Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Southern Miss PK 

Southern Miss was my pick to win their side of Conference USA, which is also the same side that Louisiana Tech resides in.  And thus this could end up being the de facto division title game.  And from what I’ve seen from both teams thus far, Southern Miss is the better team and should win this game Saturday afternoon. 

Southern Miss is a veteran team that returned 16 starters this year.  They have gone 4-2 against a tough schedule that ranks 104th in the country.  You’d think it would rank higher than that considering they are 4-2 with their only losses coming on the road to Alabama and Mississippi State from the SEC West.  They also won at Troy, and they have handled their business at home with three blowout victories. 

Louisiana Tech is 5-1, but it has played the 153rd-ranked schedule in the country.  The Bulldogs are way overvalued due to the ease of their schedule.  They lost 14-45 to Texas is the opener, and they have won five straight against cupcakes since in Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice and UMass.  And they even struggled to beat two of those teams, beating Grambling just 20-14 as 30-point home favorites, and topping Rice 23-20 as 8-point road favorites. 

Southern Miss is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Louisiana Tech.  I love Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham, who is completing 71.7% of his passes for 1,936 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has also rushed for three touchdowns and is averaging 10.8 yards per attempt.  He is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Southern Miss) - off a home win by 17 points or more, with 4-plus more starters returning than their opponent are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Golden Eagles are the much more veteran team in this matchup and should have no problem winning their fifth straight in this series over Louisiana Tech.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

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20* Michigan/Penn State ABC No-Brainer on Michigan +9.5 

I’m back to fading Penn State again this week.  I must really love misery.  But in all seriousness, this line has gotten out of hand.  It’s up to +9.5 now after opening around +7.  I would consider my loss on Iowa +3.5 last week a bad beat, and the Nittany Lions are getting too much respect for that win. 

The Hawkeyes outgained the Nittany Lions by 62 yards.  But they missed a field goal and came up short on a 2-point conversion to lose by 5.  They also fumbled a handoff inside their own 20 to gift wrap Penn State a touchdown.  And Iowa also failed to score a touchdown from first and goal from the 3-yard line.  Iowa was the right side in that game. 

Penn State is 6-0, but they have been outgained in three of their six games.  Not only were they outgained by Iowa, but they were also outgained at home by both Buffalo and Pitt.  I really think this is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  You’re going to hear a lot about Penn State playing at night and in a white out this week.  And it seems like everyone is on the Nittany Lions because of it.  I just think this is a great time to go contrarian. 

Michigan can still achieve all of its goals if it wins out.  I think we’re getting extra value on the Wolverines after their 42-25 win over Illinois last week.  The Wolverines were up 28-0 before taking their foot off the gas.  It’s like they were just ready to get to the Penn State game at halftime and forgot to play the second half. 

Penn State’s offense just doesn’t have the firepower to put Michigan away by double-digits.  Pitt held them to 17 points and Iowa held them to 17 points this season.  And Michigan has as good or better defense than both of those teams.  The Wolverines only allow 17.5 points, 283 yards per game this season and 4.2 yards per play this season.  I expect this to be an ugly, low-scoring Big Ten game.  So getting 9.5 points is a tremendous value. 

Michigan beat Penn State 42-7 last year and held them to just 186 total yards.  They outgained the Nittany Lions by 217 yards in the win.  The Wolverines are now 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Penn State may ultimately win this game, but they have to beat us by double-digits to get the cover, and I just don’t think they can. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Penn State) - after scoring and allowing 17 points or less in their last game are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Jim Harbaugh is 9-1 ATS vs. good rush defenses that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry in all games he has coached.  The Nittany Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia -3 

I really like the spot for Virginia here.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Notre Dame and Miami in games they felt like they should have won.  I had Virginia in both of those games and felt like I deserved to win them both as well.  Now the Cavaliers are back home here and still believe they can win the Coastal, but they certainly need to beat Duke if they are going to accomplish that goal. 

The Cavaliers were getting +10.5 at Notre Dame and lost by 15.  They were winning outright at halftime, and they were only outgained by 5 yards in that game, but they lost by 15 because they committed five turnovers. Then last week they were getting +3 at Miami.  They outgained the Hurricanes by 61 yards and shut down the Miami offense.  But Virginia left a ton of points in the board.  The Cavaliers had six trips inside the Miami 25-yards line and managed just 9 points in a 9-17 loss.  They failed to score a single touchdown. 

Now, it’s a great time to buy low on the Cavaliers after those two losses where they probably deserved to win both and should be 6-0.  And it’s time to sell high on Duke, which is coming off a misleading 41-23 home win over Georgia Tech, which is the worst team in the ACC.  The Blue Devils won by 18 and covered the 17.5-point spread despite getting outgained by the Yellow Jackets. 

This will easily be Duke’s toughest test since their 42-3 loss to Alabama in the opener.  Their last five games since have come against NC A&T, Middle Tennessee, VA Tech, Pitt and Georgia Tech.  And it’s worth noting that Duke lost at home to Pitt 30-33, while Virginia won 30-14 at Pitt to give these teams a common opponent. 

Virginia owns Duke, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while winning all four games by 7 points or more.  And those were some pretty poor Virginia teams, while this 2019 version is the best team they have had in years.  Duke is a team that likes to run the ball, averaging 183 yards per game on the ground.  They’ll get plenty of resistance from a Virginia defense that gives up just 90 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  That makes this a great matchup for the Cavaliers.  Take Virginia Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +21 

The Utah State Aggies are getting treated like the team they were last year and not like the team they are this year by oddsmakers.  They had one of their best seasons in program history last year and lost head coach Matt Wells to Texas Tech as a result.  Former Utah State head coach Gary Anderson has returned to the program, and the cupboard was left bare as the Aggies returned only nine starters this year. 

Utah State is off to a 3-2 start this season, but it only has one win by more than 10 points, and that came against FCS opponent Stony Brook.  In no way should the Aggies be favored by three touchdowns over Nevada here.  They only beat a bad Colorado State team 34-24 as 23.5-point favorites in their last home game, and they lost 6-42 at LSU last time out.  They simply aren’t nearly as good as they were last year. 

Nevada returned from its bye with a solid 41-38 home win against an improved San Jose State team last week.  Nevada was up 24-3 before taking its foot off the gas, so that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And it was the first start from former Florida State transfer Malik Henry at quarterback, and he was brilliant in leading the Wolf Pack to 41 points. 

Henry was the #2 dual-threat QB in the country coming out of high school, but he had some depression issues at FSU that held him back.  He has found a home here in Nevada now, and things are looking up for him after a great start last week.  Henry threw for 352 yards and a touchdown against SJSU last week.  Look for him to try and match Utah State QB Jordan Love score for score in this one. 

Nevada has had Utah State’s number in recent years.  Nevada is 8-3 SU in the last 11 meetings with its three losses coming by 4, 4 and 2 points.  As you can see, Utah State hasn’t beaten Nevada by more than 4 points in any of the last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Wolf Pack pertaining to this 21-point spread.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +21.5 

The Texas Longhorns are in a hangover spot here from their 27-34 loss to rival Oklahoma last week.  Their dreams of playing in the four-team playoff have been crushed now with losses to Oklahoma and LSU, and it’s tough to get back up off the mat after such a crushing defeat.  I look for them to go through the motions this week and fail to cover this massive 21.5-point spread against Kansas. 

I’ve been saying Texas is overrated since before the season, and it has proven to be true.  The Longhorns were fortunate to only lose 27-34 to Oklahoma.  They were outgained by 201 yards by the Sooners and outgained by 3.5 yards per play in that game.  Oklahoma averaged 7.7 yards per play while Texas only averaged 4.2 yards per play and was sacked nine times.  But Oklahoma had two turnovers deep in Texas territory which kept the game closer than the final score. 

Now Kansas and Texas have a common opponent in Oklahoma.  Kansas only lost 20-45 at home to Oklahoma and was only outgained by 191 yards in that game, covering the 32-point spread.  And now the Jayhawks have had two weeks to get ready for Texas after having their bye last week.  I think we get a big effort out of the Jayhawks because of it. 

Kansas has been a big thorn in Texas’ side in recent years.  The Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, pulling the 24-21 upset as 23.5-point dogs in 2016, only losing 27-42 as 32-point road favorites in 2017, and only losing 17-24 as 15.5-point home dogs last year.  The Jayhawks just seem to get up for Texas, while the Longhorns consistently overlook them. 

Texas is 0-6 ATS in home games with a total of 56.5 to 63 over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Kansas Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -1.5 

I believe the Wake Forest Demon Deacons got the humbling they needed last week against Louisville.  They opened 5-0 before losing to the Cardinals 59-62 at home last week.  It was a game they deserved to win as they outgained the Cardinals by 148 yards.  But because they lost that game and they aren’t 6-0 now, we are getting the Demon Deacons at only -1.5 when they would probably be more than 3-point favorites had they won that game. 

Florida State’s biggest rival is Clemson, and they lost to the Tigers 14-45 last week.  I think the Seminoles suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and won’t be up for Wake Forest this week as a result.  Clemson outgained the Seminoles by 299 yards and held them to just 253 yards while forcing four turnovers in the win. 

I realize Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman was knocked out of the Louisville game with a shoulder injury.  However, I don’t think there’s any difference between Newman and backup Sam Hartman, who gained starting experience for the Demon Deacons last year and is ready to go if called upon.  Hartman went 9-of-15 for 172 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a score in place of an injured Newman last week and nearly led the comeback against Louisville. 

The Seminoles will have their hands full against an explosive Wake Forest offense that puts up 39.7 points, 540 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They have a balanced attack with 209 rushing yards and 331 passing yards per game.  They are very tough to tame, which is bad news for a FSU defense that allows 32.2 points and 464 yards per game.   

Florida State is 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three years.  Florida State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech +18.5 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets right now.  They are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS this season, failing to cover a spread yet.  It was easy to see this was going to be a rebuilding year for the Yellow Jackets this season as they made the transition from Paul Johnson’s triple-option to Geoff Collins’ pro-style offense. 

After a slow start, I have seen some real signs of progress by the Yellow Jackets, and I think it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them now.  Two of their last three losses have been very misleading.  They lost 2-24 at Temple but were only outgained by 18 yards.  And last week they lost 23-41 at Duke, but actually outgained the Blue Devils by 6 yards.  If they can finish equal in stats against those two teams, they certainly can hang with Miami this week. 

I think it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Miami off its misleading 17-9 home win over Virginia last week.  The Hurricanes deserved to lose that game as they were outgained by 62 yards by Virginia.  The Cavaliers had six trips inside the Miami 25-yard line, but only managed 9 points and didn’t score a single touchdown.  I think the Hurricanes are now in a big letdown spot off that primetime win on National TV. 

And there were some real concerns about Miami coming into that Virginia game.  They had lost 35-42 at home to a Virginia Tech team that looked like they quit the previous week.  And before that, they only beat Central Michigan 17-12 at home as 30.5-point favorites.  This still isn’t a very good Miami team, and certainly not the type of team that should be laying a huge number to Georgia Tech here. 

Georgia Tech hasn’t lost by more than 17 points to Miami in any of the last eight meetings in this series, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Yellow Jackets pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.  The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 

Plays on any team (Georgia Tech) - after five or more consecutive losses against the spread against an opponent that is off one or more consecutive ATS wins are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This system just shows how profitable it is to back a team on a long ATS losing streak against a team on a winning ATS streak.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday. 

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State -3 

Of all the Power 5 teams that are still undefeated, both Baylor and Minnesota are clearly the two most overrated.  They are overrated because both have feasted on easy schedules, and both are very fortunate to be 6-0.  The Bears should have lost to both Iowa State and Texas Tech, winning those two games by a combined 5 points.  And their other four wins have come against Stephen F. Austin, Rice, UTSA and Kansas State. 

Baylor has played the 96th-toughest schedule this season according to the Sagarin ratings.  Oklahoma State has played the 36th-toughest schedule.  That’s a 60-spot difference in strength of schedule.  He actually has Oklahoma State rated higher than Baylor despite being 4-2, and I agree with him.  I think we are getting the Cowboys at a massive discount as only 3-point home favorites over the Bears here. 

Oklahoma State’s two losses have both come on the road to Texas (30-36) and Texas Tech (35-45).  That was not a bad loss to Texas, and the loss at Texas Tech was very fluky considering the Cowboys lost the turnover battle 5-0.  And I loved how QB Spencer Sanders took all the blame in the loss, saying he was solely responsible for the five turnovers and has to be better.  Keep in mind Baylor needed overtime to beat Texas Tech at home. 

Now, the Cowboys are in a great spot here coming off their bye week and returning home.  They have only played two home games compared to four road games this year, while Baylor has played four home games compared to only two road games.  And the Cowboys will be highly motivated to stay in Big 12 title contention in this must-win situation for them. 

There’s on injury for Baylor that is flying under the radar and not getting priced into the line.  LB Clay Johnson suffered a season-ending knee injury against Texas Tech last week.  Johnson leads the team with 58 tackles, and second place on the team has 30 tackles.  He is the heart and soul of the defense.  Now the Bears have to try and stop a Oklahoma State rushing attack that averages 279 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry without Johnson.  Expect Chuba Hubbard (1,094 yards, 13 TD, 6.8/carry) to have a massive day on the ground against this Baylor defense Saturday. 

Over the last 10 years, when Oklahoma State has been unranked and favored at home against a ranked team, they have gone a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with all three wins coming by double-digits.  The Cowboys are favored for good reason despite being unranked, but they aren’t favored by as much as they should be.  Baylor is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 trips to Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games after a game where they committed five or more turnovers.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.