TCU vs Colorado NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction September 2, 2022
Posted 3 years ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
TCU vs Colorado September 2 @ Boulder CO
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: TCU -7.5, Colorado +7.5
Moneyline: TCU -305, Colorado +245
Total: 55
Preview
This will be the first time these two schools have faced each other, but Colorado is familiar with Sonny Dykes who takes over for Gary Patterson who was fired after 21 seasons at TCU. Dykes coached at the University of California from 2013 to 2016, and he went 1-1 versus Colorado during his tenure with the Bears.
TCU will come in as a significant favorite despite losing four of five road games last season. They played just one game against a PAC12 team, barely beating California by a score of 34-32. The Buffaloes will be a completely new team with 22 players lost in the transfer portal, and a complete overhaul of the coaching staff.
Even though Colorado was just 4-8 overall in 2021, they did go 4-2 at home. They also lost by a score of 10-7 to the #5 ranked Texas A&M Aggies in Denver in Week 2.
Colorado
- 4-8 overall in 2021
- 3-6 in the PAC12 in 2021
- 6-6 against the spread in 2021
The Buffaloes will have plenty of new players on offense, but that might be a good thing. This team ranked 126th nationally in passing averaging just 131 yards per game, and 262nd in scoring averaging just 18.8 points per game. What they lose in experience, they hope to gain in talent.
Head coach Karl Dorrell is confident in his players: “I do believe by the time we line up and play, we’ll have a good 22 — first and second team — on both sides of the ball that can move and do some good things for us,” said Dorrell. “There’s no question there’s a stronger commitment within the team. They’re working hard. They’re doing what we’ve asked of them. The team is creating a strong bond.” he elaborated.
Tackles Jalen Sami, Na’im Rodman and Janaz Jordan give the Buffaloes experience up front, and the defense could be their strength. Josh Chandler-Semedo was a big pickup in the transfer portal. He led the West Virginia Mountaineers in tackles last season.
TCU
- 5-7 overall in 2021
- 3-6 in the BIG12 in 2021
- 2-9-1 against the spread in 2021
Sonny Dykes takes over, and he comes with a solid resume (71-63 career). He inherits an experienced starting quarterback in Max Duggan (29 career starts). Dykes has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, from his work with the likes of Nick Foles and Jared Goff.
The offensive line is in great shape with center Steve Avila (All-Big 12), sophomore Andrew Coker and SMU transfer Alan Ali who has four years starting experience.
Joe Gillespie takes over as defensive coordinator, and his 3-3-5 defense replaces the 4-2-5 system employed by Patterson. This is the same defensive scheme used by Iowa State, and Tulsa where Gillespie spent the last three years. It’s also similar to the three-man front used by Dave Aranda at Baylor.
Relevant Trends
- The Buffaloes are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 versus the Big 12.
- The Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
- The under is 5-1 in the Buffaloes last six non-conference games.
- The over is 5-1 in the Horned Frogs last six games in September.
- The under is 5-2 in the Buffaloes last seven home games.
Prediction: TCU 31 – Colorado 28
While Sonny Dykes is an experienced coach with a winning record, he’s never won in his first season. He’s a combined 0-8 in non-conference games in his first seasons with Louisiana Tech, California and Southern Methodist.
TCU ranked 122nd nationally in rushing defense in 2021, allowing 222 rushing yards per game. Opposing running backs ran for over 100 yards 11 times in their 12 games last season.
While Dykes will get the offense firing on all cylinders, the defense might take a little longer to figure out. Colorado should be able to get their share of points at home, pushing the number over the total.
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