Baylor vs Auburn NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction September 5, 2026
Posted 3 weeks ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, Featured, NCAAF | 0 comments
BAY vs AUB September 5, 2026 @ ATL, GA
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: AUB -7, BAY +7
Moneyline: AUB -300, BAY +240
Total: 61.5
Baylor vs Auburn Betting Preview
The Tigers defeated Baylor 38-24 at Waco last August, but these two teams will look very different here in Atlanta. The Tigers have a new head coach, and Alex Golesh brought his quarterback with him from South Florida.
Dave Aranda is rumored to be on the hot seat, and his team is projected to finish near the bottom of the BIG12 in 2026. Aranda is supposed to be a defensive guru, but the Bears ranked 16th in the BIG12 allowing over 32 points per game last season. Only Oklahoma City ranked worse.
It would appear that these two programs are trending in opposite directions.
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Baylor Betting Preview
- Head coach: Dave Aranda
- Offensive coordinator: Jake Spavital
- Defensive coordinator: Joe Klanderman
- 5-7 Overall in 2025
- 3-6 in the BIG12 in 2025
- 2-10 ATS in 2025
The Bears had the worst ATS record in the country last season. They had a senior quarterback in Sawyer Robertson that led the BIG12 in passing, but the defense ranked 122nd nationally allowing roughly 33 points per game.
DJ Lagway comes over from Florida to replace Robertson, but he failed to live up to expectations despite being surrounded by plenty of talent during his time with the Gators.Playing behind a rebuilt offensive line, it might be more of the same for Lagway.
It may take a miracle for Dave Aranda to save his job this season.
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Auburn Betting Preview
- Head coach: Alex Golesh
- Offensive coordinator: Joel Gordon
- Defensive coordinator: DJ Durkin
- 5-7 Overall in 2025
- 1-7 in the SEC in 2025
- 4-7-1 ATS in 2025
Hugh Freeze was fired after losing five of the first six SEC games last year. The Tigers made a splashy hire bringing over Alex Golesh from South Florida.
Golesh brings the majority of his offense from South Florida with him, including QB Byrum Brown, a running back and four receivers. The offensive line will be completely overhauled, and they are only bringing back one starter on defense.
While there is a ton of optimism surrounding the program, they are still projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC based on a tough schedule. Their regular season win total is set at 6.5, but they will probably only be favored in six games.
Baylor vs Auburn Betting Trends
- Baylor is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 overall.
- The Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 overall.
- The Under 7-3 in the Tigers last 10 overall.
- Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite.
- Baylor is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog.
PREDICTION: BAY 23 – AUB 34
The Bears are a team in a tough spot, and will likely find themselves overmatched here in Atlanta. The Tigers ran for 307 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-24 win at Baylor last year, and we expect them to have plenty of success running the ball with a dual threat quarterback here in this game. We have Auburn winning and covering, with the total coming up just short of the listed number.
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