Penn State vs Purdue NCAAF Week 1 Preview and Prediction September 1, 2022
Posted 3 years ago | Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF | 0 comments
Penn State vs Purdue September 1, 2022 @ West Lafayette IN
Opening Betting Odds
Spread: Penn State -3, Purdue +3
Moneyline: Penn State -170, Purdue +140
Total: 54
Preview
The Nittany Lions will face a stiff challenge in their season opener on the road at Purdue. They are just a three -point favorite despite winning eight straight head to head meetings versus the Boilermakers since 2006. Penn State won the most recent meeting by a score of 35-7 in 2019.
Purdue won nine games last year, two more than Penn State. They were also better in the BIG10 with two more conference wins. They finished last season with a Top 5 ranked passing attack, averaging 355 yards per game. Their quarterback returns for his senior season, so they are hoping to pick up right where they left off.
Penn State
- 7-6 overall in 2021
- 4-5 in the BIG10 in 2021
- 7-6 against the spread in 2021
James Franklin will be looking to turn things around after losing six of the final eight games last season, and winning just 11-of-22 games the last two years. “We’ve got some things to work on,” coach James Franklin said following the loss to Arkansas in the Outback Bowl. “We’ll get it fixed.”
The offense should be in good shape with Sean Clifford back at quarterback. The super senior has started 33 games for the Nittany Lions, totaling more than 8,000 yards of total offense. He didn’t get a lot of help from his running backs last year, with not a single 100-yard rushing performance in any game.
Penn State ranked in the Top 10 nationally with a defense that allowed just over 16 points per game in 2021. They have a strong secondary led by safety Ji’Ayir Brown who had an FBS best six interceptions last year.
Purdue
- 9-4 overall in 2021
- 6-3 in the BIG10 in 2021
- 8-5 against the spread in 2021
The Boilermakers lost BIG10 receiver of the year David Bell, but they get back senior quarterback Adrian O’Connell. If there was any concern about a drop off in production with the loss of Bell, perhaps those questions were answered in the Boilermakers bowl game.
David Bell did not play in the Music City Bowl, and the Boilermakers would defeat Tennessee by a score of 48-45. O’Connell threw for 534 yards and five TDs in the victory.
An experienced offensive line and leading rusher from last season King Doerue returning in 2022 might be enough to help O’Connell pick up where he left off last season.
The loss of defensive lineman George Karlaftis, and fellow pass rusher DaMarcus Mitchell leaves some holes in the defense.
Relevant Trends
- The Nittany Lions are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
- The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
- The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
- The under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings.
- The under is 5-1 in the Nittany Lions last six conference games.
Prediction: Purdue 28 – Penn State 27
Penn State may have too many holes on the offensive line that need to be filled, and a lack of a running game isn’t doing Kyle Clifford any favors. Clifford looked awful in the Outback Bowl, throwing for just 195 yards and a pair of interceptions on 14-of-32 passing.
Last year Purdue upset #3 ranked Michigan State at home, and O’Connell threw for 536 yards and three TDs on 40-of-54 passing. The home team with a superior quarterback getting points seems like decent value here in Week 1.
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