Matt Fargo Handicapper Reviews & Picks

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Sunday Signature Enforcer. The Sixers are coming off a loss at Indiana on Saturday and has now dropped five straight games while failing to cover seven straight games and markets have been slow to adjust but we are seeing an adjustment Sunday with a lot of that based on opponent. The injuries have taken a toll namely Joel Embiid who has missed most of the season on and off and they were without Paul George last night and he is expected to get back out there tonight. Philadelphia has actually been better on the road with a 9-11 record compared to playing at home where it is just 6-13. The Bucks are riding a three-game winning streak and have won six of seven to move to 24-17 which puts them into fourth place in the Eastern Conference as they are keeping pace with red hot Indiana which has won eight of nine. They have been overpriced the whole season and while they have covered the last two games with big numbers, they are 7-11-1 ATS when laying six points or more. This is a spot Milwaukee has played down to the competition as it is just 5-8 in its last 13 games outright against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 with a scoring differential of 2.2 ppg. 10* (505) Philadelphia 76ers

This is a play on the IN INDIANAPOLIS JAGUARS for our Horizon League Game of the Month. Cleveland St. is rolling along with nine straight wins including seven straight in the Horizon League after opening conference play with a loss at Milwaukee. The Vikings have a half-game lead in the Horizon and are back on the road where they are 4-4 and they have a chance to stay where they are, playing the bottom three teams in the conference in their next three games. This is not the easiest of spots however as they are 7-1 in Quad 4 games but only on of those has been on the road and that was at No. 339 Green Bay where they were actually getting points and are favored for the first time on the road this season. IU Indianapolis has had a rough stretch of it of late as it is 2-8 over its last 10 games but six of those were on the road where the Jaguars went 0-6 and their 2-2 record at home includes a loss by just two points against Northern Kentucky. They are 2-3 in Quad 4 games, two losses by two and three points. 10* (844) IU Indianapolis Jaguars

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our CBB Sunday Star Attraction. Illinois comes in following a burial of Indiana in Bloomington as it built a 30-point lead in the first half and never looked back. The Illini remain on the road where they are 3-1 and this is a big test but they have done their part. After a loss in their first Quad 1 game against Alabama, they have gone 5-2 since then with the losses coming by two and four points. Despite a 5-2 record in the Big Ten Conference, which is good for fourth place, they are the top team in the NET Rankings at No. 7. Michigan St. has surprised some with their recent run which has reached 10 straight wins and it leads the conference with a 6-0 record. Impressive for sure in a deep conference but the Spartans have yet to face a team ranked in the top eight in conference NET rankings and after this, their next four games are against teams ranked outside the top 30. This is skewing the record for sure and with a backloaded schedule that closes with seven straight Quad 1 games, this is not a team to be trusted just yet. 10* (833) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CBB Saturday Late Powerhouse. Hawaii had its three-game winning streak snapped with a loss at home on Thursday night against CS Northridge by 23 points, its worst loss of the season. The Warriors remain on the island looking to bounce back in a series they have owned with six straight wins. The loss dropped them to 9-4 at home but two of those were in Quad 2 games while the loss to the Matadors was a Quad 3 game where they are also 0-2. Hawaii has had a pair of overtime wins at home in quad 4 games but all others have been blowouts. CSU Bakersfield has been off since last Saturday to accommodate for the travel and they are coming off a home win over Northridge in their last game to improve to 3-3 in the Big West Conference. The venue has been the difference in all aspects as the Roadrunners are 3-0 in home games and 0-3 in road games within the conference and overall, the home team is 14-2 in 16 true home court games. This is a Quad 3 game and CSU Bakersfield is 0-2 on the road in these, losing by 13 and 20 points. 10* (824) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. This is the game of the weekend and the home field will be the difference. We cashed easily with Buffalo last week even after they fell behind 7-0 in the first few minutes of the game. The Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. They finished one spot below Baltimore in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but we still feel this is the better of the two teams, not based just on the seeding but based on the makeup of this roster from top to bottom. It is the playoffs so we cannot bank on any revenge but the Bills will have that extra step after getting blasted in Baltimore 35-10 in Week Four in what was a horrible spot playing on short rest in their third straight primetime game. Baltimore is playing at a peak level now as it has won and covered five straight games with all of the victories by at least two touchdowns but it was expected according to the markets as the Ravens were favored by at least 6.5 points in all of those games. But we do not think they should be laying points here although it is close to a pickem as it is based on public perception with everyone talking about them and Buffalo has not been a home underdog since the final week of the 2020 season. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again leading an offense that is No. 1 in Offensive EPA. The Ravens have averaged 29.6 ppg on the road against teams allowing 22.4 ppg but the Bills are giving up just 16.4 ppg at home and the loss of Zay Flowers is huge for the Ravens. Turnovers are huge in these swing games and Buffalo has the situational edge as we play against road teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 67-26 (72 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +5.9 ppg. 10* (394) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Divisional Game of the Year. There are two teams remaining in the postseason that are ranked in the top ten on both Offensive and Defensive EPA, Detroit and Philadelphia, with both tied at No. 5 for best in Net EPA. The Eagles had the one hiccup against Washington where they lost 36-33 on a last second touchdown and they have now won 13 of 14 games since a 2-2 start and the loss to Tampa Bay was the only one of the three that was not decided in the final half minute. This team is built to win right now and while we played against them last week, they were focused enough to win that game even if the Packers did not get hit with the numerous injuries they incurred throughout the game. We won with the Rams over Minnesota on Monday with that being just as much of a play fading the overrated Vikings as it was playing on the Rams. Los Angeles was displaced to Arizona for the few days leading up to that game and it was a moment where they felt a surreal situation according to a few of the players and the game was their focus. Now having to go back to Los Angeles to pack up again, the reality of the tragic situation has set in and while real life and football are usually separated, this is a tough one. The Rams now have to make the long trip out east in a very tough spot. This game sets up similarly for the Rams as it did with Houston and we are going against the disadvantage here. Of the top ten defenses in the NFL in EPA, eight made the playoffs and four of the top five are gone (Denver, Minnesota, Green Bay and Los Angeles Chargers) so what does that tell us? A great defense needs an above average offense to go with it and of those four losing teams, only Green Bay was inside the top 12 and this week, six of the eight teams are No. 9 or better in Offensive EPA with the Texans and Rams being the two exceptions. That does not mean they do not have a chance but it is not in their favor having to go on the road. While the game was moved to Arizona, the Rams were still listed as the home underdog and teams that won as home underdogs in the Wild Card round and are now on the road have gone 2-15 ATS. 10* (392) Philadelphia Eagles