Posted 7 months ago |  Capper Reviews Report, Soccer  |  0 comments

Spain vs Croatia June 15, 2024 @ Berlin, Germany

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Spain -0.75, -115, Croatia +0.75, -109
Moneyline: Spain -133, Croatia +360
Total: 2.5

Preview

Spain is the top seed in Group B and is the 4th favorite in the betting odds. Spain has won 4 of their last 6 matches in this series including a 5-3 win the last time they faced off. After an opening match loss, Spain cruised through qualification winning 6 matches with a clean sheet in 3 of them. Spain defeated both Croatia and Italy on their way to a Nation’s League Championship and were victorious against this very Croatia team in the Championship game. 

Croatia is the 2 seed in Group B. Croatia started qualification with a 1-1 draw against Wales. At times Croatia showed dominance with a 5-0 win over Latvia even though they had 2 bad losses to start the second round.  Croatia is a team that can get plenty of opportunities however they’ll need to capitalize on those chances to make a deep run. Croatia has a rich history of success in international play. This team did win a bronze in Qatar.

Spain

• 3 Euro Championships
• 3-1-1 L5 EURO Qualifiers
• 7-1-0 L8 all comp

Spain has been in dominant form recently. Luis de la Fuente has this team playing on another level. Since 2021 Spain has had just one loss. Spain is led by Pedri and Yamal but they’re hardly Spain’s top contributors in this tournament. This team definitely lacks experience and are arguably the best team in the tournament. It won’t be an easy task but they have the championship pedigree. In the qualifying round Spain was the 3rd highest scoring team. In 8 matches they scored 25 goals. Spain is a strong defensive team and doesn’t concede goals.

Croatia

• 1-2-1 Last EURO in 2020
• 3-1-1 L5 EURO Qualifiers
• 3-1-1 Last 5 matches

Croatia had a tough road to get here. But they’re the second seed and have plenty of experience in these types of matches. At times Croatia can look dominant but they have trouble turning opportunities into goals. Croatia is a great defensive team and can give Spain trouble. They kept Spain to a 0-0 draw in their last match.

Relevant Trends

• Spain is 1-4 on the Asian Handicap L5 all comps.
• Croatia has posted 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
• Croatia is 3-2 to the under L5
• The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
• Spain leads the series 4-2-1 with a scoring differential of +6.

PREDICTION: Spain 2, Croatia 0

Spain is the favorite and for good reason. Spain has been dominant with Luis de la Fuente in front of the bench. Croatia’s defense should keep them in the game but they don’t have enough offensive power. Spain scored 3 goals in 5 of their 8 qualifying matches. They should be able to get enough goals to get the victory. These teams have only seen a draw twice in this series so I expect an outright victory. This is a great price for Spain. We lean to the under because it’s the first game for either team and I expect a feel out period. 

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