Ricky’s 8* play on the over Mets/Phillies.

Both Steven Matz (5-5, 4.28 ERA) and Zach Eflin (6-7, 2.83) have looked brilliant at times this year and pedestrian in others. Both the Mets and Phillies are in desperate need of victories and I think these teams will chase these suspect starters early. Philadelphia enters off a three game series loss vs. the lowly Marlins, while the Mets are just 37-41 after splitting a four-game series over the weekend with the Cubs, including a 5-3 loss yesterday. Eflin lost his second straight start last Wednesday, giving up three runs over six frames to the Nats. Matz also lost last Wednesday, getting shelled for five runs over five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Braves. 

Key Trends:

- Eflin is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Mets.

- Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA in seven starts vs. the Phillies.

The verdict: The situation points to a “slug-fest” in the opener of this important series in my opinion, play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies.

Jon Gray (7-5, 4.18 ERA) gets the call for the Rockies and he’ll have a big opportunity to pad his win/loss record here vs. Giants’ volatile starter Drew Pomeranz (2-7, 7.09). Pomeranz has allowed four or more runs in five of his last ten starts, including seven in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. Colorado has struggled vs. Pomeranz in the past, but that was then and this is now. Colorado comes in focused on the task at hand after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado is 15-5 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

- San Fran is just 4-6 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: I like Gray to easily out duel the “gas can” Pomeranz. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 6* play on the D-Backs on the run-line.

Yes, Zach Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA) has struggled vs. his former team, but he comes in on top form and I expect him to give Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85) everything he can handle. The Diamondbacks are three games under .500, while the Dodgers are 26 games over the .500 mark. Clearly Arizona won’t be lacking for motivation here. And neither will Greinke. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is 9-4 (+5.2 units) this year after a win by two runs or less.

- The Diamondbacks are a money-making 19-15 (+5.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the run line!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs are the “hungrier” team here after dropping eight of their last 13. Atlanta comes in complacent after winning 13 of its last 16, including overcoming a four-run deficit to win 4-3 in ten-innings vs. the Nationals on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) and Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13) are a “wash,” I simply feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Braves, while the Cubs clearly can’t take anything for granted after their scuffling stretch. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is just 7-9 this year as a road underdog.

- Chicago is 23-12 as a home favorite this season. 

The verdict: All things considered a great price on the hungry home side. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

After a slow start to the 2019 campaign, the Tribe is rolling and I expect that momentum to carry over here in the opener of this three-game series. Cleveland is now seven games over .500 after posting a three-game sweep in two of its past three series. Cleveland won’t be taking anything for granted here either after KC posted a three-game sweep back on April 12th-14th. And that’s bade news for struggling Royals’ starter Brad Keller (3-9, 4.45 ERA), who is 0-4 over his past five starts, most recently getting shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the M’s on Wednesday. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.55), who gave up two runs in a no-decision to the Rangers on Wednesday. 

Key Trends:

- Kansas City is just 10-24 as a road dog this season.

- The Royals are only 18-36 vs. right-handed starters this year.

- Cleveland is 10-5 at home this year as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range.

The verdict: I expect the home side to continue its hot run this favorable match up. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox.

Lucas Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) has been a bright spot for the White Sox this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Red Sox, who just lost two of three to the lowly Jays, counter with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (8-4. 4.71). Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four lifetime match ups vs. Chicago, while Giolito is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox. 

Key Trends:

- Chicago is just 6-9 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Boston is 9-4 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this year.

The verdict: After their shoddy and disinterested performance vs. Toronto over the weekend, I expect the Red Sox to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Jays/Yanks.

Aaron Sanchez (3-9, 5.49 ERA) has struggled this year and since he’s returned from injury overall. He’s also struggled vs. the Yankees throughout his career. CC Sabathia (4-4, 4.14) though has had plenty of success vs. Toronto lifetime, going 18-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 35 match ups (Sabathia earned his 250th career win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. Tampa on Wednesday.) The Jays took two of three from Boston over the weekend and look primed for a predictable letdown at the plate here in my opinion (note that slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0 for 5 on Sunday and he’s hitting only .246 with 20 RBI’s over his first 48 games.) 

Key Trends:

- Toronto has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 vs. southpaws.

- NY has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 this year as a home favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: I think Toronto takes a predictable step back offensively after its big series in Boston. This number is a little high, play the under! 

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Mets/Phillies.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.