Pound The Under In The NBA Playoffs
Mike Lundin is taking a look at totals trends in the NBA playoffs for the past couple of seasons.
The NBA postseason is a terrific time to make some serious cash. More people are watching the playoffs than the regular-season grind, and an influx of recreational gamblers who are more than happy to make a couple of bets to add to the excitement enters the stage. This often forces the bookies to move the lines, giving the sharps plenty of opportunities to take advantage of public misconceptions.
The public (and the bookmakers) have gotten the totals all wrong in recent seasons.
Going back to the playoffs in 2014 the total went over in 51 of the 89 playoff games (57%) with an average total of 196.4.
For the 2015 season the average total for the 81 postseason games was a much higher 201.3 points, but that year the under dominated with 54.3 percent of the contest failing to reach the closing total.
In 2016 we are seeing a similar trend. We have an even higher total average of 202.9 per game so far with 10 of 13 games, close to 77 percent, going under the total.
While it’s a small sample, I think we should be wise to keep betting the under until the bookmakers adjust and set the totals much much lower than they currently are.
Raw Statistics:
2014 Playoffs O/U: 51-37-1 avg total: 196.4
2015 Playoffs O/U: 36-44-1 avg total: 201.3
2016 Playoffs O/U: 3-10-0 avg total: 202.9
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