Posted 7 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, Soccer  |  0 comments

Italy vs Albania June 16, 2024 @ Dortmund Germany

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Italy -1.5, +110, Albania +0.5, +200
Moneyline: Italy -275, Albania +800
Total: 2.5

Preview

Italy has appeared in 10 European Championships, advancing to the Final four times and winning twice in 1968 and 2020. The defending champions are not considered the favorites here in 2024, with England, France, Germany, Portugal and Spain all getting shorter odds to win the tournament. England is the favorite at -300, after losing to Italy on penalties in 2020.

Albania scored just one goal in three matches at the 2016 European Championship, and all three of their matches in the Group Stages went under the total. After only conceding four goals in eight qualifying matches, this team figures to be playing a very defensive brand of football. The under will likely be an attractive play in all of their matches.

Italy

• 2020 EURO Champions
• 4-2-2 EURO Qualifiers
• 3-1-1 Last 5 matches

Italy will come into the 2024 tournament as the defending European Champions, defeating England on penalties in the Final in 2020. The bookmakers have them priced as a longshot to repeat at +1400. Spain is the favorite to win Group B at -125, and Italy is projected to finish second at +200 to win the group. Gigio Donnarumma was the player of the tournament in 2020, but he’s fallen out of favor after struggling at PSG this season. He saved three penalties against England in the Final, and two versus Spain in the Semi Final. 

Albania

• 1-0-2 Last EURO in 2016
• 4-1-3 EURO Qualifiers
• 1-2-2 Last 5 matches

Albania is back at the European Championship after making their first appearance in 2016. They failed to advance from the Group Stages in the previous tournament, and they are projected to finish last in Group B priced at +2500 to win the group. With matches against Spain, Italy and Croatia, it’s going to be difficult to come away from any of those matches with points.

Relevant Trends

• Italy is undefeated in their last 8 European Championship matches.
• Albania has gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• Italy has gone under in 3 of their last 4 versus Albania.
• Albania conceded just four goals in 8 qualifying matches.
• Italy is 4-0 in the last five head to head meetings.

PREDICTION: ITALY 2, ALBANIA 0

Albania will know it is over-matched here, and would love to earn a draw in the opening match. They will likely come out with a conservative approach, and they should keep it close in the first half. Italy should break through in the final 45 minutes, and when the Albanians need to push for an equalizer that will open them up making them vulnerable to concede that second goal. We saw a preview of how effective this Albanian team can be defensively when they conceded just four goals in their eight qualifying matches. Italy to win on the moneyline and the total under appear to be the best bets.

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