Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday.

They really can't set this total low enough for the first five innings on Thursday as we have the best starting pitching matchup on the board with Jacob deGrom going for the Mets against Max Fried of the Braves.

deGrom has returned in midseason form for New York after an extended layoff, posting a 0.72 FIP and 0.42 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings of work. He's held opponents to just 1.62 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). He didn't necessarily have his best stuff against the Braves on August 7th but still struck out 12 and gave up only two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. Note that for his career, deGrom owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts against the Braves.

The Mets bullpen on the other hand, has struggled, recording a collective 5.53 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the last seven games so we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here.

Max Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season for Atlanta, sporting a 2.45 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing only 2.8 runs per nine innings. He most recently faced the Mets on August 6th and gave up an uncharacteristic four runs, two of them earned, over six innings. He still owns a solid 3.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 14 career outings against New York. Take the first five innings under (8*).

My selection is on Houston first five innings over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Astros got back at the White Sox with a 3-2 victory last night and I look for them to get off to another solid start in Thursday afternoon's series-finale.

Luis Garcia gets the start for Houston. He's been good but certainly not great as a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Astros this season, checking in with a 3.93 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing 4.41 runs per nine innings. I do like the fact that he enters this start on a full five days' rest - that matters as we near the later stages of the regular season.

Chicago will hand the ball to Lucas Giolito who will be starting on just four days' rest after matching a season-high working seven innings in his most recent outing. It's been a trying campaign for the right-hander as he has posted a 4.10 FIP and 1.49 WHIP, yielding 5.24 runs per nine innings. Note that Giolito allows 2.5 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings this season compared to his counterpart on Thursday, Garcia. The Astros saw Giolito back in mid-June, chasing him after five innings but not before scoring eight earned runs.

We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 8.27 ERA and 2.33 WHIP over the last seven games and one that has been significantly worse on the road compared to at home this season. Take Houston first five innings (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Thursday.

I like betting on good starting pitchers to bounce back from poor outings and that's precisely what we'll do with Padres starter Yu Darvish on Thursday.

Darvish has actually been on the mound for losses in each of his last two starts with the most recent coming against the same Nationals club he'll face on Thursday. He certainly didn't have his best stuff against the Nats last time out but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting he owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. Darvish has been at his best at home, posting a 2.17 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 10 starts.

Washington will hand the ball to journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez on Thursday. He actually opposed Darvish in that 4-3 Nats victory last week. Let's not get too excited though as Sanchez still owns an ugly 7.48 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding 7.5 runs per nine innings in 30 innings of work this season.

The Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, recording a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing seven. The Padres 'pen has gone through a rough stretch recently but seems to be working its way out of it having entered yesterday's game with a collective 3.86 ERA over the last seven games before tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Marlins. Here at home this season, the San Diego 'pen owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 14 saves converted and seven blown. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Blue Jays got back on track with a 6-1 win over the Orioles yesterday while the Yankees snapped their losing streak in thrilling walk-off fashion in extra innings against the Rays. Here, I look for the Yanks to keep it going in the opener of this four-game series in the Bronx.

Jose Berrios will get the call for the Blue Jays. He's been a big disappointment at the front of the Toronto rotation this year, posting a 5.07 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.61 runs per nine innings. This doesn't appear to be an ideal 'get right' spot for the right-hander as the Yankees have already seen him twice this season, knocking him around for eight earned runs on 11 hits over 10 1/3 innings. For his career, Berrios owns a 5.05 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts against New York.

Frankie Montas continues to search for his first quality outing in Yankee pinstripes. I'm confident it's coming. For the season, Montas has recorded a 3.53 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while holding the opposition to 4.15 runs per nine innings. He's allowed 2.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Berrios. Note that Montas did face the Blue Jays once previously in his career, allowing three earned runs over six innings in a 5-4 victory as a member of the A's last season.

The Yankees boast one of baseball's elite bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Jays 'pen has been solid lately as well, I believe we have enough of a starting pitching edge that the later innings 'wash' won't play a factor. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Texas first five innings over Oakland at 2:05 pm et on Thursday.

The A's have taken the last two games in this series (we won with Oakland +1.5 on Tuesday and the 'over' last night) but I look for the Rangers to answer back, at least early on in Thursday's series-finale.

Zach Logue will get another turn in the rotation for the A's. He's struggled in his rookie campaign, posting a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while giving up just north of 5.7 runs per nine innings. To make matters worse, he'll be facing a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season (averaging 5.1 runs per game compared to its season scoring average of 4.4 rpg) and will be seeing him for the second time after tagging him for seven hits and four earned runs including two home runs in just 2 1/3 innings back in late May. Note that Logue hasn't just struggled at the big league level this season as he also recorded a 6.29 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 14 starts at AAA. He's in the A's rotation out of necessity only right now.

Texas will counter with Dane Dunning. While he hasn't had as good of a season as he did last year, he's still been serviceable, recording a 4.10 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 4.35 runs per nine innings. He gives up 1.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer home runs per nine innings in comparison with Logue this season. While Dunning didn't have his best stuff in his lone previous start against the A's this season, he still kept his team in the game, allowing just two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a start in Oakland back in late May.

With the two bullpens virtually a wash in terms of recent form and overall away/home numbers this season, we'll look to isolate A's starter Logue and back the Rangers in the first five innings only in this one. Take Texas first five innings (8*).

N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

Save for Tuesday's extra innings affair (even that game totalled only nine runs), this has been a low-scoring series. I anticipate more of the same in Thursday's series-finale.

Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Dodgers, apparently no worse for wear after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in an outing that was cut short against the Royals last weekend. The left-hander has been terrific for the Dodgers this season, posting a 2.18 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.61 runs per nine innings. Not a lot has been asked of Heaney as he generally works only 4-5 innings per start but that's fine for our purposes as the Dodgers bullpen behind him is terrific, having logged a 2.70 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Also keep in mind, the Brewers have struggled against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging only 3.6 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg).

Corbin Burnes will counter for Milwaukee. He's having another fine campagn, recording a 3.05 FIP and 0.92 WHIP while yielding just 2.64 runs per nine innings. While Corbin has struggled in two previous outings against the Dodgers over the course of his career, both of those came in Los Angeles (with one of them coming all the way back in 2019) and he's yet to face them this season. Note that Burnes owns a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home this season and a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in daytime starts.

The Brewers bullpen has actually been virtually on par with that of the Dodgers lately, sporting a collective 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take the under (10*).