on the table. Even in last year’s bowl game the Longhorns only managed to convert 420 yards of offense into 20 points. We might expect this game to be higher scoring than last year’s Alamo Bowl, but the same team is likely to prevail.

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