Matt Fargo Handicapper Reviews & Picks

This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. Tampa Bay is making a big playoff push as the Rays were coming off a pair of sweeps against Washington and Seattle and then took the opener on Thursday to make it seven straight wins but they allowed five runs in the second inning last night and could not recover. We thing this run is an illusion and they Rays are being overvalued because of it and they are still a sell high team. Shane Baz is coming off a pair of quality outings following a poor run and even though he shut down Seattle at home time out, he has a 6.47 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 14 starts at their temporary home. The Guardians are back to .500 overall and are still in the hunt as they are 2.5 games out with 22 games with this being another huge game. The Guardians are at two games under .500 but have gained positive units thanks to being undervalued. Tanner Bibee has been up and down and more so down on the road but that is due to allowing 18 home runs in 15 starts. 10* (967) Cleveland Guardians

This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. San Francisco continues to roll along as it has won five straight games and 11 of 12 following an 8-2 win on Friday in the series opener. The Giants have gone from out of playoff contention to three games over .500 which puts them four games behind the Padres with 21 games left. They come into Saturday as the popular road favorite not only because of the streak but because Justin Verlander is on the hill. He has not been close to the pitcher of old as he has a 4.44 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through 24 starts and this includes a 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 road outings. St. Louis is all but done at two games under .500 as it had its two-game winning streak snapped on Friday. They are still five games over .500 at home and turn to Andre Pallante who looks to build on a solid start last time out after an awful run. His ERA numbers are worse than Verlander but he is pitching to a 4.34 ERA (4.40 for Verlander) and has the better xFIP and a near identical WHIP. 10* (960) St. Louis Cardinals

This is a play on the TOLEDO ROCKETS for our Saturday Free Play. Western Kentucky is off to a 2-0 start with unimpressive wins over Sam Houston St., which is picked to finish near the bottom of C-USA ahead of only newcomers Delaware and Missouri St., and North Alabama of the FCS. Both were blowouts as they should have been as the Hilltoppers were favored by double digits in each but now they hit the road for the first time with just six returning starters. They have dominated on offense led by quarterback Maverick McIvor who has thrown for 706 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions but here comes the real test. We faded Toledo last week at Kentucky and the Rockets came away with the backdoor cover as they scored with two minutes left to sneak under the number. The offense managed only 329 yards and this will be a breakout game from a veteran offense with eight starters back. They head home for not only a bounce back situation but also playing with revenge following a 26-21 loss last season as they led throughout until five minutes remaining, allowing the final 16 points of the game. Toledo has won 14 consecutive home openers, going 10-4 ATS in those games. Play (384) Toledo Rockets

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This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our CFB Saturday Late Night Powerhouse. UCLA got blown out at home against Utah in its season opener and that was likely more of an indication of how good this Utes is when they are healthy which they are to begin the season. The Bruins are coming off a 5-7 season in the first with head coach DeShaun Foster and there is not much expected this season unless they can get the most out of Tennessee transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He struggled against the Utes but that is a real defense and he takes a big step down here. Because of the blowout defeat, the value is now on the Bruins in what has turned into a small reverse line move. UNLV is off to a 2-0 start but it won at Sam Houston St., which is picked near the bottom of Conference USA and is playing its home games an hour away from campus due to stadium renovations and at home against Idaho St. of the FCS by just seven points. The Rebels lost 16 starters from last season as well as head coach Barry Odom who turned this thing around and we are not a fan of Dan Mullen so matter his SEC background. 10* (405) UCLA Bruins

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Saturday Marquee Star Attraction. Michigan has not covered the big numbers at home against weak nonconference opponents over the last two seasons and that was extended in its season opener this year against New Mexico in a 34-17 win. The question is did the Wolverines play it vanilla as to not show much or was it an actual struggle. Probably a mixture of both but the offense looked very good as Bryce Underwood completed 21-of-31 passes for 251 yards and a touchdown in his collegiate debut while running back Justice Haynes rushed for 159 yards on 16 carries (9.9 ypc) but now the freshman Underwood has to go on the road in a hostile environment behind a Michigan team that has failed to cover its last five nonconference road games. Oklahoma is coming off an uneven performance against Illinois St. as it only led 21-3 going into the fourth quarter but still piled up 495 total yards and quarterback John Mateen looked great. The Sooners are 15-4 at home under Brent Venables while going 11-5 ATS as home chalk. 10* (400) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. LSU is now the toast of the SEC following its upset win over Clemson and the Tigers have moved to No. 3 in the AP Poll which we all know is meaningless but now they feel good about themselves and maybe a little too much. This is a letdown spot following that big win but that is negated with this being their home opener and it is at night in Death Valley so we cannot bank solely on a letdown. We can bank on this being a sandwich game as LSU has Florida on deck next week in a revenge game that is their last actual loss. The line is inflated because of last week and the Tigers are not going to go all out here and show too much with the Gators coming to town next week. Louisiana Tech is coming off a bad 24-0 win over SE Louisiana as it was actually outgained but it too could have played the bare bones of the playbook. The Bulldogs are contenders in C-USA so this is a solid team and while we are not expecting the win, they have not been an underdog of more than five touchdowns since 2014. 10* (389) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS as part of our CFB Saturday Evening Three-Pack SWEEP. This is another revenge game that we are eyeing as Michigan St. lost at Boston College last season in a game it should have won and it ended up sending them spiraling, starting a 2-7 season ending skid. The Spartans now have three straight losing seasons, the first time this has occurred since 2004-2006, and expectations are finally high as head coach Jonathan Smith is going to turn this program around. The Spartans took out Western Michigan last week 23-6 with the only points allowed coming on a pick six from the backup quarterback. Junior quarterback Aidan Chiles looked composed, and the Spartans run game, led by sophomore running backs Makhi Frazier and Brandon Tullis, helped control the tempo. Boston College rolled over Fordham to open the season 66-10 but that was against a Rams team that is plain awful and won only two games last season. The Eagles offense is not as good as it looked last week, especially with only two starters back on the offensive line, and the defense has front seven issues. 10* (392) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES as part of our CFB Saturday Evening Three-Pack SWEEP. We lost with the Hokies last Sunday as they were in the game throughout but big plays did them in. Heading into the fourth quarter, South Carolina led 10-8 and it took a punt return touchdown to put the game away, and a late 64-yard touchdown made the final score look much worse than it was. Virginia Tech actually outgained the Gamecocks 336-328 so it was a closer game as the Hokies allowed a first drive touchdown and that long touchdown late as the defense was outstanding in-between. Now back home in a big revenge spot, we expect the Hokies to bounce back and a win here will likely put them at 3-1 heading into ACC play as they face Old Dominion and Wofford next. Vanderbilt was not tested against Charleston Southern of the FCS so we put little stock in that victory. The Commodores are coming off their first winning season in 12 years and expectations are high again but this is not the spot even with Diego Pavia, who does have two impressive wins at Auburn, as Blacksburg at night is a task. 10* (388) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS as part of our CFB Saturday Evening Three-Pack SWEEP. We played against Tulane last week and got burned with Northwestern which turned the ball over five times. Tulane contended in the AAC last season as it finished 7-1 but lost to Army in the championship game and then got rolled by Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. We expect a tumble as the Green Wave lost a lot to the transfer portal namely Darian Mensah who left for Duke as well as all everything running back Makhi Hughes and their top receivers. They put up 269 rushing yards last week which was impressive but this is not a good situation coming off that win where they thought they were disrespected by Northwestern for a uniform consideration and having a game at Duke and facing Mensah next week. South Alabama is coming off a win over Morgan St. and now catching double digits at home for no real reason. The Jaguars are coming off a third straight winning season and are expected to contend in the Sun Belt West Division and this is just the fourth time since 2021 they are a home dog. 10* (382) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Saturday Revenge Rout. UTSA is our pick to win the AAC and they were one of the favorites last season and while they were undefeated at home, it was the opposite on the road where they went 0-6 including a pair of bad losses at Rice and Tulsa by a combined three points. They are coming off a decent performance at Texas A&M as both sides were competent against a tough P4 team and now are back home. This offense is going to be elite once again. They bring back quarterback Owen McCown, part of nine offensive starters coming back and will not lay up here. This is an intense rivalry as these schools are 50 miles apart and UTSA is out for major revenge following a 49-10 loss last season. Texas St. is coming off a win at home over Eastern Michigan as the offense racked up 606 total yards while putting up 52 points but the defense was a concern, allowing 391 yards against an offense that brought back only four starters on a bad road team. Texas St. will be on the wrong end of this I-35 rivalry that could get ugly. 10* (360) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Saturday Contrarian Crusher. In one of our video conference previews, one of the futures was to play Rutgers under 5.5 +120 with part of the thinking a split in the first two games against the MAC and the Scarlet Knights nearly lost the first one against Ohio, escaping with a three-point win. This is an experienced team but there is still a lack of talent and they cannot be laying this number which is slightly higher than what they put down last week. The offense was good but not great against the Bobcats as they gained only 399 yards and were shut down in the second half after adjustments were made. The defense was the big concern as they allowed 440 total yards and this is where the issues were last season. Miami did not get on the scoreboard last week against another Big Ten team, losing 17-0 at Wisconsin. Kudos to the defense allowing only 17 points and that was with the Badgers possessing the ball for 39 minutes. The RedHawks has the ball for under 21 minutes so it is hard to get a take but we are all over this number. 10* (353) Miami RedHawks

This is a play on the OREGON ST. BEAVERS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Oregon St. got rolled at home against who we think is a very underrated California team so we missed on that easy cover but it sets up a situation to take the Beavers in a great bounce back spot. The Beavers were one of the most inexperienced teams in the country last season but opened up 4-1 before faltering after that to finish 5-7 but now they are in the top 30 in experience even though that did not show last week. Duke transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy was not horrible but we do expect a better game after facing an improved Cal defense. They gave up two passing touchdowns in the first quarter so they had to play from behind and we do not expect the Bulldogs to take advantage. Fresno St. lost big at Kansas to open the season but bounced back last week at home against Georgia Southern and are now back on the road in a bad spot. The big concern about Fresno St. and the coaching is that there is no FBS head coaching or coordinator coaching among the three. 10* (350) Oregon St. Beavers

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This matchup sets up to be an absolute annihilation. Navy rolled over VMI as expected in a 52-7 blowout as it racked up 464 yards on the ground and while it will not reach that here, it sadly for the Blazers could be close. The Midshipmen are coming off a 10-3 season and bring back the No. 16 most experienced team in the country. They improved by 71 ypg and nearly 14 ppg on offense and have eight starters back including quarterback Blake Horvath, who also led the team in rushing, part of a group of seven of the top eight rushers returning. With Tulsa on deck, there is no chance of a lookahead and they will continue to pound the ball. UAB looked good on offense with 52 points but had to rally from a 28-17 third quarter deficit and the defense was atrocious against FCS Alabama St., allowing 42 points and 514 total yards including 202 yards rushing. Not ideal. The Blazers are 0-12 on the road under head coach Trent Dilfer and are 0-7 following a win, covering none of those games. 10* (346) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for a CFB Conference Game of the Month. Liberty is picked to win Conference USA but is coming off a lethargic season opener as it defeated Maine 28-7, needing 21 fourth quarter points to break a 7-7 tie and the Flames outgained Maine by only a 391-316 margin. This result only helps us here as that score against the Black Bears will keep bettors off and that is just fine as the value is in place. The Flames bring back an experienced offense led by transfer quarterback Ethan Vasko but it is the defense that is the strength with eight starters back and No. 1 ranked among all three levels. Liberty had its 12-game home winning streak snapped last season with a 31-21 upset loss to the Gamecocks so there is revenge in play. We won with Jacksonville St. last week which was more of a play against UCF which is young and inexperienced. That is the case for the Gamecocks as well as they have just six starters backs and are No. 136 in experience among 136 teams. The reigning C-USA championship fall flat early Saturday. 10* (325) Liberty Flames