Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

My selection is on Chicago over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The White Sox have looked awful in the first three games of this series - there's no question about that. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday as they send their best starter to the hill in Dylan Cease against Jordan Lyles of the Orioles. Cease has quietly put together a terrific campaign so far, recording a 2.59 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing just under 3.9 runs per nine innings. In fact, he hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last five starts. While the White Sox bullpen has struggled for the most part this season, it has actually shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games entering yesterday's action (it tossed 2+ innings of shutout ball in yesterday's loss). Jordan Lyles has looked very 'Jordan Lyles-like' for the Orioles this season, posting a 4.31 FIP and 1.50 WHIP and giving up just shy of 5.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox saw him last September and lit him up for five earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings in a 7-2 victory. Take Chicago (6*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

The Pirates have certainly been snake-bitten in this series, dropping consecutive games by a single run, one coming in extra innings and the other in walk-off fashion in a game they led 5-3 in the eighth inning yesterday. Here, I don't anticipate the game being as close as the Rays send their ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against rookie Roansy Contreras of the Buccos. McClanahan has firmly planted himself in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation this season, posting a 2.74 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.35 runs per nine innings. The Rays have dropped his last two starts with each of those coming against the best team in baseball, the New York Yankees. Prior to that they had won each of McClanahan's last seven trips to the hill. Contreras is having a fine season by rookie standards. However, I will point out that he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season and in the previous two outings he gave up 11 hits and five earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings of work. Contreras checks in with a 4.11 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, again those are solid numbers, but don't really compare to McClanahan's. Also note that the Rays should continue to have a big advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season. The Pirates 'pen has really struggled, entering yesterday's game with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over its last seven games (and proceeded to cough up the two-run lead in yesterday's loss). Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (9*).

My selection is on New York over Houston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Yankees could just as easily have dropped all three games in this series as they've only managed to salvage the opener in come-from-behind walk-off fashion. I do look for them to close out the series on a positive note on Sunday. Jose Urquidy will take the ball for Houston. He checks in sporting a pedestrian 4.75 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, allowing north of 11.0 walks and just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Yankees starter Nestor Cortes Jr. He has posted a 3.32 FIP and 0.96 WHIP, allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings. Cortes has yielded 4.8 fewer hits per nine innings compared to Urquidy. As I've mentioned previously in this series, the bullpens are virtually a wash with both relief corps' pitching effectively. Here, I look for the Yankees bats against Urquidy to prove to be the difference. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 6 on Sunday. This series has certainly taken a turn since Tampa Bay delivered a 6-2 win in Game 3. Since then, we've seen consecutive 3-2 results. Now with the series shifting back to Tampa, there's little reason to expect anything different as the Lightning once again try to stay alive in this series. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay, while known for its offensive prowess, has been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing only 2.5 goals per game. It gave up just four goals in regulation time against the high-powered Avs offense in Games 3 and 4 here at home. In fact, it has held Colorado to exactly two goals in regulation time in three straight contests. The Avs can play some defense as well. They've allowed less than 3.0 goals per game in the playoffs. On the three previous occasions they've come off a loss in these playoffs, they've given up exactly two goals in their next game each time, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Lightning in Game 3, the Avalanche in Game 4 and the Lightning on the puck-line in Game 4. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears once again and back Colorado as it looks to hoist the Stanley Cup on Sunday night in Tampa. Credit the Lightning for battling their way to a hard-fought 3-2 victory in Game 5 of this series on Friday. It wasn't all that difficult to see coming, however, as we're talking about the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. The fourth win in a series is always the most difficult when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Avalanche have found that out first hand in each and every series so far. Just as they did against St. Louis in the second round, I look for Colorado to bounce back from a home loss in Game 5 with a road win in Game 6. There's no question the Avalanche have been the better team in this series but they obviously felt the pressure playing in front of the Cup-starved (Colorado's last Stanley Cup was won in 2001) home faithful. Look for the Avs to play much looser in Game 6 and ultimately prevail. Take Colorado (10*).