Jack Jones Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 46.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The 49ers and Seahawks squared off three times last season after meeting in the playoffs, too. Looking at the history of this series it has been a dead nuts UNDER when these division rivals get together.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 37, 30, 16 and 47 combined points. They combined for just 566 total yards in that 37-point meeting, 614 yards in that 30-point meeting, 534 yards in that 16-point meeting and 517 yards in that 47-point meeting. It took a miracle to get 47 combined points in that playoff meeting last year with the Seahawks winning 41-6 while benefitting from a 95-yard kickoff return TD to open the game. The 49ers gifted them some easy points with three turnovers as well.

This season, these have been two of the best defenses in the NFL, so it should be more of the same especially with the 49ers much healthier on defense than they were in the playoffs last season. San Francisco ranks 3rd in scoring defense at 16.0 points per game, 7th in total defense at 308.8 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play allowed. Having Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw back healthy and leading the defense this season has made all the difference.

Seattle has been even better and is actually nearly at full strength on defense. The Seahawks rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 246.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.2 yards per play allowed. They have all hands on deck defensively with the exception of one starting CB position, but they have proven they have plenty of depth in the secondary to make up for it.

The 49ers rank well offensively this season, but the injuries continue to pile up for them, and I think they have benefited from a soft schedule of opposing defenses. Mike Evans is playing hurt, and they are down five receivers plus FB Kyle Juszczyk, who is one of the most underrated players in the league for what he does for this Kyle Shanahan offense. The Seahawks really miss Kenneth Walker as their running game has been a major disappointment this season. It doesn't help that they remain without Zach Charbonnet, first-round pick Price, and having George Holani questionable heading into this one.

There will be double-digit winds in Seattle to affect the passing and kicking games as well to aid us in cashing this UNDER 46.5 ticket. I expect another defensive grinder between these NFC West rivals this afternoon. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Dolphins UNDER 44

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts UNDER team. They have the worst offense in the NFL scoring just 11.5 points per game. But their defense is an underrated unit that plays as hard as anyone. They held the Chiefs to 24 points two weeks ago and the Vikings to 15 points last week. I think they can hold the Bengals in check enough to keep this UNDER the total.

The Bengals have struggled on offense this season and were just held to 17 points by the Jaguars last week. A big reason for the struggles was a concussion suffered by Jamar Chase, and then fellow WR Tee Higgins leaving late with an adductor injury. Both are expected to play today but will likely be limited. Fellow WR Colbie Young is questionable, and WR Andrei Iosivas is on IR. Burrow is seriously lacking weapons heading into this one.

But why I'm excited about the Bengals this season is the fact that it looks like they have their best defense in years with the upgrades they made in the offseason, including bringing in DT Dexter Lawrence. They are allowing 21.3 points per game through four games. I expect them to come close to shutting out the Dolphins.

The Malik Willis contract looks terrible now, but in his defense he has no weapons to work with. The Dolphins lost their star RB Achane a few weeks ago to a season-ending injury. Now their best WR in Caleb Douglas is out this week. The Dolphins have to try and go more ball control offense and eat up the playclock to be competitive, which is something defensive-minded head coach Jeff Hafley is familiar with.

It kept them competitive in a 24-10 loss and 34 combined points with the Chiefs two weeks ago, and in a 15-10 loss and 25 combined points with the Vikings last week. It will be a similar script this week against the Bengals, who will likely be in for more of a battle than they bargained for with their limitations on offense right now due to injury. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Ravens/Falcons NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5

Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush is not being factored into these lines enough. Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons. It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago. Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL. London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson. He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers. He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week. This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state. And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games. They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

The Falcons will continue to thrive offensively at home this week against a mediocre Baltimore defense that is allowing 24.0 points per game this season. The Ravens allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil two weeks ago and it should have been more as the Cowboys failed from the 1-yard line at the end. And they are without arguably their most important defensive player in LB Trey Hendrickson, their best pass rusher who will be out again this week.

This total is only being set this low because Lamar Jackson is out for the Ravens, otherwise this total would be in the 50's. That's a big adjustment down for backup QB Tyler Huntley, who has proven he can lead this offense for years. I like the fact that WR Zay Flowers is back healthy, and he is one of the most explosive players in the NFL. Short passes to him can turn into explosives in a hurry and they will. The Ravens are scoring 29.0 points per game, averaging 395.0 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.

This Atlanta defense has held up reasonably well despite some injuries, but the injuries continue to pile up and have gotten even worse this week. They are allowing 23.0 points per game this season. But they lost arguably their best pass rusher in LB Da'Darius Smith to a concussion last week and he has been ruled out. They are without their best CB in AJ Terrell. Fellow starting LB's Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam are questionable for this one as well.

I expect the Falcons to get into the 30's and for the Ravens to be able to do enough against this banged up Atlanta D to easily get the OVER 43.5 here, which is just below a big key number of 44. This game will be played on a fast track indoors in Atlanta, too. Kevin Stefanski is 6-0 OVER in primetime games over the last four seasons, going over the total by an average of 16.2 points per game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3

I grabbed the Falcons +3 as soon as the lines came out after they beat the Saints on Monday Night Football. I expected them to take money and for Lamar Jackson to eventually be ruled out, and that's precisely what happened. This is an example of why it's great to have a long-term package because you get the plays as soon as I release them. I would still play the Falcons up to -3 tonight.

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers two weeks ago in an easy 35-14 victory. I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough. I stated the same thing and backed them again at +3 against the Saints, and they proceeded to deliver with a 45-24 victory. I think I was right on this call and it has proven to be the case, and I'm riding it again this week.

Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons. It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago. Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL. London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson. He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers. He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week. This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state. And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games. They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

This Atlanta defense is better than it gets credit for, too. Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich lost his wife in the offseason and this defense has rallied around him. Despite some injuries, the Falcons have had one of the best pressure rates in the NFL. Both Tyler Shough and Jordan Love were under duress for the majority of the games.

The Ravens will go with backup QB Tyler Huntley, and the drop off from Lamar Jackson to him is one of the biggest in the NFL. He is capable of managing an offense, but the Ravens will be much less explosive than they have been. Also, they are down to a 3rd-string center due to injuries, which is why they traded with the Eagles for a center last week, but Cam Jurgens is in concussion protocol and will not play.

The Ravens will also be without their best pass rusher on defense in LB Trey Hendrickson, who they gave a pile of money in the offseason. Their defense has been sub-par this season allowing 24.0 points per game. They allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil, and the Falcons have a similarly explosive offense. I'm not worried about the Falcons being on a short week after playing on MNF because they played the Thursday prior and had 3 extra days off as a result. Plus, they blew out their last two opponents and were able to rest starters late.

The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home in primetime as a head coach since 2021. The Ravens are 82-37 SU with Lamar Jackson, and 10-17 SU with all other QB's starting in his career. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers ML -135

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are coming off a tough loss to Cleveland last Thursday on the road. Sadly, they always lose to the Browns on the road, and the Browns are certainly better than most give them credit for. But now the Steelers are motivated off that loss, plus on extra rest after playing last Thursday which has given them more time to get healthy.

The Colts are traveling back from London so it will be a short week for them. They beat the Commanders 30-13 in one of the most misleading finals of the season. The Commanders lost QB Marcus Mariota in that game or it would have been a different story, instead having to turn to a rookie. Still, the Commanders outgained the Colts by 60 yards and 1.4 yards per play for the game. The Colts were held to a putrid 257 yards and 4.0 yards per play.

In fact, the Colts are very close to being 0-4 instead of 2-2. They escaped with a last-second home win over the Texans the week prior, and they benefited from Washington being down to a 3rd-string QB. In their two losses, they were dominated getting outgained by 196 yards by the Chiefs and 255 yards by the Ravens. They have some of the worst numbers in the NFL overall.

The Colts are broken offensively averaging just 284.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. They are poor defensively, allowing 392.3 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 108 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. Daniel Jones is a shell of his former self coming back from injury not using his legs at all with just 21 rushing yards on the season. His weapons leave a lot to be desired without Alec Pierce, Ashton Dullin and Darius Slayton due to injury, while Keenan Allen is playing through injury. The defense is without DE Key, LB Carlies and CB Ward is questionable. CB Gardner has been one of the worst at his position in the league after the blockbuster trade for him last season.

The Steelers are 2-0 at home this season beating the Bengals and Falcons. In their last two games, their offense has really started to show what it is capable of and will likely be the best unit on the field. They had 30 points, 411 yards and 7.2 yards per play against the Bengals and 24 points, 361 yards and 6.1 yards per play agains the Browns. This is a usual solid Pittsburgh defense holding opponents to 21.8 points per game on the season.

The Steelers are 17-1 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Colts. The only QB to win in Pittsburgh was Peyton Manning. McCarthy and Rodgers as a duo are 44-21-3 ATS at home since 2010. Daniel Jones is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in his career against the Steelers. Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 53.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 4-0 OVER in all games this season going for 61 combined points with the Saints, 72 with the Bills, 55 with the Jets and 58 with the Panthers, topping this 53.5-point total every week.

The Lions are fully health on offense and thriving. They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.8 points per game, 6th in total offense at 389.2 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play. And we are getting Jared Goff indoors here which is where he really shines.

But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this season. They rank 31st in scoring defense at 31.8 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 423.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play. They are without five key players in the secondary in Branch, Joseph, Harper, Maddox and Ya-Sin and teams have been able to throw all over them.

Jacoby Brissett and this Arizona offense have shown they can keep up in a shootout. They did so the last two weeks with a 36-30 loss to the 49ers that saw 66 combined points, and a 36-24 loss to the Giants that saw 60 combined points. Both games were outdoors, too. Now Brissett and company are back in a dome and he will have his full compliment of weapons available outside the mystery of Marvin Harrison Jr, who has been unproductive this season anyway. They might be better off getting the distraction that comes with him off the field.

This Arizona defense is trash again this season. The Cardinals rank 29th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game, 24th at 351.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play. They have some key injuries in the secondary without CB Will Johnson and S Andrew Wingard, plus DT Walter Nolen is questionable. They have allowed 30-plus points in three consecutive weeks with two of those coming against backup QB's in Drew Lock of the Seahawks and Jameis Winson of the Giants. I expect them to give up 30-plus again to the Lions, but to also be able to keep up in a shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.