LSU Tigers vs USC Trojans NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction September 1, 2024
Posted 3 months ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
LSU vs USC Septermber 1, 2024 @ Las Vegas, NV
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: LSU -6, USC +6
Moneyline: LSU -200, USC-180
Total: 63.5
Preview
The LSU Tigers will play USC in Las Vegas in a rare Sunday night game in Week 1. These teams face similar challenges heading into the 2024 season.
Both teams will replace their starting quarterback, and not just any starting quarterback. Jayden Daniels won the Heisman last year, and Caleb Williams was the Heisman winner the previous season.
Both teams need to make improvements on defense, and both teams will bring in a new defensive coordinator to facilitate that improvement.
LSU
- 10-3 Overall in 2023
- 6-2 in the SEC in 2023
- 8-5 ATS in 2023
The Tigers ranked 1st nationally in scoring last season averaging 45.5 points per game. They turn to Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback, and he is entering his 4th season at LSU. He has looked good in limited action, and he threw for 395 yards and 3 TDs on 31-of-45 passing in a 35-31 win over Wisconsin in the bowl game in January.
The defense was a weakness last year, and they bring in Blake Baker from Missouri to be the new defensive coordinator. He has his work cut out for him after the Tigers allowed a woeful 416 yards and 28 points per game in 2023.
USC
- 8-5 Overall in 2023
- 5-4 in the PAC12 in 2023
- 4-9 ATS in 2023
The Trojans will turn to redshirt junior Miller Moss, who also had an impressive showing in last year’s bowl game. He threw for 372 yards, 6 TDs and 4 INTs on 23-of-33 passing in a 42-28 win over Louisville.
The offense should be in good shape with Lincoln Riley leading the way. He’s coached three Heisman winners over the past decade (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams).
As much as Riley has a reputation as an offensive genius, he as just as well known for defensive futility. The Trojans allowed 34.9 points per game last season, ranking 123rd nationally.
D’Anton Lynn will come over from UCLA as the new defensive coordinator, and he will try to pick up the pieces after Alex Grinch failed to turn things around.
Relevant Trends
- The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall.
- The Tigers are 12-4 SU in their last 16 in Week 1.
- The Over is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 overall.
- The Trojans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Trojans are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played in September.
PREDICTION: LSU 38 – USC 35
These teams are so similar, wit the same strengths and weaknesses. This truly could be anybody’s game, but the one certainty is that we should see plenty of scoring. Whether or not the new defensive coordinators make an impact will remain to be seen, but we aren’t expecting it to happen in Week 1.
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