Iowa State vs Kansas State NCAAF Week Zero Preview and Prediction August 23, 2025

Iowa State vs Kansas State August 23, 2025 @ Dublin, Ireland

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: KSU -3.5, ISU +3.5
Moneyline: KSU -150, ISU +130
Total: 49.5

Preview

The Cyclones have won four of the last five meetings in this Farmageddon matchup, but the bookmakers have Kansas State favored here in Ireland. The Wildcats are laying 3.5 points, and we’ve seen four of the last five Aer Lingus Classic games decided by three points or less.

Six of the last 10 meetings between these two BIG12 rivals have been close games decided by one score. Iowa State leads the series all time 54–50–4, however since 1989 Kansas State has gone 26–9 against the Cyclones.

Iowa State

• 11-3 Overall in 2024
• 7-1 in the BIG12 in 2024
• 8-6 ATS in 2024

The Cyclones bring back 12 starters from a squad that made it to the BIG12 Championship Game last year, including starting quarterback Rocco Becht. They lost their top two wide receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to the NFL Draft.

Incoming transfers Xavier Townsend (UCF) and Chase Sowell (ECU) are expected to help fill the void. The top two running backs return in 2025 after combining for over 1,300 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns.

The defense is stacked with talent, with NFL caliber players in the secondary and depth at linebacker. The pass rush was a weakness last year, and incoming transfers on the defensive line will have to step up if they are to improve on just 17 sacks in 14 games last season.

Kansas State

• 9-4 Overall in 2024
• 5-4 in the BIG12 in 2024
• 4-9 ATS in 2024

The Wildcats lost three of their final four regular season games last year, all by one score. One of those losses came at the hands of Iowa State in the season finale by a score of 29-21. Avery Johnson is back at quarterback after a lackluster 2024 campaign.

The Wildcats opted to move off Will Howard in favor of Johsnon, and while Howard went on to win a National Championship at Ohio State, Johnson had an up and down season in his first year as a starter. He threw for 2,712 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 58.3 percent passing, leading the Wildcats to nine wins.

With a year of experience under his belt, and a pair of studs in the backfield in Dylan Edwards and Joe Johnson he is expected to take the next step in 2025. While there are question marks on the offensive line, the defense is loaded with returning starters at the line of scrimmage.

Relevant Trends

• The Cyclones are 4-1 SU in their last 5 vs Kansas State.
• The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs Kansas State.
• The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall.
• The Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
• The Cyclones are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall.

PREDICTION: ISU 24 – KSU 27

These two teams appear to be very evenly matched. While we expect Kansas State to be better than they were last year, it seems like its asking a lot for them to cover a 3.5 point spread at a neutral site against a team that has had their number in recent years.With four of the last five games in Ireland being decided by three points or less, don’t be surprised if that trend continues in 2025.