Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction August 30, 2024
Posted 3 months ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 1 comments
Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State August 30, 2024 @ East Lansing, MI
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: Michigan State -11, Florida Atlantic +11
Moneyline: Michigan State -500, Florida Atlantic +360
Total: 48
Preview
Despite all the positivity surrounding the hire of new head coach Jonathan Smith, the bookmakers aren’t exactly optimistic that the Spartans are going to see much improvement in the win column. Most books have their regular season win total set at 5.0, but at Fan Duel it’s 4.5 (juiced -154 to the over).
The bookmakers are slightly more optimistic about Florida Atlantic, setting their win total at 6.5 across the board. The Owls face one of the softest schedules in the country this season, while Michigan State has to navigate an even tougher field in the new look BIG10.
The historical trends all favor a comfortable win for Michigan State, which is clearly baked into the line here.
Florida Atlantic
- 4-8 Overall in 2023
- 3-5 in the AAC in 2023
- 7-4-1 ATS in 2023
The Owls suffered some growing pains in the first year under head coach Tom Herman. The offense went from 29.8 points per game in 2022 to just 23.8 points per game in 2023. The lost all their quarterbacks in the transfer portal, but picked up Cameron Fancher from Marshall.
Florida Atlantic ranked dead last in the AAC in time of possession last year, and with all the new faces on offense this isn’t likely something that is going to be fixed overnight.
While the offense struggled, the defense trended in the right direction. The Owls bring back leading tackler Jackson Ambush, and Daedae Hill and Jayden Williams are key returners in the secondary.
Michigan State
- 4-8 Overall in 2023
- 2-7 in the BIG10 in 2023
- 5-6-1 ATS in 2023
The Spartans lured head coach Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State, and this looks like a great hire for Michigan State. A handful of players will be coming with coach Smith from the Beavers, including dual-threat QB Aidan Chiles.
The offensive line needs to improve, but the addition of center Tanner Miller (another Oregon State transfer) will help plug some holes. Chiles saw limited playing time behind DJ Uiagalelei, but he completed 69 percent of his passes with four TDs and no picks.
The defense has been ranked near the bottom of the BIG10 in each of the last three seasons, but the addition of defensive coordinator Joe Rossi should change that. Rossi comes over from Minnesota, and the Gophers had one of the top defenses in the conference during his tenure.
Relevant Trends
- The Owls are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
- The Owls are 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against the BIG10.
- The Spartans are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played in week 1.
- The Spartans are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played in August.
- The Over is 7-3 in the Spartans last 10 home games.
PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 27 – FLORIDA ATLANTIC 16
The Spartans have won 10 straight in Week 1, and we expect that trend to continue here as they take on another cup cake to start the season. The story of Tom Herman could be framed as “Oh how the mighty have fallen”. After going 22-4 in two seasons with the Houston Cougars, he landed one of the most prestigious jobs in the country with Texas with the Longhorns. Now he’s slumming it as a double digit underdog against the unranked Spartans in Week 1.
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One comment on “Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction August 30, 2024”
So Sparty gonna get a big win in Week 1, and then reality is gonna set in! This team is going nowhere in the BIG1O for at least two more years!