Jack Jones Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Rockets +5.5

I like the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  This is a rematch with the Sacramento Kings after their 126-114 road loss to them on Friday.  Now the Rockets will be out for revenge here two days later in Sacramento again Sunday.

The Rockets were 5-point underdogs in that first meeting and are now 5.5-point dogs in the rematch.  So we are getting a better line, and it hasn't been adjusted for the revenge factor as it should be.  Look for the Rockets to keep this one much closer than the first meeting and to likely win this game outright.

Plays on underdogs (Houston) - a cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games against an opponent that has covered three of their last four ATS are 75-32 (70.1%) ATS since 1996.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on Houston in this revenge spot.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

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15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +9.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been grossly undervalued in Big Ten play of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by 7 to Purdue as 9.5-point underdogs.  They upset Indiana as 5-point home dogs, upset Northwestern as 8-point road dogs and crushed Rutgers by 17 as 2-point home favorites.

Now I love the spot for the Nittany Lions as they won't be having a letdown.  Instead, they will be out for revenge from a 64-76 home loss to Ohio State as 5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching 9.5 points in the rematch.  Ohio State isn't going to shoot as well as it did in the first meeting, making 50.9% overall and 12-of-27 (44.4%) from 3-point range.

The Buckeyes aren't playing well enough to justify being 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed OT to beat Nebraska as a 9.5-point road favorite, got crushed by 16 at Indiana, only won by 8 at home over Northwestern as 7.5-point favorites and lost by 10 at Wisconsin as 3.5-point dogs.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking to much here.

Penn State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  The Nittany Lions are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Pistons UNDER 215.5

Early afternoon Sunday UNDERS have been a great bet in the NBA for years.  The number is right to pull the trigger on this UNDER today between the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons.  This game will be played at a snail's pace and both teams will be getting after it defensively.

The Suns just got back DeAndre Ayton and JaVale McGee.  It's no surprise their defense has picked up their play with these two in the lineup.  The Suns allowed 95 points to the Raptors and 94 points to the Pacers in their last two games.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.

Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that ranks dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season.  The Pistons have been held to 103 or fewer points in four of their last five games.  But they are playing better defensively, holding two of their last four opponents to 92 points or fewer.

Cameron Johnson has missed the last couple games for the Suns and is questionable to return, which is a big reason their offense has struggled in scoring 106 points or fewer in three of their last four.  The Pistons will be without three guards in Jerami Grant, Frank Jackson and Rodney McGruder today.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Suns last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons last five games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -12.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are gassed.  They have played essentially six straight playoffs games.  They beat the Ravens by 1, lost by 8 at the Vikings after trailing 23-0 at halftime, beat the Titans by 6 after trailing 10-0 at halftime, lost 10-36 at Kansas City after trailing 36-3, beat the Browns 26-14 on Monday Night Football and beat the Ravens 16-13 in OT last week.

Those wins over the Titans, Browns and Ravens all come with asterisks and they barely won all three.  The Titans were missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Browns had just been eliminated from playoff contention and it was Big Ben's final home game, and the Ravens were ravaged by injuries and playing with a backup QB.  The Steelers are one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory.  Give them credit for winning these games, but they're not very good.  That's indicated by the fact that they have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.

Of course, the one blowout loss during this stretch came in that 10-36 road loss to the Chiefs.  And keep in mind the Chiefs didn't have Travis Kelce plus Tyreke Hill was limited due to injury and only had two receptions for 19 yards.  Now Kelce and Hill are both back healthy and this is going to be another blowout.

We saw the Chiefs crush the Raiders 41-14 on the road and come back home and beat the Raiders 48-9.  Sometimes, it's just a bad matchup for the opponent like it is for the Raiders.  And this is a terrible matchup for the Steelers.  Big Ben is only good at checking the ball down with his weak arm and cannot match Patrick Mahomes score for score.  In fact, Big Ben is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt in his last six games.

This Kansas City offense has hit its stride down the stretch en route to going 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall with its only loss coming at Cincinnati after blowing a double-digit lead.  Unlike Big Ben, the Bengals have the firepower with Joe Burrow and company to match the Chiefs score for score.  The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in their last five games.

This is an underrated Kansas City defense as well that has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games during this 9-1 run.  The Chiefs are also the fresher team having played on Saturday last week while the Steelers played on Sunday.  Again, the Steelers just don't have much left in the tank after going to overtime with the Ravens and playing so many tight playoff games here down the stretch.  The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs as well.

Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the wild card round since 2003.  Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.  The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Kansas City.  We get a playoff-motivated Chiefs team here that will dominate from pillar to post this weekend.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated wild card teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Dallas Cowboys.  They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained eight of their last nine opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  It's safe to say the 49ers come into the playoffs now with a ton of confidence feeling like they can win under any circumstance.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).

While the 49ers are one of the most underrated playoffs teams, the Cowboys are one of the most overrated.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their five wins came against Washington (twice), Philadelphia's backups, a Giants team that has quit and a Saints team ravaged by COVID.

The loss came at home to the Arizona Cardinals 22-25 as 6.5-point favorites in which they were outgained by 98 yards.  That's a fellow NFC West team.  The Cowboys also have upset home losses to the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites and the Raiders as 7-point favorites in their last 10 games.  They just can't be trusted to lay a number at home against a team as good as the 49ers.

The 49ers are expected to get LT Trent Williams back this week and he is one of the best tackles in the game.  He helps a 49ers offensive line that ranks 1st in the NFL in run blocking according to pro football focus.  Dallas ranks 22nd against the run according to pro football focus.   That's why this is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys.  The 49ers will be able to run the ball and control the game.  Jimmy G likes to throw the ball over the middle, which is Dallas' weakness against the pass whereas they are great at defending the pass outside the numbers.  

Jimmy G will have Kittle and Deebo Samuel open across the middle when he needs to throw.  These are two of the most underrated weapons in the game.  Kittle has 71 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns this season in just 14 games.  Samuel has 77 receptions, 1,405 yards and six scores while also rushing for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games.  RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) is also healthy now after playing in just 11 games this season.

The 49ers feel like they are free rolling after last week's comeback, while all the pressure is on the Cowboys to try and win a playoff game.  Dallas is just 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 1996, including 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS as favorites.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games with a line of +3 to -3.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games.  San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight January games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.