Alabama vs Florida State NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction August 30, 2025

Alabama vs Florida State August 30, 2025 @ Tallahassee FLA

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: BAMA -13 / FSU +13
Moneyline: BAMA -575 / FSU +405
Total: 50.5

Preview

The last time Alabama played Florida State it was 2017, and Jalen Hurts was the quarterback for the Crimson Tide. The game was in Atlanta, and it wasn’t particularly close. The Seminoles were shutout in the second half in a 24-7 loss.

Alabama comes into the season priced at 12-1 to win the National Championship, only five teams have shorter odds. Florida State is priced at 12-1 to make the playoffs, and they are an even bigger longshot to win the ACC, priced at 28-1.

Alabama

• 9-4 Overall in 2024
• 5-3 in the SEC in 2024
• 7-6 ATS in 2024

Kalen Deboer enters his second season at Alabama, and the jury is still out after an up and down 2024 that resulted in some impressive wins and some bad losses. Beating Georgia and LSU were the high points, but losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma were inexplicable.

The offense might get a boost with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb teaming up with Deboer once again after spending last season in the NFL. The duo won conference championships with Washington and Fresno State, and have had plenty of success developing quarterbacks. The Tide appear to be ready to hand the keys to Ty Simpson, who was the top quarterback recruit in the country back in 2022.

Florida State

• 2-10 Overall in 2024
• 1-7 in the ACC in 2024
• 2-8-2 ATS in 2024

The Seminoles came into 2024 with high expectations after a 13-0 season the previous year. They replaced Jordan Travis with DJ Uiagalelei, and the move resulted in a disaster. Mike Norvell will be on the hot seat in 2025, and his success will be riding on another controversial quarterback transfer from Boston College.

Thomas Castellanos ranked 34th in the ACC in completion percentage last season, and left the team after being benched by Bill O’Brien. He said in an interview this off-season that he quote: “tore up the ACC by his own damn self”.

Relevant Trends

• The Seminoles are 2-8 SU in their last 10 overall.
• The Crimson Tide were 3-1 SU versus Top 25 teams in 2024.
• The Crimson Tide are 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games.
• The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall.
• The Under is 7-3 in the Seminoles last 10 overall.

PREDICTION: BAMA 37 – FSU 13

The Seminoles don’t match up well against one of the top programs in the SEC. Last year the Crimson Tide won their four non conference games by an average margin of more than 40 points. The Seminoles last game was a 20-point loss to an SEC team, losing 31-11 to Florida.