North Carolina Tar Heels vs South Carolina Gamecocks NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction September 2, 2023
Posted 10 months ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
North Carolina vs South Carolina September 2, 2023 @ Charlotte NC
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: North Carolina -3, South Carolina +3
Moneyline: North Carolina -150, South Carolina +126
Total: 62
Preview
These teams last met in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in 2021, and the Gamecocks won outright 38-21 as a double digit underdog. Once again the Tar Heels will come in as the favorite, despite the fact that these teams finished last season trending in opposite directions. South Carolina closed out last season with huge upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson. The Tar Heels started last year winning nine of their first 10, but ended on a three game losing streak.
Both teams will come in with a high powered offense and an experienced star quarterback. The bookmakers are expecting plenty of scoring, setting the total at 62. These teams have played each other five times since 2007, and not one of those games saw more than 60 combined points.
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North Carolina
- 9-5 Overall in 2022
- 6-2 in the ACC in 2022
- 6-7-1 ATS in 2022
Drake Maye lead the ACC in passing last year throwing for over 4,000 yards with 38 touchdowns and just seven picks. He helped the Tar Heels finish ranked 2nd nationally in total offense in 2022. North Carolina will replace their top two receivers with a pair of high profile transfers from Georgia Tech and Kent State (Nate McCollum and Tez Walker). The have returning talent at tight-end and depth in the backfield.
North Carolina ranked dead last in the ACC in scoring defense last year, allowing 31 points per game. They ranked 128th in sacks and 129th in tackles for a loss out of 131 FBS teams, While they brought in a few transfers to make improvement, it could be unrealistic to expect a complete turnaround overnight.
South Carolina
- 8-5 Overall in 2022
- 4-4 in the SEC in 2022
- 7-6 ATS in 2022
The Gamecocks finished strong with back to back wins over ranked teams at the end of last season. Spencer Rattler threw for 798 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions in wins over Clemson and Tennessee. The offensive line wasn’t spectacular last year, and they have holes to fill after left tackle Jaylen Nichols suffered a significant injury in the spring game.
The defense was lousy last year, particularly against the run. They allowed 192 rushing yards per game in 2022, only Texas A&M allowed more in the SEC. The Gamecocks have to replace most of their offensive line, and both starting linebackers.
Relevant Trends:
- The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- The Gamecocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
- The Over is 4-0 in the Gamecocks last 4 non-conference games.
- The under is 14-6 in the Gamecocks last 20 versus the ACC.
- The home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Prediction: North Carolina 44 – South Carolina 33
These teams have plenty in common, each stacked on offense with a Heisman candidates at quarterback. Neither team was able to stop anybody on defense last year, and that could be a recipe for a high scoring game in Week 1. Both these teams averaged over 30 points per game on offense and allowed more than 30 points per game on defense in 2022.
North Carolina won 63-61 at Appalachian State last September, and this game has the potential to be another shootout early in the season.
