Tom Macrina Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Everton vs. Hull City: Draw +240

Everton are still unbeaten in the Premier League this season. David Moyes has them organized and hard to break down, but they haven’t won away from home in the league since February. That road form is why we’re not backing them to win outright.

Hull City have started well at home, with wins and clean sheets against Manchester United and a draw with Aston Villa. They’re the only Premier League side yet to concede at home this season. Sergej Jakirović has them well drilled, though they were winless in their last three league matches before the international break.

The defensive numbers give Everton a slight edge, and Everton have historically dominated recent meetings. Even so, Hull have shown at home that they can hold their own against stronger sides.

This profiles as a tight, low-scoring contest. Hull’s home clean-sheet record and Moyes’s defensive structure both point toward limited goals, and we expect neither side to leave with a loss. At +240, the draw is where the value is.

Pick: Everton vs. Hull City Draw +240

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New York Jets -135

The Browns are the public dog, yet the line keeps moving away from them. The market doesn’t believe in this team, and we shouldn’t either.

Look at what Cleveland has actually done. They got run off the field in Jacksonville in their one real road test. Their wins have an asterisk: one came out of a long weather delay in Tampa, and the other was against a bad Steelers team. The Carolina win was impressive, but it came at home, and that’s a different animal from playing on the road.

The Jets, meanwhile, have been competitive all season. Losing Breece Hall hurts, but this defense is good enough to keep them in the game and take away Cleveland’s easy looks. Rain is also in the forecast, which favors the better defense and a lower-scoring game, and that suits the Jets.

New York has a real shot at its first home win of the season. We’re laying the price and backing the Jets.

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Ravens vs. Falcons Under 43.5 (-105)

This total has been sliding, and the reason is simple: Lamar Jackson is questionable. Tyler Huntley looks set to start for Baltimore on Sunday night. He’s serviceable, but he’s not Jackson. The Ravens average 29 PPG, and that number belongs to Jackson. With Huntley under center, Baltimore has no reason to get into a shootout with the new-look Falcons. Expect them to lean on the run game and keep things simple.

Atlanta is happy to play that way. We expect the Falcons to control the clock with Bijan Robinson running behind a top-notch offensive line. There’s also a situational angle. This is Atlanta’s third straight primetime game, and this one comes on short rest. They’re back at home, which can breed a little complacency. We don’t expect the same offense we saw the last two weeks.

The trends back this up, courtesy of Steve Makinen:

Atlanta is 22-7 Under the total on short rest (fewer than 7 days) since 2012.

Atlanta is 17-6 Under in its last 23 primetime games.

In SNF games between non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 29-27 SU but just 23-31-2 ATS (42.6%) over the last 56.

In those same games, the Under is 32-16 (66.7%) over the last 48.

A backup QB, a run-heavy game script, a Falcons team built to chew clock, and a stack of Under trends all point the same way.

Take Ravens vs. Falcons Under 43.5 (-105).

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Eagles vs. Jaguars Under 42.5

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London | Sunday, October 11, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

The Jaguars are riding high. They just won on the road in Cincinnati, Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, and the defense is allowing only 13.3 PPG.

The Eagles are a different story, especially on offense. They went 0-for-12 on third down last week against the Rams, and they're 0-4 ATS, the only team in the league without an ATS win this season.

The injury report doesn't help. Davante Smith is out, and I don't expect Saquon Barkley to play. Backup Tank Bigsby is on IR, so Will Shipley will get the carries. It hardly matters, because you can't run on this Jags defense. That leaves Philadelphia one-dimensional, and they haven't shown me anything to suggest they can move the ball consistently.

Any fight from the Eagles will have to come from their defense, and I think it will be good. Quinyon Mitchell should be back, and this unit has had success against Lawrence before. In their 2024 meeting, they held him to 16-of-31 for 169 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Eagles have also won five straight in this series. I think the line is inflated, so I lean Eagles to cover, but the best play is on the total.

Hotspur Stadium has produced low-scoring results lately. The last seven games there have averaged 40.4 points. The Eagles need to turn this into a defensive slugfest, and I don't know how they score against this Jags defense. We'll take the Under, even with the total already down 2 points.

Take Eagles vs. Jaguars Under 42.5.

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