Western Michigan vs Wisconsin NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction August 30, 2024

Posted 2 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  0 comments

Western Michigan vs Wisconsin August 30, 2024 @ Madison, WI

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Wisconsin -24, Temple +24
Moneyline: Wisconsin N/A. Western Michigan N/A
Total: 56.5

Preview

The Badgers defeated Western Michigan by a score of 24-16 in the Cotton Bowl back in 2017 the last time these teams met. Wisconsin will be a significant favorite in this Week 1 matchup on a Friday night.

Western Michigan is projected to improve on last season’s four wins, with their regular season win total set at 6.5. They are priced at +650 to win the MAC.

Wisconsin is also projected to win 6.5 games, but they are an 80-1 longshot to win the BIG10.

Western Michigan

• 4-8 Overall in 2023
• 3-5 in the MAC in 2023
• 7-5 ATS in 2023

The Broncos will have experience at quarterback with fifth year senior Hayden Wolff returning, and he will be joined by RB Jalen Buckley, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in his freshman season in 2023.

They also bring back three of their of their top four receivers and they return three offensive linemen, two of which were All Conference last year.

The defense gets seven starters back, but after finishing with one of the worst defenses in the MAC last year this unit might continue to struggle.

Wisconsin

• 7-6 Overall in 2023
• 5-4 in the BIG10 in 2023
• 6-6-1 ATS in 2023

The Badgers offense struggled in the first season under Luke Fickell, but the arrival of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke from Miami via the transfer portal gives reason for optimism. The offensive line returns three starters, and should be better overall.

Star running back Braelon Allen was drafted in the 4th round of the NFL draft by the New York Jets, which opens the door for senior Chez Mellusi. Over two seasons with Clemson and three years at Wisconsin he has been very productive.

Wisconsin’s defense ranked 19th nationally in 2023, allowing just 19 points per game. A pair of incoming transfers will bolster the linebacking corps. Leon Lowery (Syracuse) and FCS All-American John Pius (William & Mary) will be tasked with improving the pass rush.

Relevant Trends

• The Broncos are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisconsin’s last 6 games at home.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Michigan’s last 5 games played in week 1.
• The Badgers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played in August.
• The Badgers are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games versus the MAC.

PREDICTION: WISCONSIN 38 – WESTERN MICHIGAN 18

The Badgers may well be an improved team in the second season under Luke Fickell, but asking them to win by four scores in Week 1 might be a little bit of a stretch. Western Michigan is not a great team, but they have enough returning talent to keep this within the number. We project a Badgers win, and a Broncos cover.

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