Fresno State vs Michigan NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction August 31, 2024
Posted 11 months ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
Fresno State vs Michigan August 31, 2024 @ Ann Arbor, MI
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: Michigan -21, Fresno State +21
Moneyline: Michigan N/A. Fresno State N/A
Total: 48
Preview
The defending champion Michigan Wolverines come into the 2024 season projected to finish 4th in the BIG10. The bookmakers have set their regular season win total at 8.5, and they are priced as a +$115 underdog to make the College Football Playoffs.
Michigan will host Fresno State in the season opener, and they are a 21-point favorite. Last season Michigan won each of their first nine games by more than 21 points.
Fresno State got some bad news this off-season as Jeff Tedford had to step away as head coach due to health concerns..
Fresno State
- 9-4 Overall in 2023
- 4-4 in the MW in 2023
- 5-8 ATS in 2023
The Bulldogs are expected to compete for a conference championship in the Mountain West this year. Mikey Keene is back at quarterback after finishing 4th in the conference in passing in his first season after coming over from UCF. He will have two of his top targets from last season (Jalen Moss and Mac Dalena)
They also get back their leading rusher Malik Sherrod, who ran for 966 yards last year. He will be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters and is projected to be one of the top units in the conference.
The defense couldn’t stop the run last year, ranking 97th nationally in rushing defense. Some key pickups in the transfer portal could allow them to improve.
Michigan
- 15-0 Overall in 2023
- 9-0 in the BIG10 in 2023
- 9-5-1 ATS in 2023
The Wolverines may be defending champions, but they will look different this year. Head coach Jim Harbaugh went to the NFL, as did quarterback JJ McCarthy. The exodus doesn’t end there, the entire offensive line, star RB Blake Corum and the majority of the receiving corps will also be playing on Sundays.
For most teams this would spell disaster, but Michigan isn’t most teams. They will lean on their depth, and there is a chance that they have the personnel to plug all those holes. Perhaps the biggest question is who will play quarterback, and the options appear to be underwhelming (Alex Orgi, Jack Tuttle & Jayden Denegal).
The defense remains one of the best in the country, and even if the offense struggles the defense should keep them in games.
Relevant Trends
- The Bulldgos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in week 1.
- The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the BIG10.
- The total has gone Over in Michigan’s last 5 in August.
- The Wolverines are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games at home.
- The Wolverines are 8-0 SU in their last 8 versus the Mountain West.
PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 31 – FRESNO STATE 17
What looks like a cupcake in Week 1 for Michigan might turn out to be a tricky game when it’s all said and done. Michigan has to break in a new quarterback and a completely overhauled offense, but they also have to worry about a game against Texas at home the next week. Fresno State should have the edge at quarterback, and returning production on offense. We could see the Bulldogs hang around.
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