Posted 4 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  1 comments

North Carolina vs Minnesota August 29, 2024 @ Minneapolis, MN

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Minnesota -1.5, North Carolina +1.5
Moneyline: Minnesota N/A. North Carolina N/A
Total: 50.5

Preview

The Tar Heels saw their quarterback drafted 3rd overall in the first round of the NFL Draft, and star wide receiver Tez Walker was drafted in the fourth round. Vegas has them priced as a 28-1 longshot to win the ACC, and their projected season wins total is set at 7.5

Minnesota is coming off a disappointing season, finishing last in the BIG10 West with a 3-6 conference record. The offense struggled to move the ball, putting even more pressure on the defense. The bookmakers aren’t projecting any improvement, setting their win total at just 5.5 (juiced to the under).

North Carolina

• 8-5 Overall in 2023
• 4-4 in the AAC in 2023
• 6-7 ATS in 2023

The quarterback situation at Chapel Hill is up in the air, and it’s unclear who will be the heir apparent to Drake Maye. Former Texas A&M and LSU signal caller Max Johnson will battle with Conner Harrell who was the backup to Maye last year, and Jacolby Criswell who is back at North Carolina after spending last season with the Arkansas Razorbacks.

This is a program that has sent three quarterbacks to the NFL in seven years. Drake May was drafted 3rd overall in 2024, and Mitch Trubisky was drafted second overall in 2017. Sam Howell was a 5th round pick in 2022, but he has started 18 games over the past two seasons in Washington.

Don’t be surprised if the offense finds a way to be good again, but the bigger question is whether or not new defensive coordinator Geoff Collins can fix a defense that ranked 12th in the ACC last year.

Minnesota

• 6-7 Overall in 2023
• 3-6 in the BIG10 in 2023
• 4-9 ATS in 2023

Plagued by poor quarterback play, the Gophers slipped from 9 wins in 2022 to a 6-7 season in 2023. They bring in senior transfer Max Brosmer, who was the FCS leading passer with New Hampshire last year. As always PJ Fleck will have a stable of capable running backs, and an offensive line that returns four starters.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Rossi left for Michigan State, and he will be replaced by former Rutgers linebacker coach Corey Hetherman. This program went from a Top 10 defense nationally in 2022 to the 10th best defense in the BIG10 last year.

While this team has a chance to improve on last year’s record, the 12th toughest schedule in the country isn’t going to be easy to navigate.

Relevant Trends

• The Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in August.
• The Under is 7-2 in the Gophers last 9 home games.
• The Gophers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played in week 1.
• The Gophers are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played in August.

PREDICTION: NORTH CAROLINA 24 – MINNESOTA 26

The Tar Heels defeated the Golden Gophers by a score of 31-13 at Chapel Hill last September, and that sets up a revenge spot here for Minnesota at home in Week 1. Home field should give the Gophers an edge, and they have won 10 straight games in the month of August. North Carolina has failed to cover in six of their last seven games in the month of August, and it might just take a few weeks for them to get the offense up to speed with a new quarterback.

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