Auburn vs Baylor NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction August 29, 2025

Auburn vs Baylor August 29, 2025 @ Waco, TX

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: AUB -2.5 / BAY +2.5
Moneyline: AUB -130 / BAY +110
Total: 50.5

Preview

The Bears will be a home underdog versus Auburn in Week 1, despite the fact that the Tigers are coming off a 5-7 season. A few costly turnovers and bad bounces were likely the difference between 5-7 and a winning record and a bowl game for Auburn last year.

With Jackson Arnold transferring in from Oklahoma, and Eric Singleton coming over from Georgia Tech the Bears offense has real potential. Baylor will hope their offense picks up where it left off after Sawyer Robertson took over at quarterback in Week 3.

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Auburn

• 5-7 Overall in 2024
• 2-6 in the SEC in 2024
• 6-6 ATS in 2024

The offense was abysmal with Payton Thorne at quarterback last year, and this year they will roll the dice with Jackson Arnold who lost the starting job after struggling mightily at Oklahoma. This is a far better situation for Arnold, playing behind a solid offensive line with an elite receiving corps.

Auburn is expected to be far better this season, bookmakers setting their season win total at 7.5 heavily juiced to the over. They are also considered a potential playoff team, priced at +375 to make the College Football Playoffs.

Baylor

• 8-5 Overall in 2024
• 6-3 in the ACC in 2024
• 9-4 ATS in 2024

Baylor ranks 11th nationally in returning production, and starting quarterback Sawyer Robertson is back after throwing for 3,071 yards, 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Bears ended the season with six straight wins, but the majority of those games were against teams with a losing record.

After winning eight games last season, the bookmakers have set Baylor’s season win total at 7.5. They are +650 to win the BIG12, the 5th best odds in the conference. The schedule looks challenging, with an SEC team in Week 1, and a pair of playoff teams (SMU and Arizona State) in two of their next three games.

Dave Aranda is supposed to be a defensive guru, but last year Baylor ranked 11th in the BIG12 in total defense.

Relevant Trends

• The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall.
• The Bears are 6-1 SU in their last 7 overall.
• The Over is 5-1-1 in the Bears last 7 overall.
• The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 overall.
• The Over is 8-1-1 in the Bears last 10 overall.

PREDICTION: AUB 31 – BAY 23

The Bears haven’t beaten a Top 25 team in three years, and that is why they are a home underdog versus an SEC team in Week 1. Auburn is gambling on Jackson Arnold, but if he lives up to expectations they should be a legit contender in the SEC, and prove to be far too much for Baylor to handle.

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