Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Overs have been almost automatic in the CFL this season as the oddsmakers struggle to catch up with rule changes that have produced much higher-scoring games than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years. I think we're actually set up with value on the 'under' on Saturday, however, as the struggling Argonauts and Lions do battle in Vancouver. Note that B.C. is forced to move forward without QB Nathan Rourke due to injury at this point. Backup Chase Brice struggled mightily in his absence and I can't help but feel we'll see the Lions scale back the offense in an effort to get things turned around without Rourke this week. The Argos would probably welcome a more settled affair as they've struggled during a brutal stretch to open the season. They've yet to play a true home game due to the World Cup taking up residence in their home stadium in Toronto. Neither team has been able to get much going on the ground, and one-dimensional offenses don't tend to thrive in the CFL game. I think the Lions defense in particular can turn in a solid effort here but I have little faith in B.C.'s offense getting much going to help this total along. The knee-jerk reaction from most bettors will likely be to back the 'over' once again but I feel the number will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers offense has been a little more inconsistent than we've come to expect lately but that didn't stop them from securing a 4-2 win over the slumping Mets last night. We have an even better starting pitching matchup on Saturday as Los Angeles sends Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the hill against Nolan McLean. Yamamoto tossed a complete game against the Yankees last time out. Current Mets hitters are just 9-for-41 (.220) with a .663 OPS against him and that includes Juan Soto going 1-for-3 with a home run (he was forced to leave last night's game due to injury so his status for Saturday is up in the air). It's hard not to consider McLean an All-Star snub as he has posted a 3.30 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He hasn't seen much of the Dodgers but what he has seen, he has liked, holding their current hitters to just one single in 19 at-bats. Both bullpens are in good shape entering this contest as well with all hands likely on deck on both sides. Add in the fact that Citi Field is pitcher-friendly and New York is forecast to experience clear skies and relatively low humidity on Saturday and this play sets up nicely. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Guardians offense has gone ice cold over the last couple of games and will run into Rays starter Nick Martinez in excellent form on Saturday. Martinez has been another in a long line of underrated acquisitions by Rays management, earning an All-Star nod with a 9-2 record and a 3.89 FIP and 1.12 WHIP this season. He's allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and exactly one earned run in three of those outings. Not only that but he's worked at least into the sixth inning in all four of those starts and hasn't needed to throw more than 85 pitches. Current Guardians hitters are just 8-for-45 (.178) with a .578 OPS against the veteran right-hander. Tanner Bibee will counter for Cleveland. Speaking of solid form, he checks in having allowed just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings over his last two starts. Contrary to his career splits, he's actually been better on the road lately. Over his last five road outings he has held the Marlins to one run over six innings, shut the White Sox out over six innings, shut the Rangers out over eight innings, and allowed one run over eight innings against the Tigers (he also gave up four runs, three of them earned, over 5 1/3 innings against the Astros over that stretch). Current Rays hitters have been handcuffed to the tune of 12-for-63 (.190) with a .615 OPS against Bibee. Take the under (9*).

A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

Dylan Cease displayed plenty of frustration during his most recent outing as he gave up five runs, only three of them earned, over six innings in a 7-1 loss to the Rays on Monday. I do think we'll see him bounce back in this matchup. Note that Cease owns a 2.39 FIP and 1.14 WHIP on the season. The Red Sox, while piling up wins, aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now, ranking 13th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Current Red Sox hitters are a combined 18-for-68 (.265) with a .739 OPS against Cease - good but certainly not great numbers. Boston will hand the ball to Sonny Gray. He has quietly turned in a tremendous season so far with a 3.65 FIP and 1.12 WHIP. He enters this outing having allowed one run or less in five consecutive starts. Current Blue Jays hitters are 28-for-105 (.267) with a .815 OPS against Gray. The forecast calls for near perfect conditions in Boston on Saturday. Clear with relatively low humidity and that should work in the favor of the elite starting pitchers taking the ball. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Team Weatherspoon and Team Cooper at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

Last year's WNBA All-Star Game totalled 282 points. Of course that's only a faded memory if a memory at all for most bettors. This isn't the NBA so a lot of bettors will dismiss the offensive ability to get to a total this high in any WNBA setting. I actually feel the total should be set considerably higher. This is a showcase of talent more than anything else and there's never been more talent on display than we've seen so far this season. Games surging into the 200-point range and higher have been far more commonplace than we've seen in years' past. I certainly expect some carry-over into this exhibition affair where we'll see points aplenty and very little defense played. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Toronto minus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday.

The Argonauts have still yet to play a game at home this season with the World Cup previously taking up residence in their home stadium in Toronto. After Saturday's game they'll finally look ahead to their 'home opener' following a bye week. Needless to say, the importance of this game has been ratcheted up thanks to a three-game slide, both SU and ATS. We do know the Argos are capable of better. They opened the season with a hard-fought 37-30 loss in Montreal before delivering convincing victories in Ottawa and Saskatchewan. Save for a blowout defeat in Calgary on July 2nd, Toronto hasn't been all that far off. It has been moving the ball through the air at will and has turned it over a grand total of five times over its last four games. That's in stark contrast to the Lions, who haven't been able to get anything going offensively and have committed a whopping eight turnovers over their last three contests. The Lions have been held to fewer than 80 rushing yards in three of five games to date. Of course, they're up against it now with QB Nathan Rourke sidelined due to injury. Take Toronto (8*).