Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

N.L. Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Note that this play is on Game 2 of Wednesday's double-header. The skies look like they'll begin to clear for Wednesday's second half of the day-night double-header and I see this as a mismatch between Brewers phenom Jacob Misiorowski and Mets rookie Blade Tidwell. Misiorowski has made three starts covering a span of 16 innings and has given up just three hits and two earned runs. In his most recent outing he out-duelled Pirates ace Paul Skenes and the Brewers have now won each of his first three big league starts by a combined margin of 27-8. Tidwell has also made just three big league starts and they haven't gone well as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings and has yet to last four innings. Behind Tidwell is a Mets bullpen that enters Wednesday's action sporting a 6.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last week. In stark contrast, the Brewers 'pen has posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the same stretch. There's little separating these two clubs in terms of current form at the plate but we see enough of a pitching edge, not to mention an overall advantage in terms of run differential in favor of Milwaukee this season to get behind the short favorite. Take Milwaukee (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

This is a pretty standard total for a game at Coors Field but I believe it will prove too high on Wednesday night. The Rockies fell short last night and continue to struggle at the plate, ranking last in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last seven days. They'll face an elite opposing starting pitcher in Hunter Brown on Wednesday. Brown made five starts in June, allowing just four earned runs in 30 1/3 innings of work with those five games totalling 1, 8, 5, 5 and 3 runs. Austin Gomber will counter for Colorado. He catches the Astros in middling form at the dish right now, sitting 19th in wOBA and 15th in ISO over the last week. Gomber has made three starts since returning from the I.L. His overall numbers are bad but that's thanks to one awful outing against the Diamondbacks. In his other two starts he gave up just one earned run on six hits over 10 innings against the Dodgers and Braves. Both bullpens have been respectable lately with the Astros relief corps posting a 3.68 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last week and the Rockies 'pen logging a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*).

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Wednesday.

The Angels took the opener of this series in shutout fashion last night and I think the price is right to back them again on Wednesday. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Los Angeles. He's been terrific over his last two starts, allowing only two earned runs over 14 innings, striking out 21 batters along the way. The Braves aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now, ranking 25th in weighted on base average and 28th in isolated power over the last week. Didier Fuentes had his start moved from last night to tonight for Atlanta. The rookie right-hander has made two starts and has been lit up for 10 earned runs on 14 hits in just 8 1/3 big league innings this season. He'll face a Los Angeles offense that ranks best in baseball in both wOBA and ISO over the last seven days There's no real advantage in terms of the bullpens right now with both relief corps delivering inconsistent results over the last week. We'll back the surging Angels at a favorable price here. Take Los Angeles.

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Cubs on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday. Cleveland will hand the ball to Tanner Bibee. While he did pitch reasonably well over six innings in his most recent start, that was at home and the Guardians still lost that game 6-0 against Toronto. Cleveland's offense ranks among the worst in the majors - only Colorado has been worse in terms of weighted on base average over the last week. The Guardians will be up against Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga on Wednesday. He was solid over five economical innings (he needed only 77 pitches) in his return from the I.L. last week, allowing just one hit and no earned runs against the Cardinals. Even on an off night at the dish last night, the Cubs still produced five runs and won by three. They rank seventh in baseball in wOBA and fifth in isolated power over the last week. Also of note, Chicago's bullpen owns a collective 0.44 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last week while Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 6.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the White Sox on Wednesday as they look to bounce back from last night's blowout loss against the Dodgers. Chicago actually checks in ranked a respectable ninth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The White Sox will step in against Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday. They rank 12th in the majors in isolated power against southpaw pitching this season. Kershaw has made eight starts this season with the Dodgers winning only half of those games by more than a single run. Sean Burke will counter for Chicago. He enters in good form having allowed just one earned run over his last two starts, covering a span of 10 1/3 innings of work. Behind Burke is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).