Florida Gators vs Utah Utes NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction August 31, 2023
Posted 10 months ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 2 comments
Florida vs Utah August 31, 2023 @ Salt Lake City UT
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: Utah -9, Florida +9
Moneyline: Utah-365, Florida +285
Total: 50
Preview
The Utes will be looking to avenge a Week 1 loss at Florida last year. Cam Rising was picked off on what looked like it would be the game winning drive in the final seconds. Rising is back for his senior year and Utah is still a contender in the PAC12. The Gators are rebuilding, and they are considered a longshot to make a bowl game this year.
The Utes haven’t lost at home since 2020 (33-17 vs USC), and they haven’t lost a non-conference home game since 2007 (20-12 vs Air Force). They haven’t been a great bet when asked to cover a big number in non-conference games in recent seasons, failing to cover in 11 of their last 15 versus non-conference opponents.
Florida
- 6-7 Overall in 2022
- 3-5 in the SEC in 2022
- 7-6 ATS in 2022
Billy Napier faces an uphill battle in his second season as head coach at Florida. He lost starting quarterback Anthony Richardson and star offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence to the NFL Draft. Graham Mertz transferred from Wisconsin, and he will likely be Richardson’s replacement. He lacks the athleticism that Richardson possessed, and his passing stats were pretty pedestrian at Wisconsin.
The strength of this team will be in the backfield with a deep corps of running backs, and an offensive line that has been upgraded in other areas to compensate for the loss of O’Cyrus. They face a tough schedule, and they need to improve significantly on defense after ranking near the bottom of the SEC last season.
Utah
- 10-4 Overall in 2022
- 7-2 in the PAC12 in 2022
- 8-6 ATS in 2022
Utah brings back 14 starters from the squad that won the PAC12 Championship for the second consecutive season in 2022. Cam Rising suffered a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl, and his status for Week 1 is still in question. You might not want to make a move on betting this game until you can verify that Rising is actually going to play, but it sounds like he is trending in the right direction.
Last year’s leading receiver Dalton Kinkaid was drafted in the first round by the Buffalo Bills, but TE Brant Kuithe is expected to be the top target in his senior season. He had nine catches for 105 yards and a TD in the loss at Florida last season.
The defensive line is a strength, packed with veterans with starting experience, anchored by All-Pac-12 defensive tackle Junior Tafuna. This has them well equipped to neutralize the Gators run heavy offense.
Relevant Trends:
- The Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- The Gators are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
- The over is 18-7-1 in Gators last 26 road games.
- The over is 5-1 in Utes last six non-conference games.
- The Gators are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Prediction: Utah 31 – Florida 17
History favors the home team here, I don’t think most people realize how good Utah actually is at home. It’s been 16 years since this team lost at home against a non-conference opponent. Graham Mertz is a big question mark for the Gators, and as long as Rising is healthy the Utes have a huge edge at the quarterback position.
This is a hostile environment and a tough opponent for Mertz to make his debut against. We expect Florida to struggle offensively, and it’s asking too much for them to hang with a conference champion bringing back 14 starters including a senior quarterback.
2 comments on Florida Gators vs Utah Utes NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction August 31, 2023
This is one of the deepest teams Utah has ever had. Last year was supposed to be a retool and they still won the Pac-12. I kind of feel sorry for Florida to be honest. They’re going to get punched in the mouth so early. The pass rush is going to be lights out. I love Gator fans. They always back their team, but It’s not going to be pretty in sack lake city. Utah is scary good this
I think it’s closer than “experts” want people to believe. AR was extremely erratic and lost FL 2 games on his own (KY and vandy). With a defense in the 40 to 60 range FL should win more games the not as they are just more athletic than most of the competition. It will come down to discipline for FL; can they as a team out execute the expectations. If so the narrative immediately changes. If (and that’s the main issue with FL) Billy is given the time to execute the plan FL will be a powerhouse again.