Notre Dame vs Ohio State NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction, September 3, 2022
Posted 4 years ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
Notre Dame vs Ohio State September 3, 2022 @ Columbus, Ohio
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: Notre Dame +14.5, Ohio State -14.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame +420, Ohio State -650
Total: 58
Preview
The Buckeyes host the Irish in a primetime matchup in Week 1 that features two teams expected to contend for a place in the College Football Playoffs. These two teams finished 5th and 6th respectively in last seasons playoff rankings, both going 11-1 overall.
ESPN’s College Football GameDay is no stranger to Buckeyes games, and the crew will in Columbus for Ohio State’s season opener. It will be the 54th time that the Buckeyes appear on the show, more than any other school.
It will be a homecoming for Notre Dame’s new head coach Marcus Freeman. The Ohio native played for the Buckeyes from 2004-2008.
Notre Dame
- 11-2 overall in 2021
- 9-4 against the spread in 2021
Brian Kelly may be the winningest coach in Notre Dame history, but during his tenure the Irish failed to get over the hump. Blowout losses in the National Championship Game, the ACC Championship Game and two first round playoff games, players and fans were ready for a change.
When Brady Quinn introduced Marcus Freeman as the new head coach, the players erupted with an emotional response. “We’re going to out-work everybody in the country. We’re going to do things that no one else has done. We want to be unique in how we develop relationships.” – said Freeman.
While there is uncertainty at the quarterback position with Drew Pyne and Tyler Buchner battling for the starters job replacing Jack Coan. Whoever wins the starters job will be playing behind an excellent offensive line, with Jarrett Patterson (one of the nation’s top centers), sophomore left tackle Joe Alt and redshirt freshman right tackle Blake Fisher.
The defense is loaded with talent, including DE Isaiah Foskey who is projected to be a potential 1st round pick in 2023. Linebacker Marist Liufau returns from injury, and leading tackler JD Bertrand.
Ohio State
- 11-2 overall in 2021
- 8-1 in the BIG10 in 2021
- 6-6-1 against the spread in 2021
The Buckeyes finished first in the BIG10 in scoring last season, averaging 45.7 points per game. That’s 10 points per game more than the #2 scoring offense of Michigan. With C.J. Stroud returning at quarterback, they are primed to pick up right where they left off last season.
TreVeyon Henderson ran for over 1,200 yards and scored 15 rushing TDs last season, and he has a chance to improve on those numbers in 2022. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the team’s leading receiver last season, and if his performance in the Rose Bowl (15 receptions, 347 yards and 3 TDs) is any indication he could have a huge year.
Ultimately it was the defense that let the Buckeyes down last year. They ranked ninth in the BIG10 allowing over 22 points per game, and they gave up 42 points in a loss at Michigan in late November.
Relevant Trends
- The over is 7-2 in the Fighting Irish last nine versus the Big Ten.
- The Fighting Irish are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six versus the Big Ten.
- The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
- The Fighting Irish are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
- The over is 4-1 in the Fighting Irish last five games in September.
Prediction: Ohio State 31 – Notre Dame 28
If you look at the Buckeyes loss to Michigan at the end of last season, they gave up almost 300 rushing yards and six rushing TDs to the Wolverines. Notre Dame comes in with an outstanding offensive line and some talented running backs, so expect them to have success running the ball here.
C.J. Stroud should be able to put enough points on the board to escape with a victory, but the bookmakers have the Buckeyes favored by two scores. We are expecting this game to be a back-and-forth tilt, with plenty of drama going down to the wire.
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