Tom Macrina Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Falcons vs. Saints Under 48 (-110)

This is the highest total we've seen in 10 head-to-head meetings. The last time a number got this high was 11/10/2024, when it was set at 47.5, and that game stayed Under. The Under has also hit in their last three meetings.

The schedule spots favor the Under too. Atlanta is on its second straight road game, so some fatigue should show. The Saints are playing their third straight home game, and I talk about this all the time: three in a row makes a team comfortable and lazy. We saw it Sunday with the Bills.

I lean Falcons to win, but I'm not comfortable laying anything in the Hurricane Katrina game, so the total is the cleaner play. New Orleans leans on its pass game, but it's banged up offensively and needs to find some balance. I'm not sure how much Alvin Kamara has left. Atlanta is coming off a bounce-back win on TNF, so they get the extra rest. Their offense runs through Bijan Robinson, and a heavy dose of ground work chews clock and shortens the game. The Falcons defense is solid and generates pressure off the edges.

The trends back this up. Six of New Orleans last seven home games and 17 of its last 23 overall have gone Under.

This is a standalone game, and the public tends to pick a side in these spots. Here that's the Over, and the heavy ticket count is what's pushing the total up. The number opened too high to begin with. I don't mind waiting for the hook at 48.5, but we'll take the value where the public moves the total against us.

Take Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Under 48 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!