Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

I think both of these teams are trending in the right direction offensively right now and while the Reds will have their ace taking the ball in Chase Burns, I still think we'll see enough runs to cruise 'over' the reasonable total. This sets up as a bullpen game of sorts for the Mets with Tobias Myers getting the start in what is likely an 'opener' role. Of concern, the New York bulllpen has been overworked lately with four different relievers having thrown 30+ pitches over the last three days. Of course, the Reds bullpen has been shaky all season, logging a 5.02 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with 16 saves converted and 15 blown and also enters having been overworked in a weekend series against Arizona. Burns has the potential to be one of baseball's best starters and has posted a solid 3.24 FIP and 0.99 WHIP so far this season. With that being said, he has wobbled a bit lately, allowing six earned runs in 16 2/3 innings of work over his last three starts and needed 105 pitches to get through just 5 1/3 innings against the Padres last time out. Current Mets hitters are just 4-for-20 against him but none of them have seen him more than three times and three of their four hitters that have seen him three times have collected a hit. The Reds enter this game ranked seventh in the majors in xwOBA over the last week while the Mets sit in 19th but that does represent an improvement over earlier stretches where they were among the worst in baseball at the plate. Take the over (10*).

Group G Game of the Year. My selection is on Iran -0.5 goals over New Zealand at 9 pm et on Monday.

I don't expect Iran to get a lot of support from casual bettors leading up to the Group G opener between these two teams at SoFi Stadium on Monday. After all, the Iranians face an uphill battle travel-wise, forced to fly into and out of the United States in a 24-hour window for each match. I do think we'll see a resilient Iran squad, however, and believe it draws a favorable opening matchup against New Zealand. The All Whites might just be one of the weakest teams in the World Cup field this year. They enter this contest having conceded at least a goal in 11 straight contests and that's concerning as they figure to have difficulty breaking down the Iranian defense in this one. You would have to go back four matches to find the last time Iran failed to deliver an outright victory. In a match where goals are projected to come at a premium, I'm confident backing Iran to find a game-clincher at a reasonable price. Take Iran -0.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday.

I think we'll see the Valkyries continue to lean on their defense as long as the shots aren't falling offensively. They check in having connected on 28, 27 and 24 field goals during their current three-game ATS slide. On the flip side, their defense has been on point as they've held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 30 made field goals. The Sparks have reeled off three straight victories and certainly pose a challenge. They've benefited from getting off a whopping 75+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games. I don't expect them to dictate the tempo here, however, noting that Golden State has held five of its last six opponents to fewer than 70 field goal attempts and comes in rested having not played since Friday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Las Vegas at 8 pm et on Monday.

We faded the Wings on Saturday as they suffered an 'upset' loss in Portland. I won't hesitate to go the other way on Monday and grab the points with Dallas in an underdog role at home against Las Vegas. The Aces are of course red hot but they're well into uncharted territory having won a season-high six straight games. Of note, their most recent defeat came on this same floor against the Wings back on May 28th. As I always like to note, 'revenge' is a dish best served at home rather than on the road. The Wings haven't dropped the cash in consecutive games since a two-game slide in the second week of May. Look for them to bounce back on Monday. Take Dallas (8*).

Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Portland at 8 pm et on Monday.

I'm not sure the betting marketplace is properly quantifying the Lynx's dominance this season. Minnesota does check in off a hard-fought loss in Las Vegas on Saturday but that only served to snap its eight-game winning streak. The Lynx are still 7-2 ATS over their last nine games and I look for them to dispose of the expansion Fire without much difficulty on Monday. Portland is coming off an 'upset' win at home against Dallas on Saturday. The Fire were fortunate that the Wings shot poorly in that contest. Note that Portland has now allowed its last three opponents to hoist up 75, 72 and 74 field goal attempts - that's what I like to call 'matador-like' defense. The Lynx are poised to take advantage as they enter having knocked down 37, 38 and 36 field goals over their last three games. Take Minnesota (10*).