SMU vs FSU NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction September 7, 2026

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: SMU -2.5, FSU +2.5
Moneyline: SMU -130, FSU +110
Total: 53

SMU vs FSU Preview

These two teams appear to be trending in opposite directions. The Seminoles were 13-0 and ACC Champions in 2023, but it has been all downhill since then. They got clobbered by Georgia in their bowl game after both teams were snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee. They lost 10 games the following season, and despite a convincing win over Alabama at the beginning of last season, things spiralled out of control shortly after.

Mike Norvell is coaching for his job, and the most likely result is a $50 Million Dollar buyout at some point during or at the conclusion of this season.

SMU on the other hand made the Playoffs in 2024, and won nine games last year. They were one of just two teams to defeat the Miami Hurricanes, and their three losses came by a combined margin of just seven points.

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SMU Betting Preview

• Head coach: Rhett Lashlee
• Offensive coordinator: Rob Likens
• Defensive coordinator: Maurice Crum Jr.
• 9-4 Overall in 2025
• 6-2 in the ACC in 2025
• 6-7 ATS in 2025

Rhett Lashlee only brings back eight starters from last year, but senior quarterback Kevin Jennings was third in the conference in passing last season. He’s back, surrounded by transfers at wide receiver from Alabama and East Carolina.

The Mustangs should have one of the top offensive lines in the ACC, and Jennings appears to be primed to have a big year. The schedule is manageable with no regular season game against Miami, they are projected to be a favorite in 10 of their 12 games.

They have the second best odds to win the ACC behind Miami, and are priced at 4-1 to make the College Football Playoffs.

Florida State

Betting Preview

• Head coach: Mike Norvell
• Offensive coordinator: Tim Harris Jr.
• Defensive coordinator: Tony White
• 5-7 Overall in 2025
• 2-6 in the ACC in 2025
• 5-7 ATS in 2025

The only reason Mike Norvell is still the head coach in Tallahassee is because the Seminoles can’t afford to buy him out of his contract. That means the more money they give him to buy players in the off-season, the further away they are from getting rid of him. That might be why they signed a backup quarterback from a losing SEC team to take over the offense in 2026.

Ashton Daniels has thrown for 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions in his career, and he reportedly signed for $1 Million dollars. He’s had some moments at Stanford and at Auburn, but it’s hard to believe he can be the guy to turn this program around.

Relevant Trends

• FSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 overall.
• The Under is 7-3 in SMU’s last 10 overall.
• FSU is 3-7 in their last 10 overall.
• The Under is 5-1 in FSU’s last 6 overall.
• SMU is 7-10 in their last 10 overall.

PREDICTION: SMU 30 – FSU 21

While this looks like a mismatch, we can’t forget that in a similar spot last year the Seminoles embarrassed an Alabama team that came in as a far bigger favorite. That said, it’s tough to feel like Norvell is all that motivated here in 2026. If he wins games and keeps his job, then he doesn’t get the massive $50 Million dollar buyout. He might just be in cruise control, as he is going to win financially either way.