*3 Star Play on Braves ML* Mike Soroka has a sparkling 1.01 ERA on the year. His strand rate is 87.2% so there's no way he'll keep it going at this rate, but Soroka has some very impressive advanced metrics. According to Baseball Savant, he has allowed a hard hit batted ball only 32.2% of the time this year. He has great control and this Cardinals offense has definitely slumped of late. Soroka has started 7 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in six of those seven starts. He has been really consistent

Dakota Hudson has been very inconsistent this year. Hudson has terrible control. He is walking 4.21 batters per nine innings, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. The Braves lineup is very deep and they have been swinging it very well of late.

The Braves have a big starting pitching edge here, and they are the team playing much better baseball right now. 

I think this price is too short.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Edwin Jackson in this one. Jackson has played on just about every team in the majors at this point, and he is near the end of his big league career. Jackson isn't a good starter anymore. There is nothing in his statistics in the minors or the bigs so far this year to suggest he will have any success. He has very little control and doesn't miss enough bats.

Cal Quantrill does have a high ceiling, and he goes against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that isn't very good. Quantrill is backed by a top five bullpen, while the Blue Jays bullpen is mediocre. 

The Blue Jays have had fortunate batted ball luck in at bats with runners in scoring position so far this year. The Padres are a much better team this year, and the oddsmakers have been underpricing them of late.

I'll fade Jackson at this short price. Toronto is 1-6 in their last 7 home games. 

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games.

Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games.

The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down. 

This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA.

I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points. 

This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense.

Take the under.