John Ryan Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Guardians vs Red Sox

1:35 ET | Fenway Park

8-Unit bet on the Red Sox using the -1.5 run line.

The Red Sox are priced as -125 favorites so betting the money line is an acceptable strategy. I do recommend a combination wager placing 5 units on the money line and 3 units on the -1.5 run line.

The weather will be on the cooler side with temperatures just under 50 degrees amid cloudy skies. Showers are forecast to begin around 5 ET and later so the game is expected to be completed without any weather issues or delays.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an 88-75 (54%) record averaging a +110 underdog and earning a 12% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $21,430 profit. Using the -1.5 run line has produced a 33-39 record (46%), but by averaging a +148 wager has produced a 16% Roi making the Dime Bettor a $17,743 profit. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home teams playing on Thursday.

·       That home team is averaging 4.2 to 4.5 RPG for the season.

·       The matchup is two teams from the same league.

·       The opponent’s season-to-date starter ERA is 3.75 or lower for the season.

Thursdays are an important day in MLB schedules as they either are the first game of a series or the last game of a series. This game is the last game of the four-game series against the Guardians with the Red Sox looking to even the series at 2-games each with a win today.

Kraken vs Wild

(Thursday) 7 ET | ESPN

8-Unit bet on the Kraken priced at 120 underdogs using the money line.

The following NHL betting algorithm has produced a 122-129 record for 49% winning bets, but by averaging a 139-underdog wager has earned a 16% ROI making the Dime bettor a $51,506 profit since 2010. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road underdogs priced between 100 and 180 using the money line.

·       This dog has allowed four or more goals in each of their last two games.

·       The host is coming off a game allowing no more than one goal.

If the game occurs after game number 60 (final 25% of the season) these teams have produced a 33-22 SU record for 60% winners and have averaged a 137 wager earning a 40% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $28,330 profit.

The Thursday card is quite small with most of the teams having the day off ahead of the weekend series. This matchup of NL West foes will start at 9:45 ET and is the first game of a four-game series.

For the season the Diamondbacks are off to a 9-10 start averaging a -104 wager and a losing-money -11% ROI. They have done quite well, though with a 10-4-5 first five record and a solid 13-6 record where they or their opponent scores in the first inning. The biggest problem for the Diamondbacks is their bullpen that is allowing an average of three runs per game ranking 24th in MLB. The Diamondbacks bullpen has posted a 2-6 record including only three saves and five blown saves. So, that unit needs to improve quickly for the Diamondbacks to contend for the playoffs.

The Giants Results Having Posted a Multiple-Run Inning

The Giants are 8-11 averaging a -104 wager and a losing-money -23% ROI for the season. They have been slow starters as evidenced by their anemic 5-13-1 first five innings record. They rank 20th in MLB with 18 multiple run innings, but they have attained a 76-36 (68%) record averaging a -108 wager and earning a 27% ROI when posting at least one multiple-run inning in games played over the past two seasons and an impressive 39-10 (80%) record when these games have been played at home.

Who is Starting for the Diamondbacks?

The Diamondbacks will have right-hander Ryne Nelson on the hill, who was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the second round of the 2019 June Amateur Draft and made his MLB debut on September 5, 2022. He averages 95 MPH with his fastball, 91 MOH with a cutter, 83 MOPH with the sider, 85 MPH with the change, and 76 MPH with the curve. However, he rarely throws the curve ball and relies mostly on his fastball and cutter that account for 75% of his offerings. His fastball is flat and gives batters a great opportunity to get the barrel on the ball and drive it into the gaps. He is allowing a poor 91 MPH exit velocity and a 44% hard-hit percentage this season.

The Giants Patrick Bailey and Matt Chapman are pounding the ball averaging better than 93 MPH exit velocities. Chapman, LeMonte Wade, Jr, and Michael Conforto have posted 50% or better hard-hit percentages. The probability is high that the Giants will have at least one multiple-run inning leading them to the victory tonight.

What are My Predictive Models Projecting?

From the predictive models, the Giants have an 85% probability of posting at least one multiple run inning and that their starter Logan Webb will complete more than five innings. The Giants are 44-10 (82%) averaging a -145 wager and earning a highly profitable 44% ROI in home games where their starter pitched more than five innings and the offense posted at least one multiple-run inning in game splayed over the past three seasons.

Bet the San Francisco Giants using the money line.