Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction August 31, 2024

Posted 3 months ago |  Betting Previews and Predictions, NCAAF  |  1 comments

Florida vs Miami August 31, 2024 @ Gainesville, FL

Opening Betting Odds

Spread: Miami -2, Florida +2
Moneyline: Miami -130, Florida +110
Total: 55.5

Preview

This will be one of most highly anticipated matchups in Week 1, and with both these coaches on the hot seat heading into the season, it’s a must win for both teams.

Despite grabbing the top QB and the top RB out of the transfer portal, the Hurricanes only have the 3rd best odds to win the ACC (+400).

Billy Napier needs to avoid a third straight losing season, but the bookmakers don’t like his chances. The Gators season win total is set at just 4.5, which is a product of one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Miami

  • 7-6 Overall in 2023
  • 3-5 in the AAC in 2023
  • 6-7 ATS in 2023

The Hurricanes are coming off back to back Top 10 recruiting classes, and they loaded up on talent via the transfer portal this off-season. The top two names are QB Cam Ward out of Washington State and RB Damien Martinez from the Oregon State Beavers.

The offensive line is a group of studs that likely have a future in the NFL. The receiving corps is in good shape with senior Xavier Restrepo back after catching 85 passes for 1,092 yards and 6 TDs in 2023.

The defensive line is a lot like the offensive line, loaded with talent and future stars at the next level. While the Hurricanes lost a pair of safeties to the NFL, they bolstered the secondary with transfers Dyoni Hill and Mishael Powell from Marshall and Washington.

Florida

  • 5-7 Overall in 2023
  • 3-5 in the BIG12 in 2023
  • 4-8 ATS in 2023

The Gators are 11-14 the last two seasons under head coach Billy Napier, the worst stretch in Gainesville since the 70s. The Gators haven’t had three straight losing seasons since the 1940s, so it’s fair to say that Napier is on the hot seat.

The Gators bring back QB Graham Mertz, who ranked 1st in the SEC with a 73% completion percentage last season. Still he threw for a pedestrian 2,903 yards, 20 TDs and 3 INTs. It won’t help that leading receiver Ricky Pearsall has moved on to the NFL.

The defense struggled all year, but particularly during a five game losing streak at the end of the year as they allowed 38.2 points per game. This cost a handful of assistants to lose their job, but unless things improve dramatically in 2024 the next head on the chopping block is likely named Billy Napier.

Relevant Trends

  • The Hurricanes are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played in August.
  • The Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Florida.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 10 games played in week 1.
  • The Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • The Gators are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games at home.

PREDICTION: MIAMI 31 – FLORIDA 24

The Gators lost at Utah in Week 1 last year, and while the stat line for Graham Mertz looked good on paper (333 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT on 31-of-44 passing) the Gators trailed 24-3 in the fourth quarter of that game. The Gators lost 43-20 to Georgia later in the season, and Mertz threw for 230 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. It was another case of padding his stats in garbage time, with a pair of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. The Hurricanes have the better QB by far, and a team loaded with talent that should be ready to go for a rivalry game in Week 1.


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One comment on “Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes NCAAF Week 1 Betting Preview and Prediction August 31, 2024”


William Bryant

Your drunk if you think Mario Cristoball is going to win on the road at Gainesville in Week 1. He’s one of the worst coaches of all time, and you don’t just buy players and expect to win. This is Scott Frost and Nebraska all over again.

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