10* OVER Heat/76ers (PLAY-IN TOY)

Neither team thought they'd be in this position, but here we are. The winner will face the Knicks in the first round, while the loser will play the winner of the Hawks/Bulls. Philly is a different team with Joel Embiid in the line-up, as evidenced by the 76ers eight-game win streak to end the season. Miami got into the playoffs last year via the Play In Tournament. Plenty of experience on both sides. Plenty of familiarity between these teams. Embiid averaged 30.4 poitns, 9.2 boards, 5.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks once he returned and Philly hasn't lost a game since he has. Not like Miami will be rolling over here though, as the Heat come in healthy as well, with Bam Adebayo ready to try his best to keep up with Embiid. If Philly plays to a slower pace, it plays into Miami's strengths. With that in mind, we're expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish and in our opinion, everything does indeed point to the OVER as the correct call!

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10* UNDER Angels/Rays (AL NON-DIV TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're now finally anticipating a much lower-scoring "duel" here on Wednesday. LA goes with Reid Detmers, who is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, while the home side counters with Zach Littell, who is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. These teams have split the first two games of this series, with each game going well "over" the posted total, but with these two red hot hurlers squaring off and throwing deep into the latter frames against each other like we envision, the correct call as far as the total is concerned is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Blue Jays runline (AL EAST GOM) *Note, we also like Toronto on the moneyline.

We have an important early season divisional American League East getaway game North of the border between the Yanks and the Jays and despite the slow start for Kevin Gausman so far this season, we think the veteran will finally settle down here and we actually think that the value in this game is on the Blue Jays. Divisional games are always the most important, and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Toronto has taken the first two games of this series and now we look for the Jays to comoplete the sweep. Kevin Gausman hasn't suddenly forgot how to pitch and his first two starts are just outliers in our opinion (Gausman is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.) But Gausman has been one of the league's top 5 pitchers the last two years. He did lose to the Yanks in his opening start, and then in his last start he got roughed up by the Rockies. But the public saw that and has seen him struggle to start overall, but we're in the camp that believe's that there's a big overreaction now and the value has swung the other way (remember, Gausman had a 3.08 ERA at home last year. We're not taking anything away from Marcus Stroman on the Yanks (he's facing his former team in the Jays here again) as he's 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. The bottom line here though is that we just think the public is too quick to back the Yankees still after their quick start and we're also not going to OVERREACT to Gausman's shaky start; the play is Toronto!

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10* Mariners (BEST OF BEST)

Both teams are in need of a win, but Seattle more so. The Reds wins this year have come against sub-par teams. They swept the White Sox over the weekend, then fell 9-3 in last night's opener. That victory snapped a two-game slide for the hungry Mariners, who will look to keep the momentum rolling here with what we feel is for sure a starting pitching mismatch that works in their favor. The Reds go with Hunter Greene (0-1, 4.86 ERA), while the Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert (0-0, 2.66). At this price, we feel that BEST OF THE BEST call here as far as a side is concerned, is for sure on Seattle!

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10* OVER Cubs/D-Backs.

These two teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a slug-fest here on Tuesday finally in our opinion. Chicago has seen the total go "under" in four straight after last night's 3-2 win here to open the series. Note that Arizona has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The D-Backs have now seen the total dip "under" in three straight, but note that Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Kyle Hendricks is 0-2 with a 12.08 ERA for Chicago, while Tommy Henry is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA for the D-Backs. Everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Lakers (PLAY-IN GOY)

The Lakers won't be looking to leave anything for chance for here to avoid a possible matchup with the Nuggets, instead we're expecting the experienced visiting side to rally late and play tougher defense and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Anthony Davis had a huge year, and he'll be risking life and limb here to get the better of his old team. The Lakers beat New Orleans 124-108 in the final game of the regular season here and LA also won the In-Season Tournament over the Pacers. While we think the future is bright for the Pels, all signs point to LA coming out on top on Tuesday!

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10* OVER Reds/Mariners (IL TOW)

We're expecting some offensive fireworks here between the Reds and Mariners on Monday night. Cincinnati goes with Frankie Montas, while Seattle counters with George Kirby. We like each starter and aren't reading too much into either's early results. That said, the overall situation points to a slug-fest in our opinion. Seattle has now seen the total go "under" in six straight after its second straight loss to the Cubs last night. Despite that though, note that the Mariners have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 still after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Will be a nice night in the PNW and we're finally expecting these talented hitting line-ups to take center stage; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* Penguins (NON-CONF GOW)

No need to overthink this one. The Predators are locked into the first Wildcard and just need to end the season without any significant injuries. The Penguins have to win their final two games (and get outside help), to make a Wildcard. With the home side risking life and limb to secure a victory, and with the visitors just going through the motions here, we feel this to be the very defintion of "great line value." The play is Pittsburgh!

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10* Jays (ASSASSIN)

The Jays are 8-8 and the Yanks are 12-4. Chris Bassitt (1-2, 5.06 ERA) gets the call for Toronto and he'll be opposed by Luis Gil (0-0, 3.00.) The Yanks are off an 8-7 loss at Cleveland we think they'll stumble again here vs. the Jays, who took two of three from Colorado over the weekend, including yesterday's matchup by a score of 5-0. New York is primed for a letdown here, so give us Bassitt at home to continue to settle down and find his stride; the play is indeed on Toronto!

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10* UNDER Rangers/Astros (DUEL)

These teams have been involved in a few high-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a "duel" here in our opinion on Sunday in the finale of this divisional three-game series from Houston. Texas is 8-6 and Houston is 4-11. The first two games of this series have gone "over" the number, but note that Houston has now seen the total eclipse the posted number in four straight. The Astros did finally break their four-game slide with yesterday's victory. Two starters that are sizzling hot to open the new season go head-to-head and we're expecting them to take center stage here for this one and duel deep into the latter frames. Nate Eovaldi is 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA for the Rangers, while Christian Javier is 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA for the Astros. Everything finally points to a "duel;" the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Giants (IL GOW)

Blake Snell and the Giants are going to find a way to get the job done here in Tampa in our opinion. San Francisco bounced back from it series-opening 2-1 loss here to win 11-2 yesterday and we expect the visitors to keep that offensive momentum rolling hee to close it out. Snell is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA after allowing three runs over three innings in an 8-1 loss to the Nationals in his team debut on Monday. Perhaps he got caught looking ahead to this one? Who knows. Either way, Snell will be fine. Last year he faced the Rays with the Padres and he allowed two hits with 12 K's over six shutout frames. Shawn Armstrong (0-1, 5.68) counters for the home side, and he'll quickly make way for Tyler Alexander (0-0, 8.68.) Look for Snell to bounce back in familiar surroundings, as this is a major mismatch on the mound; lay the short price with confidence, the play is San Francisco!

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10* OVER Pirates/Phillies (BLOWOUT)

We had a play on the "over" in the Phillies' 4-3 win and while that pick came up short, we're now finally expecting a "slug-fest" here on Sunday. Philly has now seen the total go "under" in nine straight. But that fact has only helped in driving today's O/U line a little bit lower than it normally would/should be in our opinion. Pittsburgh's now seen the total go "under" in four straight. Mitch Keller is an unremarkable 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA for the Pirates. Philly will look to take advantage here and plate some runs for starter Zach Wheeler, who is 0-2 with a 1.89 ERA so far. Regardless, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* Jamahal Hill (UFC GOM)

With a line like this, the oddsmakers believe, or at least are trying to lead us to believe, that Jamahal Hill and Alex Pereiara are evenly matched, and really they are. It would not be difficult at all to write a convincing argument for either fighter to win, but the upside here for Hill to grab the light heavyweight title is the best overall option in our opinion. Pereirara is the current champ after beating Jiri Prochazka, but Hill is the former champ, who had to vacate the belt due to injury. Hill though enters back at the top on top form having won four straight fights. He wants the title back that he never even lost. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Hill and we think by hook or by crook, the ref will be raising the slight dogs hand at the end of the fight; the play is indeed on Jamahal Hill!

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10* Oilers (PACIFIC DIV. GOM)

This one is for all intents and purposes for the Pacific Division title, and because of that, we can't stress how important we feel that the home ice advantage will prove to be for the Oilers tonight. Vancouver has lost three of its last five. Edmonton plays with revenge after the 6-2 loss at Vancouver back in November. With everything on the line, look for EDMONTON to dig deep and find a way to deliver the goods!

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10* OVER Pirates/Phillies.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much higher-scoring shootout here finally between the Pirates and the Phillies on Saturday afternoon. The Pirates have seen the total go "under" in the first two games of this series, including in their 5-2 win here yesterday (Philadelphia won the opener by a score of 5-1.) The Phillies have now seen the total go "under" in nine straight. All of these "unders" has helped in pushing this O/ line a bit lower than it normally would/should be though in our opinion. Marco Gonzales is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA for the Pirates. Gonzales has allowed just three runs over 11 innings of work, but regression seems imminent finally here in our opinion for the veteran. The Phillies counter with Spencer Turnbull, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He's coming off a no-decision vs. the Cards. In our opinion though, each starter is poised to "get the hook early" here, and that'll lead to these bullpens exploding and this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Guardians runline Game 1 (ASSASSIN)

Overall we're getting great value on the home side on the runline option here. Public perception about the Yanks has driven this line out of whack in our opinion. New York is 10-3, while Cleveland is 9-3. Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 4.66 ERA) gets the call for the Yankees and he's allowed five runs off 13 hits over nine innings this year. He'll be opposed by Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 4.50), who has conceded four runs over eight innings. We like Carrasco here at home, as we feel Scmidt will struggle in this difficult road venue. While we clearly feel an outright victory is possible, in the end we're laying this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline option!

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10* Wolverhampton (SPREAD) EPL GOW.

We're coming down the home stretch here of the season and this is one that favors the visitors in our opinion. That said, at this price, the savvy wager is to grab Wolverhampton on the spread option (0.5 if you can get it, but also +0.25 as well is acceptable.) Wolverhampton is 12-13 and on a three-game winless streak, most recently falling 2-1 to West Ham. These teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse-fixture back in December and we could very well see a repeat here. Nottingham Forest is just 7-17. After upsetting Fulham 3-1, it immediately fell 3-1 at Tottenham last week. Home field has been anything but an advantage for Nottingham Forest this year, so play the Wolves on the spread option this weekend!

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10* Astros (ASSASSIN)

The Rangers' Dane Dunning is 1-1, while Houston's JP France is 0-1. Texas has lost four of its last five, including a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday. Dunning has a 4.15 ERA over 13 innings. The Astros' starting rotation is ravaged with injury, which has led to their 4-9 start to the season. France has a 4.76 ERA over his first two starts, striking out nine over 11.1 innings of work. These teams have already faced each other, which gives France the upper hand now here at home. The Rangers are tanking big time and we expect the hungry home side to finally bounce back in this favorable spot; lay the price, the play is Houston!

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10* OVER Pirates/Phillies.

Both teams, especially the Phillies, have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting some offensive fireworks here in the opener of this one. Pittsburgh is 9-3, while Philly is 6-6. The Pirates just had their three-game win streak snapped in the 5-3 home loss to Detroit two nights ago. They've been alternating overs with unders over their last eight games, and off the low-scoring loss just last night, we're absolutely expecting this pattern to continue. This is the start of four straight here in Philly. The PHililes have been alternating wins/losses over their last five games. Off a 4-3 win at ST. Louis yesterday, they'll be eager to break that pattern here at home in the opener of this one. Regardless, the Phillies have seen the total go "under" in seven straight now. But now we definitely feel the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. This is an ACTION play, meaning whoever gets the start for either team, this play will be valid. Pittsburgh goes with Jared Jones (1-1, 3.86 ERA), while Philadelphia counters with Ranger Suarez (1-0, 4.09.) Can't fault either guy, as they've been decent so far, but the overall situation, combined with the trends definitely point to this one being a "slug-fest" finally in our opinion; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Oilers (ASSASSIN)

A great price on Edmonton. This is the final game of a three-game trip for Vegas, which has lost the first two. It has a night off and then finishes the season with four straight at home. We say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" and that the "home ice" advantage will prove to be crucial for the Oilers in this one. Edmonton got off to a super terrible start at the beginning of the season, but the Oilers are firing on all cylinders here now at the end of the season, off back-to-back victories, also having three whole nights off after a 4-2 win at Calgary. Look for the well-rested home side to deliver the goods, the play is indeed on Edmonton!

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10* UNDER A's/Rangers (AL WEST TOY)

We have two really good starters going head-to-head here and we believe they'll battle each other DEEP into the latter innings, alleviating the pressure off the bullpens. Ross Stripling is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA for the Athletics. He's been great in his first two starts, last time out he gave up one run over seven innings, striking out three and walking none in an unfortunate loss to the Red Sox. The A's offense was shutout in that one for the second time in its previous three games. That offense will find it difficult again today facing Rangers' starter Cody Bradford, who is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.47 WHIP. With each of these starters taking "center stage" like we suspect in this one, all signs do indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* UNDER Mavericks/Heat (NON-CONF TOM)

Both sides have been playing to several high-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with some strong numbers/trends, finally makes the "under" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion. Dallas is off a 130-104 road win at Charlotte just last night, and now we're expecting fatigue to be a major factor here in the second game of the back-to-back. Miami has seen the total go "over" in seven straight after last night's 117-111 OT win at Atlanta, but note that the Heat have seen the total go "under" the number eight of their last 11 after three or more ATS victories in a row. With each team doubling down on the defensive end like we suspect after having played just last night, everything does indeed point to much more of a defensive affair here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. This number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* Thunder (BLOOD-BATH)

Two teams pushing towards the playoffs with just a handful of games to go, but the overall situation favors the home side in our opinion. Both teams played just last night. Sacramento snapped a two-game slide with a 107-77 win at Brooklyn, but with a night off before three straight at home to close out the year, can anyone say "letdown" spot here? The Thunder snapped a three-game slide with a 121-118 win at Charlotte, but it's now dropped five straight ATS. Note though that OKC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more ATS losses in a row. This is the start of four straight at home to close out the year and we're expecting the Thunder to set the tone early here and to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn; lay the points, the play is OKC!

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10* Bucks (EAST-CONF NON-DIV GOM)

We're getting down to the nitty-gritty here with just under two weeks remaining in the regular season, and it's "gut check" time here now for Doc Rivers and the Bucks, who enter having lost four straight SU/ATS. They play with revenge as well after falling 122-119 at Boston on March 20th, and note that Milwaukee is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU road loss vs. an opponent. Boston is off five straight wins, but it's been unable to cover the large spread of late. It did push on the 17-point home spread in their 124-107 win over Portland last time out, but with their final three games at home after this, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot in our opinion, but also a "look ahead." Add those two factors together you and you invariably get "trap game." This is a trap game for sure in our opinion for Boston, while we're expecting Milwaukee to risk life and limb to get back into the winner's circle and avenge the loss from two weeks ago at the same time. Let's bypass this small spread and instead play Milwaukee to win this one straight up!

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10* OVER White Sox/Guardians (AL CENTRAL TOY)

These two teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally anticipating a bit of a "slug-fest" here on Tuesday. Chicago has lost five straight, and the last four have all gone "under." That includes yesterday's 4-0 series opening loss here. Note though that despite this being a new season, it's still significant to note that the ChiSox have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a shutout divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Chicago is just 1-9, but Cleveland is 8-2. It's now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that the Guardians have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Both starters are decent, with Mike Soroka (0-1, 4.91 ERA) going for the visitors, and Logan Allen (2-0, 2.31) going for the home side, but despite who gets the start here, the overall situation, combined with the above listed trends, finally point to this total fying "over" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Nationals/Giants (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but despite a couple of decent starters going head-to-head to open this series, we're anticipating a bit of a slug-fest and for this total to ultimately eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Nationals are just 3-6, while the Giants are only 4-6. The Nats are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. Trevor Williams is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA for the Nationals, while Blake Snell is making his season debut here. He's looked good in Spring, but the overall situation points to this total sneaking "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch. San Francisco went 2-1 in its series vs. the Padres here over the weekend and all three games went "under" the number, but that's significant for us to take note of as the Giants have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is indeed low in our opinion, so the play is the "over!" 

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10* Purdue (GOM)

The Boilermakers beat No. 11 NC State 63-60 and we're thinking that they'll give the Tourney defending champs a run for their money here. UConn pulled away for the 86-72 win over Alabama. Zach Edey is a beast, so far averaging 28 points and 15.4 boards through the five tournament games. Overall the Boilermakers average 82.9 PPG, while the Big East champs averaged 81.6. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Purdue!

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10* Avalanche (DESTROYER)

We like Colorado to defend home ice here and to deliver the goods. A great price overall. Dallas JUST had its eight game win streak snapped last night in a 3-2 loss at Chicago as a -330 favorite and we feel this game here in Colorado the following night sets up as a classic "letdown" spot now for the Stars. Woudl anyone blame Dallas for taking a mental night off here and then preparing for its final four games, all at home and all favorable matchups (Buffalo, Winnipeg, Seattle and St. Louis?!) The Avs have been trading wins/losses over theri last five games, and off a 6-2 loss at Edmonton last time out, all signs point to this strong pattern continuing here; lay the short price, the play is indeed on Colorado!

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10* Cavaliers (ASSASSIN)

We had a play on Cleveland yesterday. Did the Cavs get caught looking ahead to this one in their 116-97 loss here to the Lakers, or did they just run into a red-hot team? We now think a little of both. Note though that the Cavs have in fact responded well in this spot for bettors though by going 7-2 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. The Clippers are coming off back-to-back victories, but with two straight vs. Phoenix after this, we believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead." In a contest that we see being decided by whichever of these hungry and talented sides has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Cleveland!

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10* Brewers (NON-CONF BOB)

Each team has won one game so far in this series, but here in the finale we feel the value swings to the home side to deliver the goods. The Mariners are 4-5 on the season, while the Brewers are 5-2. The Mariners got the 5-3 win yesterday, but they're still hitting just .211 collectively. Emerson Hancock gets the call for the Mariners and he's 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA after allowing three runs over five innings. The Brewers have a batting average of .267, which currently ranks eighth overall. Colin Rea is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA for the home side, and we feel he'll be the difference-maker here at home. Overall a really great price and spot for Milwaukee to bounce back in!

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10* Islanders (ANNIHILATOR)

The Isles have won three straight and they're in a dog fight with several teams for the seventh and eighth spot. They play with revenge after a 3-1 loss at Nashville in January. The Predators just snapped a three-game slide with a 6-3 home win over the Blues, but with another tough game at New Jersey tomorrow night, we feel the visitors get caught looking ahead here. The value swings to the revenge-minded and hungry home side that's in a fight for its playoff life; the play is indeed on New York!

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10* D-Backs runline (NL GOM)

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA after his first start for the D-Backs, wihle Max Fried is 0-0 with a 40.50 ERA for the Braves. Fried couldn't get out of the first inning in his first start, but he's still considered to be one of the best pitchers in the World. That said, we're fully expecting Pfaadt to match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a contest like that, the value invariably swings to the undervauled underdog. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the talented visting side on the runline option!

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10* Purdue (SIDE WINNER)

NC State has been the Cinderella team so far in the NIT, is not in all of College Basketball right now. That said, we think this Fairy Tale run is about to come to an end. Purdue, led by Zach Edey though will prove to be just too strong now we feel. Despite hitting just 3-of-15 3-pointers, the Boilermakers held on for the 72-66 win over the Vols, and we expect a much more efficient game this time around. NC State is led by big man DJ Burns, who has been phenomenal and who has put his name on the map, but Purdue's depth will finally be just too much for NC State to handle. Purdue ranks among the nation's best in several offensive categories and we expect the Boilermakers to keep foot on the gas from start to finish; lay the points, the play is Purdue! 

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10* Cavaliers (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

A great overall situational wager here, as after going 4-1 on their five-game Eastern swing, and now sitting in ninth spot in the West, we're expecting the Lakers to have a letdown here in their first game back, especially with the Wolves coming to town tomorrow. So not only is it a natural "letdown" spot, but it's also a "look ahead." Add those two factors together and you invariably get "trap game!" Cleveland will look to take advantage. It has a tough game here tomorrow night vs. the Clippers as well. The Cavs play with revenge after a 121-115 home loss to LA back in November, and note that Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is Cleveland!

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10* Arsenal (EPL GOW)

Arsenal is seeking the title and we're not expecting any hiccups here from Amex Stadium. Brighton is off a goalless draw with lowly Brentford, while the Gunners looked sluggish last time out vs. Luton, but still emerged with a 2-0 victory. The Seagulls registered their most shots without scoring in team history on Wednesday, and after that letdown, we're expecting another here. The Gunners are in a fight with Liverpool and won't be taking the foot off the gas; lay the price and expect a decisive win on the road in regulation for Arsenal!

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