Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky NCAAF Week Zero Preview and Prediction August 23, 2025

Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky August 23, 2025 @ Bowling Green KY

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: WKU -8.5 / SHU +8.5
Moneyline: N/A
Total: 61.5

Preview

The Sam Houston Bearkats won 10 games in 2024, more than any other Conference USA team. Such success can be a curse for a Group of Five program, because the result is usually a more attractive offer for the coaching staff. That is exactly what happened as K.C. Keeler landed a job at Temple.

With a new coach and not much in the way of returning production, another 10 win season is unlikely in 2025. Western Kentucky remains one of the top programs in the conference, and they have the second best odds to win the conference this season.

Sam Houston

• 10-3 Overall in 2024
• 6-2 in the CUSA in 2024
• 7-6 ATS in 2024

It’s been almost a decade since Phil Luongo’s last stint at Sam Houston. He was the offensive coordinator from 2014-2016. Longo takes over as head coach after working as offensive coordinator at Ole Miss (2017-2018), North Carolina (2019-2022), and Wisconsin (2023-2024).

He will inherit an offense that ranked 7th in the conference in passing averaging just 168 passing yards per game. Hunter Watson returns at quarterback, after throwing for 1,811 yards, 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He also ran for 647 yards and 9 touchdowns.

The Bearkats are projected to finish fifth in Conference USA in 2025.

Western Kentucky

• 8-6 Overall in 2024
• 6-2 in the CUSA in 2024
• 7-7 ATS in 2024

The Hilltoppers won eight games or more in five of six seasons under head coach Tyson Helton. He was the conference Coach of the Year in 2021, and the Hilltoppers were the conference champions that season.

Bailey Zappe threw for almost 6,000 yards and a record 62 touchdowns during that championship run. Western Kentucky will hope that the next great Hilltoppers quarterback is Maverick McIvor who transfered from Albien Christian.

Last year McIvor threw for over 500 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-51 OT loss to Texas Tech.

Relevant Trends

• The Under is 7-3 in the Bearkats last 10 overall.
• The Bearkats are 8-2 SU in their last 10 overall.
• The Hilltoppers are 10-2 SU in their last 12 home games.
• The Hilltoppers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 home games.
• The Hilltoppers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 overall.

PREDICTION: SHU 27 – WKU 37

These two teams appear to be trending in opposite directions. The Bearkats have a new head coach and they will have a lot of turnover on defense. That doesn’t bode well when they open the season on the road against a program that has consistently been prolific on defense.