The set-up: Flordia had three whole nights off and then fell to Colorado 5-4 last night. The Panthers had a 3-1 lead at one point and now I think they falter again here vs. the rested Predators. Nashville has had a night off after a 5-2 loss at Arizona, which concluded a 1-2 road trip. This is the opener of three straight at home vs. difficult teams and I believe the Predators come in focussed on the task at hand (Ducks and Wild up next, followed by a road game at Tampa Bay.) 

The pick: Florida is a poor 28-32 (-5.4 units) in its last 60 non-conference games, while Nashville is 26-15 (+5.9 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. A great situational play and a great price considering the circumstances. Lay it.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators.

The set-up: ODU is 1-5 and UAB is 5-1. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ODU has been terrible offensively, but I think this sets up great from a situational stand point for the visitors. 

The pick: UAB is on the verge of eligiblity, but with its bye week up next before a game vs. the Vols and then Southern Miss, I believe the home side does indeed get caught "looking ahead." This is as situationally based selection on the visitors.

8* play on ODU. 

The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. 

The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii.

The set-up: Boise State is 6-0 and BYU is just 2-4. BYU comes in desperate though after three straight losses. The Broncos are rolling, but I think they come out flat here after their 59-37 conference destruction of Hawaii. Yes Boise State posted 518 yards of total offense in the victory, but it also conceded 435. 

The pick: Both teams have injuries to starting QB's. BYU has the home field advantage and is the "hungrier" team here. I love this pick from an overall "situational" stand point, but also note that Boise State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by 17 or more points, while BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a loss by six points or less. Grab the points.

10* play on BYU.  

The set-up: Minnesota is 6-0, while Rutgers is just 1-5. I think the Golden Gophers go up early in this one and then coast in the second half. The Knights are actually decent against the pass and the Knights only average 229.7 YPG through the air anyways. The Gophers dominate the run game, and Rutgers struggles against the rush.  

The pick: But I think that plays into our hands in here in grabbing the massive amount of points. It's back to back "cream puffs" for Minnesota, with Maryland at home up next. No need to do anything fancy here. Additionally note that the Gophers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog of 14.5 points or more. No titanic upsets, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Rutgers. 

The set-up: I'm grabbing the points and expecting the 3-3 Terps to take the 4-2 Hoosiers down to the line. Indiana has won three of four, while Maryland has dropped three of four. The Terrapins are stout up front, allowing just 135 yards per game on the ground. The Terps can score as well, ranked in the top 50 as far as total yards of offense per game. 

The pick: Defense has been the weak point for the Terps, but Indiana has struggled as well, having allowed at least 28 points in eight of its last nine Big Ten contests. The Hoosiers are also a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, while the Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six off a blowout loss vs. a conference rival of 21 point or more. Grab the points.

8* play on Maryland. 

The set-up: Oregon State is just 2-4. Cal is 4-2, but it enters have lost two straight. Note that the Beavers play with revenge here as well after they fell 49-7 in this game last year. Last week the Bears managed just 256 total yards of offense, including only 66 on the ground. Yes the Bears only allow 18.3 PPG, but they only average 20.3 (ranked No. 116 in the country.) 

The pick: Beavers' QB Jake Lutton struggled vs. Utah last week, Oregon State still comes in averaging a very respectable 32 PPG. The defense has been the weak point in conceding 34 PPG, but it catches a break here facing the Bears vanilla offense. Finally note that Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home. I think the Beavers open up the playbook and keep this one competitive throughout. 

8* play on Oregon State.  

The set-up: I expect the 4-3 CMU Chippewas to lay the hammer down here on the 2-4 Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green has won two straight in the series, but I expect that trend to firmly go in the other direction after tonight. Previous to last week's win over Toledo, note that the Falcons had lst four straight, giving up 201 points and posting only 27 of their own in the process. The Chips come in off back-to-back victories, most recently taking care of winless New Mexico State. CMU won't be with QB David Moore, but senior Quinten Dormady had 134 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Aggies last week. 

The pick: Despite last week's win the Green Falcons are still averaging only 16 PPG. CMU is conceding 28 PPG, but so clearly the Chips' defense catches a break here as well. Finally note that CMU is a sharp 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Bowling Green is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the same points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Lay the points and expect a rout.

8* play on Central Michigan. 

The set-up: This is a big game for the 2-4 Boilermakers. Iowa is 4-2, but it comes in off a humblings 17-12 home loss to Penn State. Purdue on the other hand comes in off a momentum-building 40-14 victory over Maryland, with QB Jake Plummer throwing for 420 yards and three TD's. Iowa has the fifth ranked defense in the country, but Plummer won't be shy to try and get the ball down field whenever he can. The Boilermakers' QB has seven TD's and four INT's. Overall Purdue has six receivers with over 100 yards. 

The pick: Iowa' QB Nate Stanley had 286 passing yards in last week's loss, along with one TD and one INT. The Boilermakers' defensive numbers are poor, but it catches a break this week as note that the Hawkeyes have struggled in this spot for bettors, going a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference contests. Conversely this is a spot which the Boilermakers have excelled in by going 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Purdue.