Posted 11 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  2 comments

Oregon vs Liberty January 1, 2024 @ Glendale AZ

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Oregon -16, Liberty +16
Moneyline: Oregon -700, Liberty +500
Total: 65.5

Preview

Nobody expected to see Oregon miss out on the College Football Playoffs. They were a heavy favorite in the PAC12 Championship Game, but Dan Lanning was on the wrong side of another close loss to Kalen Deboer and the Washington Huskies.

Liberty cruised to a perfect 13-0 record and a Conference USA Championship, but they didn’t face anyone that would compare to Oregon.

The 12 top ranked teams in the country qualify to play in New Years Six Bowls. This includes the best teams from the Power 5 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC).

If there aren’t enough teams from the Power 5 with the qualifications for these games, then the highest-ranked teams from the Group of Five take their place. The Group of Five include: (AAC, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt). The same rules apply to the Fiesta Bowl.

Oregon

• 11-2 Overall in 2023
• 8-1 in the PAC12 in 2023
• 9-3-1 ATS in 2023

The Ducks were considered by some to be the best team in the country heading into the PAC 12 Championship Game against Washington. Bo Nix was in the driver’s seat in the Heisman race, but Oregon couldn’t stop the Huskies, giving up 481 total yards in a 34-31 loss in Las Vegas.

The Ducks could suffer a let down after missing out on what looked like a clear path to the playoffs. The good news for Oregon is that Bo Nix will be back at quarterback for his final game in college football.

Oregon will have plenty of players on both side of the ball, but the depth of talent compared to an opponent from the Conference USA is still going to favor the Ducks,

Liberty

• 13-0 Overall in 2023
• 8-0 in the C-USA in 2023
• 9-4 ATS in 2023

The Flames have beaten every team that was put in front of them, but this is such a major step up in class. Liberty ranked 119th nationally in strength of schedule, while Oregon ranked 9th.

Liberty ranked 1st nationally rushing for 303 yards per game, and Top 5 in scoring averaging 41 points per game. It’s important to keep in mind that those numbers were accumulated against one of the softest schedules in the country.

Motivation won’t be an issue for Liberty, their players should all buy in and treat this like their Super Bowl.

Relevant Trends

• The Flames are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the underdog.
• The total has gone over in 6 of Liberty’s last 7 games.
• The Ducks are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games when playing as the favourite.
• The total has gone under in 12 of Oregon’s last 18 games.
• The Flames are 0-6 SU in their last six versus a Power Five Conference team.

PREDICTION: OREGON 42 – LIBERTY 24

This game should be a high scoring battle, with two teams that possess high powered offenses and should be plenty motivated. We expect Oregon to pull away with superior quarterback play and more size and speed.

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