Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

It’s not often that we see the Chiefs catching points at home, and that in itself creates value in this matchup. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing loss in Brazil against the Chargers, but with Andy Reid at the helm, they’ve consistently shown the ability to respond positively in bounce-back situations. That’s especially true in spots like this, where they can use the underdog label as added motivation.

Philadelphia got the win in its opener but didn’t cover, and the performance left plenty to be desired. The Eagles have a history of sluggish starts to seasons despite their overall strength – just last year, they were upset in Week 2 by Atlanta. Facing a desperate Chiefs team in Arrowhead is no easy ask, and I believe the number is inflated due to Philadelphia’s reputation as defending champs. This looks like the right time to step in on the other side.

Take Kansas City plus the points.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect nothing of the sort on Sunday. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for the Dodgers. He's been terrific since returning from injury this season, logging a 3.86 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts. Glasnow comes off a terrific start as he allowed just one earned runs (and curiously no hits) over seven innings while striking out 11 against the Rockies. The Giants represent a step up in class but perhaps not as big of one as you might think. Robbie Ray will counter for San Francisco. He's been a little shaky lately but his overall numbers this season remain solid with a 3.77 FIP and 1.18 WHIP across 30 outings. He does come off a positive start against the Diamondbacks, allowing two earned runs on three hits over five innings. Note that Ray hasn't allowed a home run in any of his last three starts. Both bullpens are in good shape right now. The Dodgers 'pen has logged a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with no blown saves (and two converted) over the last week. The Giants have posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with one save converted (and none blown) over the same stretch. Take the under.

My selection is on Arizona over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

These two teams have split the first two games in this series but I look for the Diamondbacks to prevail in Sunday's finale. Nabil Crismatt has been serviceable in the D'Backs starting rotation down the stretch. In fact, Arizona has won three of his last four starts. Crismatt has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his five outings since being inserted into the rotation. Bailey Ober counters for Minnesota. The Twins are a woeful 2-12 over his last 14 outings. You would have to go back to May 19th to find the last time Minnesota won an Ober home start. Prior to his most recent outing he had been tagged for six home runs over his previous four starts. With the bullpens a virtual wash, we'll back the underdog D'Backs on Sunday. Take Arizona.

My selection is on the under between Buffalo and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Both teams lit up the scoreboard in Week 1, but I see that as more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come. New York’s offense benefitted from a track-meet style game against Pittsburgh, while the Bills were forced into a shootout with Ravens (trailing most of the way). Neither matchup is comparable to what we’re likely to see here, as divisional contests tend to play out tighter, with more emphasis on field position and defensive adjustments.

The history between these two clubs in New Jersey strongly supports the under. The last three meetings on this field have all topped out at 43 points or fewer, and six of the last seven overall matchups have followed the same trend. Both defenses were humbled in Week 1 but should bounce back with more favorable conditions here, and neither offense has the consistency to sustain the kind of scoring outbursts we just witnessed.

Take the under.

My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

San Francisco got the job done in Seattle in Week 1 but didn’t escape unscathed, suffering several key injuries that will significantly test their depth on both sides of the ball. Even before those setbacks, I felt this matchup was a tricky one for the 49ers. Asking them to go on the road for a second straight week, this time short-handed, is no small task. The line has shifted heavily, but even so, I don’t believe it fully reflects the potential impact of those missing pieces.

New Orleans isn’t the type of team I’ll be looking to back often this season, but situations like this are where value can emerge. The Saints looked sluggish offensively in their opener against Arizona, but their defense kept them competitive, and there’s an urgency factor at play here as they aim to avoid falling into an early 0-2 hole at home. If they can simply get a little more out of their offense, that could be enough to keep this one tight and perhaps even steal the win outright.

Take New Orleans plus the points.

AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills are drawing plenty of attention this week after their primetime shootout victory over the Ravens. That type of game can inflate perception, though, and I see this as a potential letdown spot as they now hit the road against a divisional opponent. Buffalo’s defense gave up 40 points last week, which shouldn’t be overlooked, and the Bills have a history of tighter-than-expected games when visiting the Jets.

New York may have fallen short in its opener, but the offense showed life by putting up 30 points, which is more than enough to build confidence heading into Week 2. The defense struggled against Aaron Rodgers, but that unit has the talent to respond, especially at home. Recent history supports the case for the Jets, too, as Buffalo hasn’t won by more than a field goal in New Jersey in three straight meetings, losing two of those outright.

Take New York plus the points.

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants come into this game off a poor showing in Washington where they never really got out of neutral. I do think there’s some “buy low” value in this spot, though, as they should be plenty motivated to avoid an 0-2 start in divisional play. New York’s defense is the best unit on the field in this matchup, and if the offense can simply clean up a couple of key mistakes from last week – most notably their missed opportunity in a goal-to-go situation – they’re more than capable of keeping this one close.

Dallas looked sharp in spots against Philadelphia but ultimately fell short. This is a tough turnaround for the Cowboys, who have been in this position before – last year they rode the Week 1 momentum only to stumble as a home favorite against a clearly inferior opponent in Week 2. I don’t see them as being deserving of laying this number, especially against a divisional foe with more balance on both sides of the ball.

Take New York plus the points.