Tom Macrina Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Pepiot has been solid for the Rays. His recent form suggests he can keep the Tigers offense in check, especially with his ability to generate strikeouts. Flaherty has struggled this season. He’s allowed 16 home runs in 12 starts, which is concerning against a Rays lineup featuring power hitters. The Rays capitalize on Flaherty’s inconsistencies, with Pepiot delivering a quality start to keep Detroit’s bats quiet. We'll back the road team. Let's cash some tickets!

The Pirates and Royals are two of the lowest-scoring teams in MLB (29th and 30th in runs per game), and both Keller and Lugo have been effective at limiting runs, with Keller allowing 3 or fewer ERs in nearly all starts and Lugo posting a 2.65 ERA. Kauffman Stadium’s neutral run environment (15th in run factor, 18th in HR factor) and both teams low home run totals (Pirates 61, Royals 63) reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The strong under trends (Pirates 6-4, Royals 7-3 in last 10; season-long 35-55-1 for Royals) and historical head-to-head data (under in 4 of 6) further support a low-scoring outcome. While Cruz and Witt could produce, neither team has the power to consistently drive in runs, and the Royals’ low strikeout rate may lead to contact but not extra-base hits against Keller.

The Washington Mystics’ offense can be inconsistent, but they face a Chicago Sky team with a porous defense. On June 17, 2025, the Mystics rallied from a 12-point halftime deficit to defeat Chicago 79-72, powered by Brittney Sykes’ 32-point performance. Washington has won three of their last four games against Chicago, covering the spread in each victory. Playing at home, where they’ve shown stronger recent form, gives the Mystics an edge. Meanwhile, Chicago’s 3-8 road record and depleted roster, despite Angel Reese’s rebounding prowess, expose their defensive weaknesses and lack of depth. The early tip-off further favors the home team.