Mike Lundin Handicapper Reviews & Picks

MAGIC MIKE'S 4% NHL TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): Ottawa was a clearly better team than Toronto last season (44-27-11 against 32-36-14), and the Leafs finished with a -43 goal differential after scoring 252 and allowing 295. The Senators scored more (3.4 goals per game to 3.1) and allowed far fewer (3.0 GAA to 3.6), and Toronto is missing Elvis Merzlikins in goal along with Max Domi and Dakota Joshua up front. This is a home team that was a bottom-half club a year ago getting treated as a normal favorite, and I think the market is leaning on the Toronto name more than the roster. Artem Zub is out for the Senators, but the overall gap between these two teams is bigger than that injury, so I like Ottawa at this number.

The Bet: Senators ML (4%).

MAGIC MIKE'S NHL MONEYLINE MONEYMAKER

The Angle(s): The market looks to be leaning on Pittsburgh's 7-0 opening night win, which was a blowout against a Flyers team and says little about the gap between these two teams. Montreal was the better team last season, and was top ten in goals scored and goal differential, while the Penguins ranked 24th in goals against and leaned on a 12.5% team shooting percentage that is due to cool off. Montreal has the more dependable roster, with Suzuki and Caufield driving one of the league's better offenses and Jakub Dobes steady in net after a win with a 2.00 GAA against the Maple Leafs in the opener. Pittsburgh's defensive numbers from last year don't suggest a team that can keep stacking blowouts, and with Kuzmenko only now making his Penguins debut, the lineup is still settling. I like the Habs at this number as the Penguins' hot start gets priced in too heavily.

The Bet: Canadiens ML (3%).

4% Gators v Mizzou CFB Total TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): Florida has scored 44 or more points in every game this season, including a 52-28 win over Ole Miss and a 44-39 shootout at Auburn. The Gators are balanced when on the ball, but the defense has allowed 248 passing yards a game. Missouri has the weapons to take advantage of that. The Tigers posted 414 yards even in a 31-24 loss to Mississippi State last week, so they should be able to hold up their end of a high-scoring game.

Missouri's defense gave up 499 yards and 6.4 yards per play to Mississippi State, so I think there are plenty of paths to a shootout, and this number leaves room for it.

The Bet: Over (4%).

4% CFB ATS TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): UNLV catches a Cal defense that has had real trouble against the run. The Golden Bears are allowing 191.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks 124th in the FBS. The Rebels have a good way to attack that in Jai'Den Thomas, who sits at 337 yards on 57 carries, close to six yards a carry. Jackson Arnold has also been clean through the air, with 891 yards, 5 touchdowns against 0 INTs. Cal has been sloppy. The Golden Bears are 113th in the FBS at 71.8 penalty yards per game, and quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has already thrown 4 INTs. Cal is also 1-3 against the spread, so expectations have run ahead of results.

The Bet: UNLV ML (4%).

MAGIC MIKE'S CFB BOOKIE BU$TER

The Angle(s): Louisville is the more talented team on paper, but they head into their first true road game with real question marks. Lincoln Kienholz is questionable with a lower-body injury and has been limited in practice. He has accounted for nearly two-thirds of the Cardinals' total offense, so if he can't go, Louisville turns to a quarterback with one series of experience in this offense. Even if he plays, a banged-up QB whose legs are a big part of the attack is a risk, and the Cardinals are coming off a stunning home loss to Wake Forest.

NC State has plenty to like. The Wolfpack average 38.2 points a game and run it at 5.6 yards a carry. Their loss to Vanderbilt came down to an individual mistake rather than being outplayed. I think this number undersells them at home. The market has already moved a lot on the Kienholz news, but a team that can score like this should be able to stay within the number.

The Bet: NC State ATS (3%)

MAGIC MIKE'S MLB MONEYLINE MONEYMAKER

The Angle(s): The market is treating this like a clear Guardians edge, but the two clubs finished 85-77 and 84-78 and the Chicago White Sox took the season series 7-6. Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA) has admittedly been excellent, still, he's an inexperienced rookie rookie who hasn't seen a playoff stage, and the White Sox have already shown they can handle one. They just beat the Astros to get here, and they bring a lineup with real juice, and face a Guardians lineup that scored noticeably fewer runs than Chicago this season. At this price the White Sox look undervalued.

Hagen Smith getting the Game 1 nod looks scary on paper, but it's an opener role. He worked 1.29 ERA out of the bullpen and threw three scoreless innings in his Wild Card start, so Chicago can piece this together with a deep group of arms and a short leash.

The Bet: White Sox ML (3%).

4% MLB TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): The Tampa Bay Rays won 98 games, finished five clear of the Yankees in the AL East, and get Game 1 at home with a rested staff after the bye. Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA), 0.91 WHIP) led the AL in WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he has dominated the Bronx Bombers, going 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA against the Yankees this year. Tampa Bay also owned the stingiest run prevention unit in the AL.

Gerrit Cole has handled the Rays well in recent meetings, but he was a middling 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA this season, and the Yankees are still without Aaron Judge as he works back from a calf strain. New York also leaned on Cam Schlittler and Max Fried in the Wild Card Series, while the Rays had their arms lined up. I think the Rays are the better side in this spot.

The Bet: Rays ML (4%).