Tom Macrina Handicapper Reviews, Picks, Packages & Subscriptions

Los Angeles Clippers +2.5 (-115) at Golden State Warriors

The Clippers are in a good bounce-back spot here. They enter on a four-game skid, while the Warriors have won three straight. That momentum has probably pushed this number higher than it should be.

Golden State is 4-2 ATS this season but 0-1 when laying 2.5 points or more. The Warriors are also shorthanded with several players sitting, which thins their depth. Los Angeles sits at 3-2 ATS.

The situational trends favor the Clippers too:

Golden State on one day of rest: 132-127 SU but just 111-144 ATS since January 2022. Backing them in this spot has been a losing proposition.

The division rivalry: The Clippers are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings with Golden State.

Darius Garland and the Clippers should keep this tight down the stretch, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they steal the outright road win.

Take Los Angeles Clippers +2.5 (-115)

Kansas City Chiefs -112

We’ve seen this matchup already. Kansas City handled Denver comfortably in Week 1, and nothing about the Broncos has changed my mind since. Denver has played KC tough at home in the past, but that has come from keeping the game close, not from having an offense that can consistently move the ball. I don’t trust that unit to sustain drives against this Chiefs defense.

The Chiefs are also in a bounce-back spot. They’re coming off their first loss of the season, and that Seattle game was ugly, with only 3 points on the board. One bad offensive showing doesn’t erase what this team has done, and I expect a much sharper performance this week.

The line move backs this up. KC opened as an underdog and has flipped to a favorite, so the market is moving toward Kansas City as well. Even with the shift, -112 is still a fair price for the better team in a bounce-back spot against an offense that struggles to score.

We’re laying the small number with the Chiefs.

Let’s cash some tickets!

Atlanta Falcons +2 (-110) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Both teams are coming off wins, but the situations behind them are very different. Tampa Bay still hasn’t won a game at Raymond James Stadium this season, and the problem goes back further than that: the Bucs are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games. Atlanta, meanwhile, has a history of playing well on the road in divisional matchups.

Baker Mayfield is also a concern when he’s laying points at home. Since 2020 he’s 17-14 straight up as a home favorite, but only 7-24 against the spread. The Bucs win some of those games, but they rarely win them by enough to cover.

The Falcons are the steadier team right now, and they just handed San Francisco its first loss of the season. Getting points with the more consistent side, against a team that can’t protect its own building, is a spot we want to be in.

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2 (-110)