Penn State vs West Virginia NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction August 31, 2024

Posted 3 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  0 comments

Penn State vs West Virginia August 31, 2024 @ Morgantown, WV

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Penn State -10.5. West Virginia +10.5
Moneyline: Penn State -400, West Virginia +310
Total: 51.5

Preview

The Nittany Lions opened the 2023 season at home versus West Virginia, and they would win by a score of 38-15. The final score may have been a little misleading in a game that was perhaps closer than it looked. Penn State was up 14-7 at halftime, and they only covered the 21 point spread when they ran in a TD in the final five seconds of the fourth quarter.

Penn State is a betting favorite to make the College Football Playoff, priced at -140. West Virginia is a longshot at 12-1 to make the playoffs. The Mountaineers are oddly an even bigger longshot to win the BIG12, priced at 18-1.

Penn State

• 10-3 Overall in 2023
• 7-2 in the BIG10 in 2023
• 9-4 ATS in 2023

The Nittany Lions won 10 games, but lost to Michigan and Ohio State. That has been the story for the last decade for Penn State, but this year they don’t face Michigan in the regular season, and 10 wins might be enough to get them into the playoffs.

After the offense struggled in big games last season, James Franklin made a change at offensive coordinator. Andy Kotelnick comes over from Kansas and he will have plenty to work with. Drew Allar is back at QB and Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are back at RB.

Josh Fleming comes over from Ohio State to bolster the receiving corps, but the offensive line will lose three starters.

West Virginia

• 9-4 Overall in 2023
• 6-3 in the BIG12 in 2023
• 8-5 ATS in 2023

The Mountaineers were a competitive team in the BIG12 last year, and they bring back senior quarterback Garrett Green who will be playing behind an offensive line that is one of the most experience in the country.

West Virginia was the top rushing offense in the BIG12 last year, with three players running for more than 700 yards. One of those was dual threat QB Garrett Green who is now in his senior year.

The defense was solid last season, and with several incoming transfers in the secondary they will have more depth in 2024.

Relevant Trends

• The Nittany Lions are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
• The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• The Under is 4-1 in West Virginia’s last 5 games played in August.
• The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
• The Mountaineers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games played in week 1.

PREDICTION: PENN STATE 31 – WEST VIRGINIA 24

The Nittany Lions get thrown into the fire right off the bat, and a loss here in Week 1 could put their playoff chances in serious doubt. While they come in as a double digit favorite, this won’t be an easy game by any means. The Mountaineers are an experienced team that won five of their six home games in 2023. Ultimately we should see Penn State pull away late, getting the win but failing to cover the spread.

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