Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

My selection is on New York over San Jose at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

I'll back the Islanders to finally earn their first win in their new building on Thursday as they get back on the ice after a Covid outbreak forced the postponement of a couple of games. For the Isles, they need to start winning now - as head coach Barry Trotz put it, these upcoming games are basically playoff games due to the giant hole they've dug themselves. I like their chances of busting out of their slump here against a Sharks squad that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that San Jose will turn to Adin Hill between the pipes in the front half of this back-to-back spot. Hill has been the weaker of the Sharks two goaltenders so far this season, recording a .897 save percentage compared to James Reimer's .934. Take New York (6*).

My selection is on Drake minus the points over Valparaiso at 9 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Drake Bulldogs on Thursday night as they look to put a three-game losing streak behind them and lay waste to an overmatched Valpo squad. We actually won with Valpo last week as it staged an outright upset of Jacksonville State. Since then, the Beacons have gone 2-1 but will be taking a big step up in class in their Missouri Valley Conference opener against Drake on Thursday. The Bulldogs, along with Loyola-Chicago, can be considered the class of the MVC. It's a competitive conference to be sure, as we noted in last night's play on Evansville over Southern Illinois. However, it is a little top-heavy. Yes, the Bulldogs enter this game on a three-game slide, but those three losses came against very capable opponents in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas and all three games were close. Prior to that stretch, Drake had opened the season with three straight wins including a 99-50 dismantling of South Dakota. While I do think we've seen the best we're going to get from Valpo (in that comeback win over Jacksonville State), I don't believe the same can be said for Drake. This is certainly a game that it has had circled since that loss to North Texas last weekend and I look for the Bulldogs to roll, noting that they've gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 23.9 points. Meanwhile, Valpo is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80+ points in its last contest, as is the case here. Take Drake (10*).

Thursday NBA Free play. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Raptors are coming off an outright loss as a home favorite against the Grizzlies two nights ago and should have little trouble getting up for Giannis and the Bucks on Thursday, who check in off a hard-fought two-point home victory over the Hornets last night. The fact that the Raptors are coming off three straight ATS losses is notable as they've gone an incredible 9-1 ATS the last 10 times they've followed such a stretch, outscoring opponents by 13.2 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a woeful 53-77 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive victories, as is the case here. Keep in mind, Toronto has held its own in this series lately, managing to split the last six meetings both SU and ATS. The underdog has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take Toronto.

NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

NOTE: Will downgrade this to a 7* play with Alvin Kamara officially ruled out.

I can really see this game going a couple of different ways - either the Cowboys take their frustrations out on the reeling Saints and ultimately run up the score, or New Orleans rides the emotion of playing a second straight primetime home game after last week's debacle against Buffalo, with it's do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara back on the field to an upset victory. Either way, I believe we're set up well for a high-scoring affair. We've seen this total come down a bit since opening. That's largely due to the uncertainty around who will start at quarterback for the Saints and who will be healthy enough to take the field for the Cowboys offense. We're likely going to see Taysom Hill take over under center for the Saints. There's only one reason for that move, and that's to give the offense a spark after four consecutive losses. It's easy to forget that even with a struggling Trevor Siemian at quarterback for the majority of the action, the Saints had put up over 20 points in three consecutive games prior to last Thursday's blowout defeat. As I mentioned, the Saints are also likely to get RB Alvin Kamara back on the field for this one. I don't need to tell you that he's the heart-and-soul of this offense with Drew Brees having retired and Michael Thomas sidelined due to injury. Speaking of players getting back on the field, the Cowboys should have both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back for this one. Even without that dynamic duo, Dallas still scored 33 points in last week's overtime loss to the Raiders. As long as the Cowboys have a healthy Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore aggressively calling plays on offense, there's reason to believe they can light up the scoreboard. The Saints defense, while stout at times, has sagged lately, largely due to shouldering so much of the load over the course of the season. Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed opponents to connect on better than 72% of their passes. The last two meetings in this series have been extremely low-scoring, totaling just 23 and 22 points. That's only serving to give us additional value with the 'over' in this one. Take the over (7*).

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on Dallas over Columbus at 8:35 pm et on Thursday.

The Stars are quietly rolling along right now, winners of five straight games, not surprisingly with four of them coming at home where they've gone 7-3, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average. The Blue Jackets on the other hand are just 4-5 on the road and have probably played even worse than that record indicates, allowing a whopping 4.2 goals per game. Dallas has been a streaky team in recent years, posting an incredible 16-3 record when playing at home off consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals. Here, the Stars will be seeking revenge for a 4-1 loss in Columbus back in October. It's worth noting that Dallas closed as a -140 favorite in that one. All things considered, I don't believe we're being asked to lay all that big of a price with the red hot Stars tonight. Take Dallas.

NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

We saw seven total goals between these two teams in the front half of this home-and-home series two nights ago. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Tampa on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in the Blues last 14 road games when coming off consecutive contests in which they allowed three goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blues have played on the road after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games, producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. The Lightning will be looking to tighten things up after consecutive losses in which they allowed eight goals. Note that they're giving up just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. They should have Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes after journeyman backup Brian Elliott manned the net in Tuesday's loss. Vasilevskiy owns a .926 save percentage this season compared to Elliott's .887. Take the under (10*).