Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: St. John's -1.5

This looks like a good time to 'buy low' on the St. John's Red Storm tonight off two straight losses to DePaul and Villanova.  They had gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 games.  Now they've had over a week off to rest and get ready for this game against Providence.

The Red Storm are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  They already beat Providence 92-81 on the road in their first meeting this season.  It's a Providence team I like backing at home, but not one that has fared well on the highway going just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in all games away from home.

St. John's is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit road loss.  Providence struggles to keep up offensively with teams that like to push the tempo like the Red Storm do.  The Friars are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

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15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5

Oregon has come out the other side of their early COVID problems and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road at USC.  This run has put themselves in position to win the Pac-12 and steal the title from UCLA with wins in their final two regular season games.

UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall and faltering here down the stretch.  The Bruins choked in their last game with a 61-70 loss at Colorado, blowing a 57-55 lead with 8:11 remaining.  They couldn't handle the pressure of trying to win the Pac-12 in that game, and I don't expect them to handle it very well here at Oregon either.

The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings in this series, including a 96-75 home win for Oregon over UCLA last year.  The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Ducks are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Oregon is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Oregon Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -4

This looks like the perfect spot to back Villanova.  We will 'buy low' on the Wildcats after they just lost outright to Butler as an 11.5-point favorite.  They had beaten St. John's and Connecticut by a combined 31 points in their two games prior.  

So the lost to Butler was clearly an aberration.  The Wildcats were probably looking ahead to this game against Creighton.  They want revenge on the Bluejays in a big way.  They lost 70-86 at Creighton on February 13th about three weeks ago.  Everything went right for Creighton in that game as they shot 59.3% from the field and 46.2% from 3-point range compared to just 37.5% shooting for Villanova.  That's not going to happen again.

Villanova is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 16.1 points per game.  Creighton is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games, including an 8-point loss at Xavier last time out.  The Wildcats are 35-15-2 ATS int heir last 52 games following an ATS loss.

It's also worth noting Creighton is dealing with some turmoil within their program.  Head coach Doug McDermott used the word 'plantation' while ripping his team and had to come out and apologize for it.  At the very least it's a distraction they don't need right now.  At the most it will have caused some chemistry issues.  Either way I love the spot for the Wildcats.  Take Villanova Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 236.5

I'm going to continue riding this Pelicans OVER train until the books properly adjust.  They haven't adjusted enough tonight.  The OVER is 25-4 in Pelicans last 29 games overall.  The OVER is 12-1 in Pelicans last 13 games as well.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in 12 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime.  They have combined with their opponents to average 243.9 points per game at the end of regulation in those 12 games.  That's still 7 more points than this total of 236.5.  The OVER is 15-2 in Pelicans last 17 home games as well.

These teams just met on February 10th less than a month ago.  They combined for 245 points in that game with a 129-116 victory by Chicago.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with an average combined score of 240.8 points per game.  The fact of the matter is they just can't set these Pelicans totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.