LSU vs Florida State NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction September 3, 2023

Posted 1 year ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  0 comments

LSU vs FSU September 3, 2023 @ Orlando FL.

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: LSU-2.5, FSU +2.5
Moneyline: LSU -140, FSU +115
Total: 56.5

Preview

This game has a potential revenge angle after the Tigers lost 24-23 on a missed extra point with zeros on the clock in Week 1 versus Florida State last year. Both these teams are ranked in the Top 10 in the country in the first edition of the AP Top 25.

Florida State is one of the favorites to make the College Football Playoffs with odds of +$333 at BET365. LSU isn’t far behind priced at +$400. Last year’s game was decided by one point, and the bookmakers are expecting another close game here in Orlando in Week 1.

LSU opened as a slight favorite, but the public money is likely to be coming in on the Seminoles closer to game time.

LSU

• 10-4 Overall in 2022
• 6-2 in the SEC in 2022
• 8-6 ATS in 2022

The Tigers bring back starting quarterback Jayden Daniels and the entire offensive line from the team that finished first in the SEC West a year ago. They lost wide receiver Kayshon Boutte to the NFL draft, but Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. return.

Aaron Anderson transferred from Alabama, and is expected to play a key role. The backfield has been bolstered by the addition of RB Logan Diggs, who transferred from Notre Dame. He ran for 822 yards and four TDs for the Irish in 2022.

A talented defensive line remains intact, but the Tigers had to dip into the transfer portal to fill holes in the secondary. Denver Harris (Texas A&M) and Duce Chestnut (Syracuse) are expected to start at corner. Greg Brooks Jr., Major Burns and Sage Ryan return at safety and nickel but it remains to be seen if this unit will be good enough to handle the top offenses they will face in the SEC.

FSU

• 10-3 Overall in 2022
• 5-3 in the ACC in 2022
• 8-5 ATS in 2022

The Seminoles thrived in the role of the underdog last year, but they have far higher expectations coming into this season. With eight starters returning on offense, including quarterback Jordan Travis, Florida State is considered a legit contender for the College Football Playoffs.

Travis threw for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions with a 64% completion percentage in 2022. He was first in the ACC in yards per pass (9.1) and he ran for 417 yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

Wide receiver Johnny Wilson is expected to be his top target, and at 6-foot-7 he will be a match-up nightmare for the opposition.

Relevant Trends:

• The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
  
• The Seminoles are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
  
• The Over is 8-3 in the Seminoles last 11 neutral site games.
  
• The Over is 5-1 in the Tigers last six neutral site games.
  
• The Over is 13-5-1 in the Tigers last 19 non-conference games.
  

Prediction: LSU 24 – FSU 27

The Seminoles will be the underdog once again, but another upset may be in the works. FSU running back Trey Benson says: “Like I said, taking it day by day, blocking out all the noise,” Benson said during a press conference on Wednesday morning. “Two teams in the top 10, hey, it’s going to be a showdown but just taking it day by day, each game by each game, and we’re just ready to go.” Benson ran for 990 yards and 13 touchdowns on 154 carries last season. The sky is the limit for this Florida State team.

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