Sean Murphy Handicapper Reviews & Picks

My selection is on Columbus over Vancouver at 7:05 pm ET on Friday.

Columbus should be highly motivated for this rematch after falling 5-2 in Vancouver earlier this season. The Blue Jackets are coming off a much-needed 4-3 win over the Islanders, snapping a six-game losing streak and keeping themselves in the thick of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race. Sitting just two points behind Montreal with a game in hand, this is a crucial contest for the Jackets before they face a tough back-to-back in Ottawa tomorrow. Playing at home, where they have been far more effective this season, Columbus will look to build off its last win and take advantage of a Vancouver team that hasn't been nearly as dominant on the road.

The Canucks enter off back-to-back wins, including a 5-2 victory over the Islanders on Wednesday, but they remain just 19-13-5 in road games this season, averaging only 2.9 goals per contest away from home. By contrast, Columbus has been a much stronger offensive team at home, averaging 3.7 goals per game while outscoring opponents by an average of 0.7 goals per contest. With the added rest and urgency to pick up points in the playoff race, I expect Columbus to come through with a victory.

Take Columbus. Projected score: Blue Jackets 4, Canucks 3.

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and San Diego at 9:40 pm ET on Friday.

After an unexpectedly high-scoring opener at Petco Park on Thursday, I anticipate a much different story in Friday’s contest, thanks to a strong pitching matchup. Reynaldo López takes the mound for Atlanta, and he remains one of the more underrated arms in baseball. López posted an impressive 2.92 FIP and 1.11 WHIP last season, and he has fared well against current Padres hitters, holding them to a combined .243 batting average and a .551 OPS. Meanwhile, San Diego counters with Dylan Cease, who finished last season strong, even earning MVP votes in the National League.

Weather conditions also favor the under, with a breeze expected to be blowing in from left field and relatively cool temperatures in San Diego. With two quality starting pitchers taking the mound and both teams looking to settle into a lower-scoring affair after an offensive surge in the opener, expect runs to be hard to come by.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Braves 4, Padres 2.

My selection is on Golden State minus the points over New Orleans at 8:00 pm ET on Friday.

Golden State is in a prime spot to bounce back after suffering consecutive upset losses to open its six-game road trip. The Warriors have now dropped three straight games ATS, but this matchup presents a favorable opportunity to turn things around. Despite recent struggles, Golden State remains a battle-tested team that has historically responded well in these types of situations. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are coming off a strong win and cover against Philadelphia and have now posted back-to-back ATS victories. However, they’ve been inconsistent of late, going just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS over their last seven contests. Notably, New Orleans hasn’t recorded three straight ATS wins since February, suggesting they could be due for a letdown in this spot.

Golden State’s urgency to get back on track should be evident from the opening tip, especially against a Pelicans team that has been up and down in recent weeks. Look for the Warriors to control the tempo and deliver a much-needed statement win on the road.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Warriors 125, Pelicans 106.

My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm ET on Friday.

This game has the potential to be a slower-paced, lower-scoring affair by today’s NBA standards, making the underdog points with Brooklyn appealing. The Nets have likely had this matchup circled since suffering an embarrassing 126-67 loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back in January. While Brooklyn enters this contest riding a five-game losing streak, its recent defensive play has been encouraging. Prior to allowing Toronto to put up 102 field goal attempts two nights ago, the Nets had held four consecutive opponents to 87 or fewer shot attempts. That’s a key factor in this matchup, as Los Angeles also prefers a more methodical offensive approach, having attempted 88 or fewer shots in four straight and six of its last seven games.

The Clippers come in riding a seven-game ATS winning streak, fresh off a convincing double-digit victory over the Knicks. However, it wouldn't be surprising to see them look past this game with a much tougher test looming against Cleveland on Sunday. Given Brooklyn’s ability to slow the tempo and the extra motivation stemming from the previous blowout loss, I expect this one to be much closer than expected.

Take Brooklyn. Projected score: Clippers 107, Nets 103.

My selection is on Atlanta over San Diego at 9:40 pm ET on Friday.

I’m higher on Reynaldo López than most and like the way this matchup sets up for him on Friday. López quietly put together an excellent 2024 season, posting a 2.92 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while earning an All-Star nod and finishing 11th in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. His ability to limit damage has been evident against the Padres, as current San Diego hitters have managed just a .243 batting average and a .551 OPS in 107 combined at-bats against him. Notably, none of them have taken him deep in those plate appearances. With the Padres' lineup still adjusting to some offseason changes, López should be able to settle in and put together a strong outing.

On the other side, Dylan Cease is coming off an excellent season, but he still lost 11 games, showing that he's not invincible. While his overall numbers remain impressive, the Braves lineup presents a tough challenge. Atlanta hitters have fared well against Cease, compiling a .271 batting average and a .755 OPS in 59 combined at-bats. Both Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna have homered off him, giving the Braves an edge in power potential. Additionally, San Diego had to dip into its bullpen heavily in yesterday’s game, using six different relievers. While it’s still early in the season and everyone should be available, the Braves have the depth and clutch-hitting ability to capitalize in key moments.

Take Atlanta. Projected score: Braves 4, Padres 2.

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Arizona at 9:40 pm ET on Friday.

After an offensive outburst in the series opener, I anticipate a much different game on Friday. While Chicago and Arizona combined for 16 runs last night, they only managed two home runs across 87 total plate appearances, indicating the scoring outburst was more about sequencing than raw power. Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Cubs, and while his overall numbers were unimpressive last season, he has historically handled this Arizona lineup well, holding current Diamondbacks hitters to a .205 batting average and a .603 OPS. While Taillon isn’t expected to dominate this season, his ability to limit hard contact against this specific lineup should help keep the scoring in check.

Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, who is looking to bounce back after an injury-shortened 2024 season. Despite dealing with blood clot issues that limited him to 13 starts, he still posted a respectable 4.25 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. Cubs hitters have had little success against Kelly in the past, managing just a .263 batting average and a .635 OPS, with only one home run in 80 at-bats. With both bullpens entering the second game of the season in good shape, expect a more tightly contested, low-scoring affair compared to last night’s opener.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Diamondbacks 4, Cubs 3.

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm ET on Friday.

Baltimore's offense exploded on Opening Day, launching six home runs in a 12-2 rout. However, I expect a much different outcome on Friday as they face a quality starting pitcher in Kevin Gausman, who has a strong track record against his former team. Gausman has held current Orioles hitters to just a .214 batting average and a .569 OPS over a sizable sample. While he didn't crack the top-10 in Cy Young voting last season, he still posted a respectable 3.77 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, giving Toronto a reliable presence atop its rotation. Expect him to come out sharp in his season debut, especially with the roof likely closed at Rogers Centre, eliminating any weather-related offensive advantages.

On the other side, Charlie Morton takes the mound for Baltimore. While he's no longer in his prime, he remains a durable and effective veteran, making 30+ starts for a fourth straight season last year while actually lowering his WHIP from 2023. Blue Jays hitters have struggled against him historically, batting just .246 with a .645 OPS. With this being only the second game of the season, both bullpens are in good shape, further supporting a lower-scoring outcome. Look for a much more controlled game compared to the slugfest we saw on Opening Day.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Blue Jays 4, Orioles 3.

My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm ET on Friday.

While many bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair due to the Rays playing their home games at a Spring Training facility, I believe the conditions and pitching matchup set up well for a lower-scoring contest. The forecast calls for warm temperatures in Florida, but a steady breeze blowing in from center should help keep fly balls in the park. Additionally, with both teams fresh after multiple days off, each bullpen should be at full strength, further limiting scoring opportunities as the game progresses.

Kyle Freeland gets the ball for the Rockies, and while his numbers last season weren't spectacular, he remains a capable veteran presence on the mound. The left-hander knows how to work through lineups efficiently, and against a Tampa Bay offense that is still adjusting to its new temporary home, he could find early success. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot takes the hill for the Rays after an impressive 2024 campaign. His ability to limit baserunners and work deep into games makes him a solid candidate to keep the Rockies' bats in check. It's also worth noting that Colorado hitters have had little success against Pepiot in the past, managing just a .132 batting average and a .316 OPS against him. With two steady starting pitchers and rested bullpens, I anticipate a relatively low-scoring affair.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Rays 4, Rockies 2.

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Purdue at 10:05 pm ET on Friday.

Houston has been one of the most dominant teams in the country all season, and I expect the Cougars to flex their defensive muscle in this matchup against Purdue. While the Boilermakers have been impressive in their first two tournament games, covering the spread in both, they now step into an unfamiliar underdog role against a Houston squad that has simply been more consistent and dominant throughout the season. Purdue may have faced a slightly tougher overall schedule, but Houston’s superior record speaks for itself, showcasing the Cougars' ability to take care of business against high-level competition.

One key factor here is Houston’s ability to make adjustments defensively. The Cougars struggled on that end of the floor in their last game against Gonzaga, but they should be laser-focused on tightening things up against Purdue’s attack. The Boilermakers are heavily reliant on their size advantage, but Houston's defensive intensity and physicality should limit Purdue’s ability to get easy buckets in the paint. Expect the Cougars to control the tempo, force Purdue into tough shots, and ultimately pull away for a convincing win to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

Take Houston minus the points. Projected score: Cougars 78, Boilermakers 63.

My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Tennessee at 7:35 pm ET on Friday.

Kentucky has already proven it can handle Tennessee, winning both regular-season meetings against the Volunteers. While it’s difficult to beat a quality opponent three times in one season, the Wildcats match up well with Tennessee, and I expect them to once again make this a competitive contest. The Volunteers will be motivated by revenge, but that factor is already baked into the betting line, creating value on Kentucky as an underdog. Despite Tennessee having the better overall record, Kentucky has battled through a tougher schedule, which should prepare them well for this high-stakes showdown.

Tennessee has looked sharp at times this season, but they’ve shown some vulnerability, particularly when dealing with Kentucky’s physicality and ability to dictate tempo. The Wildcats’ balanced offensive attack has given the Vols problems in their previous meetings, and there’s little reason to believe they won’t be effective once again. Kentucky’s ability to defend at a high level while capitalizing on key scoring opportunities should keep this game close throughout. With a proven track record against Tennessee and a battle-tested resume, look for the Wildcats to take this one down to the wire.

Take Kentucky. Projected score: Wildcats 72, Volunteers 71.

My selection is on Michigan State minus the points over Ole Miss at 7:05 pm ET on Friday.

Michigan State has looked locked in during this tournament, and I expect that focus to continue against an Ole Miss squad that may be due for a letdown. While both teams have navigated comparable strength of schedules this season, the Spartans have been the more consistent and battle-tested group, posting the stronger overall record. Their depth and defensive intensity should create problems for the Rebels, who have been riding a wave of momentum following consecutive upset victories. Michigan State’s experience and ability to control the tempo will be key factors in this matchup.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss has put together an impressive run, covering the spread in three straight games. However, sustained success in a high-pressure tournament setting can be difficult, especially against a team as well-coached and disciplined as the Spartans. Michigan State's physicality and defensive execution should disrupt the Rebels’ rhythm, while their balanced scoring attack will exploit any defensive lapses. With a clear edge in both talent and coaching, expect the Spartans to take control and pull away late.

Take Michigan State. Projected score: Spartans 74, Rebels 63.