No surprise that there were eight goals scored when these teams met two days ago in San Jose with the Sharks winning, 6-2. The Over is 12-2-1 the last 15 times the Avalanche have played in San Jose. 

 The Sharks have tallied 19 goals in their last four games. Colorado has permitted an average of 4 goals during their past four games. The Avalanche are without key defenseman Cale Makar.  The Avalanche have some dynamic scorers led by Nathan MacKinnon. San Jose is last in the NHL on defense surrendering 3.8 goals a game. 
   

San Diego State is an excellent defensive team. But what the Aztecs also have going is they are more up-tempo than perceived and are very effective burying 3-point shots in transition. San Diego State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting percentage and ranks 25th in the nation hitting 38 percent from beyond the arc. This has been instrumental in the Aztecs scoring at least 75 points in eight of their last 10 games. I see them doing that again here as UNLV ranks 317th in 3-point defense.  The key to making this Over work, though, is UNLV contributing its share of points. The Rebels looked good during the second half against Fresno State in their last game this past Friday scoring 36 points. I think that carries over. 

Stan Van Gundy said it himself. The Pelicans can beat any team - and lose to any team. The proof is in the results. New Orleans has lost to the Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Pistons and Timberwolves. But the Pelicans also have defeated some heavyweights: Bucks, Suns and the Jazz two days ago at home.  Now the Pelicans draw the 15-18 Bulls. The Pelicans lack the maturity and track record to overcome this flat spot where they are mid-range favorites.  New Orleans is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times as a home favorite.  The Bulls had won five of six games before losing to the Suns and Nuggets, both at home. Phoenix and Denver are much better teams than New Orleans. The Bulls have covered seven of the past eight times they've been road 'dogs. They also are 10-2 ATS during their past 12 visits to New Orleans.  The Bulls defeated the Pelicans, 129-116, on Feb. 10 as 2 1/2-point favorites. Now look at the spread. It's not justified. Chicago hit a franchise-record 25 3-points in its win against New Orleans. The Bulls could be in line for another big night from 3-point range as the Pelicans rank 28th in 3-point defense.   

I think the oddsmaker was too influenced by Boston College's last game - a 94-90 home win against Notre Dame - when he set this total. The Eagles had averaged just 65.6 points during their previous three games. 

 Florida State is a high-scoring team, but the Seminoles also can play tough defense especially at home where they've held three of their last four opponents to 61 or fewer points.  This game figures to be a Florida State blowout. So it gives the Seminoles a chance to reduce the minutes of their starters providing extra time for their backup players. 
  

This is buy-low time on St. John's. The Red Storm lead the Big East in scoring and have a really good player in Julian Champagnie. But two losses in a row have caused the oddsmaker to get real down on the Red Storm.  St. John's had their worst shooting game of the season two games ago in an 88-83 home loss to DePaul. The Red Storm then had to play revenge-minded Villanova on the road and were blown out, 81-58. No shame in losing to the Wildcats.  I see St. John's bouncing back at home where it has covered six of the past seven times.  The Red Storm beat Providence, 92-81, on the road on Feb. 6. That was the most points the Friars have allowed all season. 

I'm locking into the Thunder at this number figuring superstar Luka Doncic is going to play. But Doncic isn't a given to play in this matchup. He's been bothered by lower back tightness. This is Dallas' final game before All-Star break so the Mavericks could choose to hold him to give him extra rest figuring they can still win this matchup without him.  Obviously it would be a monster bonus if Doncic is held out. But, again, I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm relying on the Thunder's spunk, the situation and the Mavericks' poor track record in spots like this. Oklahoma City has covered 67 percent of its last 52 road contests. The Thunder are 3-2 in their last five games, but coming off an embarrassing, 126-99, home loss to the Nuggets. That game was played Saturday. So Oklahoma City has had three full days to prepare for this matchup.  Dallas, on the other hand, is in action for the third time in five days. The Mavericks have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a home favorite. 
  

I get that Orlando is offensively-challenged and has lost its last four games. But who are the Hawks to be laying a road number like this? 

 Atlanta took advantage of a cold-shooting game by the Jimmy Butler-less Heat on Tuesday to score a 94-80 road win, which halted the Heat's six-game win streak. It was the Hawks' first game since Lloyd Pierce was fired. Nate McMillan is Atlanta's interim coach. Glad the Hawks could win for him.  But this sets up a letdown spot for the Hawks and Atlanta isn't nearly good enough to cover road numbers when not playing well unless their opponent turns in an "F" performance like Miami just did.  Even beating the Heat last night the Hawks still committed 23 turnovers. Atlanta has talent. But the Hawks lack chemistry and good coaching. McMillan is a stop-gap, who has never proven himself to be more than a mediocre coach at best.  Since Feb. 12, the Hawks have been favored four times. They lost straight-up in all four of those games falling to the Thunder, Cavaliers, Knicks and Spurs.  Atlanta also is dealing with a fatigue factor. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and without rest. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS the last 18 times when playing on back-to-back days.  The Magic were playing well up until about 10 days ago. They had defeated the Knicks, Warriors and Pistons. Then Detroit beat them in a revenge spot and the Magic followed that up with losses to the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks, although covering versus Dallas. The Hawks are a huge step down in class from the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks.