Wyoming vs Illinois NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction August 27, 2022
Posted 3 years ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
Wyoming vs Illinois August 27, 2022 @ Champaign IL
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: Wyoming +10, Illinois -10
Moneyline: Wyoming +300, Illinois -390
Total: 46.5
Preview
The Cowboys have been competitive in the Mountain West in recent seasons. They won eight games in 2019, beating Georgia State in the Arizona Bowl. After only playing six games in 2020 during the pandemic, they bounced back with a solid 2021 season, with seven wins and a win over Kent State in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
Illinois won just five games in 2021, but they were a giant killer. They upset Penn State in a 20-18 OT win at Happy Valley on October 23, and they won 14-6 at #20 ranked Minnesota two weeks later. They also had wins over Nebraska and Northwestern, and they lost by just four points at Purdue.
This Week 1 matchup features two teams that are focused on running the football, and that is reflected in the opening total. The number of 46.5 is the lowest total for all of the Week Zero and Week 1 games.
Wyoming
- 7-6 overall in 2021
- 2-6 in the Mountain West in 2021
- 5-7-1 against the spread in 2021
Craig Bohl has done a nice job of making the Cowboys competitive, but in order to get over the hump and compete for a Mountain West title he’s going to have to do so without several key players lost in the transfer portal.
Xazavian Valladay ran for over 1,000 yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry last year, but he’s transferred to Arizona State. They will also lose their leading receiver Isaiah Neyor who went to Texas. He caught 44 passes for 878 yards and a dozen touchdowns in Laramie last year. Transfers on both sides of the line will also leave plenty of holes that need to be filled.
The defense took the biggest hit, particularly with corners CJ Coldon and Azizi Hearn who went to Oklahoma and UCLA. Linebacker Chad Muma was the Cowboys leading tackler (142) in 2021, and he’s taken his talents to the NFL, drafted in the 3rd round by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Illinois
- 5-7 overall in 2021
- 4-5 in the BIG10 in 2021
- 7-4-1 against the spread in 2021
The Illini come into 2022 off 10 straight losing seasons, but Brett Bielema’s first year gives reason for optimism. “I feel much more comfortable walking in the building every day, knowing everybody knows their job,” Bielema says. “We’ve got a big saying here: We’ve got four things coming in the door, four things going out the door. The first thing they see in that sign is ‘Do your job.'”
Syracuse transfer Tommy Devito gives new offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. an experienced signal caller to work with. Devito didn’t get on the field much the last two years at Syracuse, after throwing for 2,360 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2019.
“You earn the right to get the ball. I know we’ve got some talent there. We’ve got to run the football. That’s going to be the starting point of who we are offensively,” Lunney says.
Chase Brown is back at running back after rushing for over 1,000 yards and averaging 5.9 yards per carry in 2021. Starters Alex Palczewski and Julian Pearl are back on the offensive line.
Relevant Trends
- The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five versus the Big Ten.
- The over is 5-1 in the Cowboys last six games overall.
- The Fighting Illini are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
- The under is 14-5 in the Fighting Illini last 19 non-conference games.
- The under is 8-2 in the Fighting Illini last 10 games overall.
Prediction: Illinois 35 – Wyoming 17
As competitive as Illinois was in the BIG10 last year, it was perhaps a bit disappointing to see them lose to UTSA and get blown out at Virginia. That came after they won their season opener as a home underdog versus Nebraska. Beilema had his team well prepared for that game, and he should have a solid game plan here against Wyoming.
The Cowboys weren’t great defensively last year, and given all the personnel losses we shouldn’t expect them to have much success slowing down a competitive BIG10 team on the road in their season opener. While the bookmakers have listed a low total for this game, we expect to see plenty of scoring.
If you want to see who our experts are picking for this, and any other Week 1 matchup, be sure to have a look at our NCAAF premium picks page.
