Vanderbilt vs Hawaii NCAAF Week Zero Preview and Prediction August 27, 2022

Posted 2 years ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  8 comments

Vanderbilt vs Hawaii August 27, 2022 @ Honolulu HI

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Vanderbilt -6.5. Hawaii +6.5
Moneyline: Vanderbilt -250, Hawaii +210
Total: 55

Preview

This will be the first of a home and home series between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, who have never faced each other. When Vanderbilt plays at Hawaii on August 27, 2022 it will be the Commodores first football game out of the continental United States. The two teams will play again in Nashville on September 30, 2023.

This will be the first time the Rainbow Warriors have played an SEC team since opening the 2008 season with a 59-10 loss to the Florida Gators. Hawaii has an all time record of 1-7 versus SEC teams, and the average margin of defeat in those games is more than 20 points.

Vanderbilt has only faced teams from the Mountain West three times previously, going 2-1 in those games. The Commodores won at Colorado State by a a score of 24-21 last September. They lost to UNLV 34-10 in 2019, and defeated the Nevada Wolfpack 41-10 in 2018.

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Vanderbilt

  • 2-10 overall in 2021
  • 0-8 in the SEC in 2021
  • 6-6 against the spread in 2021

This will be the second season for Clark Lea in his second stint at Vanderbilt. It’s fair to say that last year was a disaster, opening the season with a loss to East Tennessee State (FCS). and failing to win a game in the SEC.

If the Commodores are to improve in 2022 it will be in spite of their offensive line. The unit ranked dead last in the SEC a year ago, and has since lost left tackle Tyler Steen who transferred to Alabama.

Junior Ken Seals is back at quarterback, but he threw for just 1,181 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions on 57 percent passing last year. He will be challenged by fellow junior Mike Wright, who threw for 1,042 yards with eight touchdowns and six interceptions last year, but completed just 53 percent of his passes.

If there is a strength on this team it would be the defense that could have as many as 10 players with starting experience. Senior linebacker Anfernee Orji is expected to be a potential NFL draft pick in 2023.

Hawaii

  • 6-7 overall in 2021
  • 3-5 in the Mountain West in 2021
  • 5-7-1 against the spread in 2021

The Rainbow Warriors bring in former star quarterback Timmy Chang as head coach, despite the fact that he has never been a head coach at any level. He’s worked as an offensive coordinator at Jackson State, and a positions coach at Nevada. Expectations are low for a team that had 21 players transfer to other schools.

Hawaii has to replace starting quarterback Cheven Cordeiro as well as five of their six leading receivers from 2021. Making matters worse, they lost all four of their ball carriers from last season.

Personnel losses on defense could hit the team even harder than on offense. That said, they did rank dead last in the Mountain West allowing 446 yards per game last year, and had one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Perhaps change could be a good thing?

Relevant Trends

  • The Commodores are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • The Rainbow Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Commodores last six road games.
  • The over is 19-9 in the Rainbow Warriors last 28 non-conference games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Rainbow Warriors last five games in August.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 37 – Hawaii 17

The Hawaii program appears to be a dumpster fire, and the hiring of Timmy Chang was likely due to the fact that nobody else wanted the job. A mass exodus of players through the transfer portal, a condemned stadium and a complete overhaul of players and coaches doesn’t bode well for Week 1, and the rest of the season.

Before you dive into the Week 1 betting action, you might want to consult Ricky Tran. His impressive resume includes consecutive Top 5 finishes with college football the last two seasons. He’s also ranked near the top of the leaderboards for ROI as well as win percentage for all sports in 2022.

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8 comments on Vanderbilt vs Hawaii NCAAF Week Zero Preview and Prediction August 27, 2022


Freddy Failure

I can’t believe the writer of this preview and prediction is calling for Vanderbilt to score 37 points in Week Zero on the road in Hawaii. You know how many times Vanderbilt scored 30+ points last year? Not once did they score more than 30 points in 12 games, and even lost 23-3 to East Tennessee State in Week 1. They beat the UCONN Huskies who many be the worst team in the entire country, and still only scored 30 points on them. You calling for them to score 37 on Hawaii? That’s some serious disrespect for this Hawaii team bro.


Ernest Dixon

The Vanderbilt Commodores have to travel across the country for a Week Zero game at Hawaii, and still you think they should be a favorite? I will stop short of making a prediction, but I certainly think Vanderbilt will have their hands full. It’s a long way from Tennessee to Hawaii. At the end of the day, as excited as I am for the return of college football in 2022, I think there are better games to focus on in the first week of the season.


Tua Malepeai

This preview/prediction could use an update, naming the starting quarterback for Hawaii in Week Zero vs Vanderbilt. I am trying to figure out who starts for the Warriors, but can’t find anything. The previous post seems to be certain that Cammon Cooper has won the job, but I am hearing other things. “As far as quarterback and even the other positions, we recruited all the way until July and so getting these guys in and letting them be able to compete as far as quarterback and some of these other positions—we are not set in stone until we watch these guys compete for about two weeks and we’ll flip into our Vanderbilt game plan,” Chang said to KHON2. “But they got to go out there and compete. There’s six on the roster and all of them can throw. They all do things a little bit different but at the end of the day it’s the guy that distributes the ball and makes the best decisions. That’s the guy that’s going to get the nod.”


Bruce Bailey

I saw this posted on the SBR Forum, another pro handicapper picking Hawaii Week 1 versus Vanderbilt. His preview looks almost opposite of this prediction. Check it out:

This is a 10* OPENING NIGHT SPECIAL on Hawaii.

Timmy Chang is once again the head-coach at Honolulu, and while he doesn’t have a lot to work with, I still think that he’ll find a way to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the comfortable cover.

Twenty years ago Chang’s offense was putting up more than 4,000 yards a year, but he only has six returning starters this season.

But Vanderbilt has been terrible the last feyears, going just 5-28 the past three seasons and dropping 21 straight SEC contests since 2019.

Last year Vandy opened the season with a 20 point loss to FCS East Tennessee State. The Commodores should be slightly better this time around, as they have a bit more experience, but the defense will once again be the weak point.

Last year Vanderbilt allowed 31 or more points in seven of eight SEC games.

Commodores coach Clark Lea has just announced that Mike Wright will be the starting QB thi season. Both Wright and Ken Seals struggled last year, but Wright managed to top 200 yards passing in the final two games, solidifying his spot this season.

The weakness this year for Hawaii is for sure on the defensive side. In fact, the secondary has none of its defensive backs from last season. But fortunately for the Warriors they catch a break here, because Vanderbilt doesn’t have much back in the way of receivers this year. They averaged 35 carries per game last year, but only managed 3.5 yards per carry.

Chang sees Cammon Cooper take the ball under center, as he moves over from Washington State. The one thing Cooper does have going for him, is that four of the six returning starters do come on the offensive end.

The Vanderbilt defense and secondary could be in even bigger trouble than Hawaii’s as well.

Granted, the Commodores have been a decent bet on the road, covering in eight of their last ten away from friendly confines. But that’s almost entirely due to the fact that they face such ridiculous spreads in the SEC while on the road.

Note that Vandy is just 1-3 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons and it’s lost outright on two of those occasions.

Interestingly as well, Hawaii has done extremely well in this spot, covering in six of its last seven games played in the month of August.

Whatever experience that Vanderbilt brings to the table in this one, I’m not buying it. The Commodores have to travel across three time zone and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I will recommend grabbing as many points as you can with Hawaii to earn a comfortable cover here at home to open up the season.

Good luck, NP


Anthony Garcia

I think this preview and prediction focused too much on Hawaii, while ignoring all the negative things happening with Vanderbilt. At the end of the day the Commodores come in as a road favorite asked to cover a touchdown in a Week 1 matchup that arguably looks far more challenging than the game they lost in Week 1 of 2021. Why will 2022 be any different? There aren’t many answers, so i would lean on taking the points with Hawaii.


Jerry Dirksen

Pretty tough to do a preview and prediction on a Hawaii team with so much turnover in 2022. The Warriors are going to be completely different after losing all those players. My prediction is that they won’t be as bad as some might think, but it will take them a few weeks to get their shit together. As far as Vanderbilt goes, maybe they get worked over in the SEC but they should have their way with a Mountain West team in disarray. I think Vandy wins this Week 1 matchup by 10+ points.


Vandy Vance

Some dude named Mark sounds like he just loves Hawaii, but WTF does he base his comments on. Not a single piece of useful info on why he thinks UH is going to be good. Come on Mark, you can do better?


Mark

Bad Hawaii reporting! Commodores will be in for their lives! This UH team will surprise many, starting with Vanderbilt!!!

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