Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Week 1 NFL Preview and Prediction September 11, 2022

Posted 3 months ago |  NFL, Previews and Predictions  |  8 comments

Tampa Bay vs Dallas September 11, 2022 @ Arlington TX

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Tampa Bay -3, Dallas +3
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -150, Dallas +120
Total: 52

Preview

Both these teams won their respective divisions last year, but each suffered disappointing home losses in the Playoffs. Tampa won 13 games and Tom Brady was the NFL’s leading passer at the age of 45.

The Cowboys won a dozen games and they had the highest scoring offense in the league in 2021. It was a bounce back year for Dak Prescott, throwing for 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions.

These teams played in Tampa in Week 1 last season, and the Bucs won that game by a score of 31-29. The home team has won outright in each of the last five head to head meetings, but has failed to cover in all but one of those games.

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Tampa Bay

  • 13-4 overall in 2021
  • 4-2 in the NFC South in 2021
  • 10-9 against the spread in 2021

The Bucs went 0-3 in the pre-season, which isn’t really any reason for concern. What is more concerning is that Tom Brady was absent from the team for an extended time, and rumors about trouble in his personal life could prove to be a distraction.

Injuries on the offensive line also threaten to derail the Bucs chances of another Super Bowl run. Starting center Ryan Jensen suffered a serious knee injury in training camp, and he’s expected to be sidelined indefinitely. Backup center Robert Hainsey suffered an ankle injury in the pre-season, but the Bucs are hopeful he’s good to go in Week 1.

While there is still plenty of talent on offense with Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin at receiver, and Leonard Fournette at running back, the departure of Ronald Jones leaves them lacking depth in the backfield. The defense should remain a strength providing everyone can stay healthy.

Dallas

  • 12-5 overall in 2021
  • 6-0 in the NFC East in 2021
  • 13-5 against the spread in 2021

The Cowboys were the biggest moneymaker for bettors last year, with the best record against the spread of any NFL team. The offense lost a big piece when they traded Amari Cooper to the Cleveland Browns.  After back to back 1,000+ yard seasons, he played just 15 games and caught 68 passes for 885 yards and eight TDs in 2021.

While Cooper’s departure might be good news for Cee Dee Lamb and everyone picking him in their fantasy pool, it remains to be seen if Michael Gallup and third round draft choice Jalen Tolbert can pick up the slack.

Making matters worse, offensive tackle Tyron Smith is out for the season with a knee injury. There have already been signs that Ezekiel Elliott is on the downside of his career, and losing their best offensive lineman isn’t good news for Zeke.

Relevant Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
  • The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • The under is 5-1 in the last six head to head meetings.
  • The under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 games overall.

Prediction: Bucs 29 – Cowboys 24

It’s never been a good idea to bet against Tom Brady, and after leading the league in passing last year it seems like a bad time to start doubting a guys with seven rings. He still has a star studded supporting cast, and while there are questions that need to be answered in Tampa, there is more uncertainty in Dallas.

The Bucs have covered the spread in four of their last five versus Dallas, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams. The over is 13-6 in the Cowboys last 19 home games, and we are predicting a high score here in this Week 1 game.

Before you dive into the Week 1 betting action, you might want to consult Kyle Hunter. His impressive resume includes finishing #1 overall with college football in 2021, Top 5 All Time with college football, and he was named Handicapper of the Decade in 2020.

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8 comments on Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Week 1 NFL Preview and Prediction September 11, 2022


MIke Lundin

Not betting Sunday Night Football this week, but gun to head; Cowboys. Or just wait until near kick off and fade whichever team the public and the panels are on. Gonna assume that’ll be the Bucs, so my “gun to head pick” stands.


Larry Coleman

You gotta like Tampa Bay here versus the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys are going to be the most overrated team in the NFL this year after they had the best ATS record in the NFL in 2021. They played way over their heads last year. My prediction is they finish 8-9 and lose here this week. The Bucs are just a better team with a better coach, more weapons. IMO.


Benny Kelso

Both the Tampa Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys have problems on their respective offensive lines. The Cowboys receiving corps looks a little thin. The total has been bet down a little, but it’s still over 50. I think this looks like a potential under bet, and my prediction is that we see both teams struggle on offense. 24-21 type win either way.


Monster Ca$h

Week 1 NFL on Sunday Night Football and the Bucs are gonna crush the Cowboys. I have been reading a lot of previews and predictions, and the same theme comes up. Cowboys gonna miss Cooper and their offensive line is really gonna miss Tyrone Smith. It’s going to be a struggle for Ezekiel Elliott. Tampa Buccaneers win 28-17 in Arlington Texas.


Pon Nguyen

This preview is crap! Prediction is Wrong. I like Cowboys to beat Bucs in Week 1. Didn’t u hear about Brady divorce? Tom Brady is old man with wife problems. Bucs lose 30-21.


Jimmy Cavs

Brady is an emotional mess, he’ll be lucky if he makes it through the season without retiring. His wife his riding his ass about coming out of retirement. Check this out from Outkick.com: https://www.outkick.com/giseles-decision-to-flee-has-tom-brady-very-sad/?fbclid=IwAR0BY7L_gi__dzyNO4acgFS6MkC4azt0wOKtl11IvYXb9a-rUUsvcQOO2Ec


Canada Steve

You heard it here first! Week 1 Tampa Buccaneers beat Dallas Cowboys! I sure hope this preview and prediction proves to be correct. I hate the Cowboys and their fans. By far the worst fan base in the NFL.


Brad Carson

I am not a fan of this Week 1 NFL preview, your prediction seems a little bias. Maybe it’s just because I am a Cowboys fan but it sure sounds like this was written by a Buccaneers fan. Tom Brady this, Tom Brady that. Seven rings, he’s the GOAT, He’s older than Mike Gundy was when he gave the Epic “I’m a man” speech.

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