Posted 5 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  1 comments

SMU vs Nevada August 24, 2024 @ Reno Nevada

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: SMU -23.5, Nevada +23.5
Moneyline: SMU N/A, Nevada N/A
Total: 57.5

Preview

The Mustangs will kick off the 2024 season on the road at Reno. They will be a huge favorite against a Nevada team that is projected to win fewer than three games in 2024. SMU is a longshot to win the ACC, priced at 18-1.

The Mustangs opened last season with a 24-point win over Louisiana Tech in their season opener, which is roughly what the bookmakers have priced them here in this game.

The Wolfpack lost by 48 points in Week 1 at USC last year, and then they lost their home opener by a score of 33-6 to the Idaho Vandals. Nevada has only covered the spread in one of their last 11 home games.

SMU Mustangs

• 11-3 Overall in 2023
• 8-0 in the AAC in 2023
• 8-6 ATS in 2023

Expectations are high for the Mustangs after winning the American Athletic Conference championship last season. The step up in competition in a new conference this season, and their first ACC game will come against defending champions Florida State

Preston Stone finished among the conference leaders passing for 3.197 yards, 28 TDs and 6 INTs as the starter last season. Backup Kevin Jennings played well in the ACC Title game against Tulane, and he looks more than capable if anything happens to Stone.

The Mustangs are bringing back their top 3 pass catchers including TE RJ Maryland and wide receiver Jordan Hudson. They lost three starters on the offensive line but they brought in guys from the transfer portal that should be able to plug those spots.

The strength of this team is it’s defense, that ranked 1st in the AAC last year allowing opponents to average just 17 points per game. Returning talent and incoming transfers give the Mustangs a chance to even better on defense in 2024.

Nevada

• 2-10 Overall in 2023
• 2-6 in the MW in 2023
• 6-6 ATS in 2023

The Wolfpack were 4-20 the past two years under head coach Ken Wilson, and to nobody’s surprise Nevada gave him his walking papers last December. Former Montana State coach Jeff Choate will take over in Reno, and it’s fair to say that expectations aren’t that high.

Brendon Lewis is back at quarterback after throwing for 1,313 yards, 2 TDs and 6 INTs last season. Former Nebraska QB Chubba Purdy will compete for the starting job as well. AJ Bianco is also in the mix, but you know what they say: “if you have three quarterbacks, that means you don’t have any”.

The defense was one of the worst in the country in 2023, allowing over 33 points per game (115th nationally). The offense was even worse, ranking 129th scoring just over 17 points per game. The coaching staff in Reno has their work cut out for them.

Relevant Trends

• The Wolfpack are 2-18 SU in their last 20 games.
• The Wolfpack are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games at home.
• The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in week 1.
• The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Mountain West.
• The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in August.

PREDICTION: SMU 38 – NEVADA 13

There is no question that this is a mismatch, and you can expect an easy win for the Mustangs. The bookmakers know this, and they have priced the game accordingly. The total is sitting in the high 50s, and you have to wonder how many points Nevada is going to score on what looks like one of the better defenses in the country. The under might just be the best bet here in this Week Zero game.

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