Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Indiana State -3 

We’re getting excellent value on Indiana State as only a 3-point home favorite over Missouri State in MVC action Sunday.  The Sycamores are coming off back-to-back road losses at Illinois State and Bradley, so it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them. 

Now Indiana State is back home where they have one of the best advantages in the Missouri Valley.  Indeed, the Sycamores are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season.  That includes 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in MVC play with Indiana State outscoring its opponents by an average of 14.5 points per game. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Missouri State after they went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming in, including a blowout of Drake last time out at home.  But the Bears are just 2-8 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming against the two worst teams in the MVC in Evansville (0-13) and Illinois State (3-11). 

Indiana State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Missouri State is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Sycamores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Bet Indiana State Sunday.

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15* Memphis/UConn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4 

The UConn Huskies are playing well right now going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Memphis by 7 and on the road at SMU by 4.  They beat Temple by 15 at home, upset Cincinnati at home and upset Tulsa by 16 on the road. 

Now the Huskies want revenge from their 63-70 road loss at Memphis on February 1st.  They get an extra day to rest and prepare having three days off in between games.  Memphis only has two days off since its deflating OT loss at Cincinnati on Thursday.  That followed up an upset home loss to South Florida as 9-point favorites. 

UConn is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season.  Memphis is 2-3 SU in AAC road games this season while getting outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Their two wins came by a combined 6 points over UCF and USF. 

Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  UConn is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Huskies are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.  UConn is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 home games overall.  Roll with UConn Sunday. 

15* Villanova/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Temple +6.5 

The Temple Owls have turned the corner here in their last four games and are playing well enough to hang with a team like Villanova.  This is a huge rivalry game and the Owls will want this one more today in the home underdog role. 

Temple is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The only loss came at Memphis. They beat ECU by 12 at home and upset SMU by 7 at home.  They also went on the road and covered in a win at Tulane. 

Villanova is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Creighton and Seton Hall and also nearly lost to Marquette in a 1-point win as 6-point favorites.  They lost on the road at Butler as well.  It’s a solid Villanova team, but definitely one of the worst Villanova teams in the last decade. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS in February home games over the last three seasons.  Villanova is 2-9 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Villanova is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers once again today.  Take Temple Sunday. 

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are highly motivated for a win Sunday.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with tough road losses at Illinois and Penn State and a home loss to Michigan State.  They did beat Wisconsin by 18 in between at home. 

Minnesota is also out for revenge from a 52-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  Now the Gophers get the Hawkeyes at home this time around, where they are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  And the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has been huge. 

Iowa is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in Big Ten road games this season, losing those six games by an average of 13.2 points per game.  They just lost by 12 at Indiana on Thursday, who had lost four straight prior to that game.  Adding injury to insult is that they lost their best shooter in C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.7% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury in that defeat. 

Minnesota has a huge rest advantage in this game was well.  They have had seven days off in between games having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only has two days off to get ready for Minnesota after playing Indiana on February 13th. 

Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Iowa is 7-22 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 14-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.