Florida State vs LSU NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction September 4, 2022
Posted 2 years ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
Florida State vs LSU September 4 @ New Orleans LA
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: Florida State + 3, LSU -3
Moneyline: Florida State +127, LSU -152
Total: 51.5
Preview
LSU opens as just a three-point favorite in their first game under new head coach Brian Kelly. Mike Norvell’s Seminoles lead the all time series 7-2. The game takes place at the Ceasars Superdome, formerly known as the Louisiana Superdome or the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. While it’s the home of the New Orleans Saints, it’s located only an hour’s drive from Baton Rouge.
The Seminoles will have the advantage of playing a tune up game in Week Zero versus Duquesne, which should allow them to work out the kinks and perhaps be a little sharper heading into Week 1. Brian Kelly isn’t taking his opponent lightly, having positive things to say about the direction the FSU programming is going: “I think probably more than anything else, (there’s more) fight in that team,” Kelly said during SEC media days at the College Football Hall of Fame. “I thought they fought for four quarters against Notre Dame last year, and that has a lot to do with buy-in.”
Florida State
- 5-7 overall in 2o21
- 4-4 in the ACC in 2021
- 6-6 against the spread in 2021
In two seasons in Tallahassee Mike Norvell has gone just 8-13, but he appears to have the program trending upward. Last year they lost their season opener by a score of 41-38 in overtime to Kelly’s Notre Dame Irish, and they lost their regular season finale by a score of 24-21 at Florida. Winning one of those games would have made the difference between a winning or a losing season.
Norvell has high hopes for sophomore quarterback Jordan Travis, who threw for 1,539 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions while starting seven games last year. Florida State won five of those seven games, so they are optimistic about what he can do if he stays healthy.
Bringing in four Power Five transfers at wide receiver will give him plenty of talent to work with. former Oregon wideout Mycah Pittman is expected to be the best of the bunch. The Seminoles were one of the top teams in the country in the red zone last year, scoring touchdowns on 74 percent of their possessions inside the 20 yard line.
LSU
- 6-7 overall in 2021
- 3-5 in the SEC in 2021
- 5-7-1 against the spread in 2021
New head coach Brian Kelly didn’t waste any time setting the bar high: “I wanted to coach the very best players in the country who are afforded the best resources in the country and play in the best conference in the country,” Kelly told his new team back on Day 1 in December. “That’s an incredible challenge to a football coach. I get that here. I get to work with the best athletic director and the best president, all in alignment to get to the end goal of winning the national championship.”
He will take over a program that has lost more games than they have won since their 2019 perfect season and national championship run. They played their bowl game in January with just 39 scholarship players, giving Kelly the daunting task of getting that number up to 84 by August.
The Tigers will have experience at the most important position, with sixth year senior Myles Brennan back at quarterback. LSU also has a stud wide receiver in Kayshon Boutte, who caught 38 passes for 509 yards and nine touchdowns last season. Expect him to double those totals here in 2o22.
Relevant Trends
- The Seminoles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
- The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
- The under is 19-8 in the Seminoles last 27 versus the SEC.
- The under is 6-2 in the Seminoles last eight games in September.
- The over is 10-3-1 in the Tigers last 14 non-conference games.
Prediction: Florida State 28 – LSU 21
The fact that the Seminoles get a chance to play a warm up game against an inferior opponent a week prior to this game should put them in an advantageous situation. Kelly is asked to do an awful lot to get this program back up to speed in the SEC, and it’s unlikely to happen overnight.
Before you dive into the Week 1 betting action, you might want to consult Kyle Hunter. His impressive resume includes finishing #1 overall with college football in 2021, Top 5 All Time with college football, and he was named Handicapper of the Decade in 2020.
