John Ryan Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, January 19, 2025

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

TV: CBS and Paramount+

Radio: NFL Game Pass

8-Unit Bet on the Baltimore Ravens using the money line up to a 3-point favorite.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 33-10 SU record good for 77% and a 30-11-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:

The Bet against home dogs.

That dog is coming off a win by 21 or more points.

In the Divisional Round of the playoffs, betting a on a road team that opened as the underdog and then closes as the favorite has earned an 16-11 SU and 15-9-3 ATS record for 62% winning bets. The straight-up record is a key reason we are betting the Ravens on the money line.

Passing attack

The Ravens OL has improved their pass protection as the season progressed. The center-to-left is well above average while the right side is adequate.

The Bills play zone 81% of the time, which is one of the higher rates in the league.

Buffalo has one of the better pass rushes in the league. Gregory Rousseau, Ed Oliver and Von Miller are all capable of creating pressure, and this trio makes it difficult for opposing OLs to focus on where pressure may come from.

Lamar Jackson only had five passing TDs in the first four games. He had 34 in the next 12 contests. There were only eight games in which Jackson attempted more than 25 passes. Aside from a hot stretch in Weeks 5-10 when the QB passed for at least 280 yards in all six games, he only had one other game with 280 yards in the other 10. There were also six games Jackson passed for fewer than 210 yards. As a runner, the QB posted 40+ yards 12 times. His biggest games were: a) 122 and 87 yards in Weeks 1 and 3, and b) 65-87 yards three times in (four games) Weeks 13-17. His running has been a focal point down the stretch.

Wild Card Game: 16/21/175/2/0, 15-81

Zay Flowers had a slow start to the season, averaging 40 yards in the first four games. The receiver appeared to be primed for a huge season after posting at least 111 yards in four of five games from Weeks 5-9. It was concerning that Flowers had three games with 20 or fewer yards in Weeks 3-7. However, the upside mostly vanished, but his yardage floor stabilized from Week 10 on. During that time, Flowers had three games in the ‘30’s’, one each in the 50s, 60s and 70s with a 100-yard game in the last seven games through Week 17. Flowers plays in the slot 38% of the time.

Wild Card Game: Knee injury DNP

Christian Benford (6’1”, 205) had played at an elite level this year. Aside from facing the league’s superstar WRs, Benford should be able to hold down his side of the field.

The problem is that Rasul Douglas, who has some very good seasons in the NFL, is having one of his rougher campaigns. The 6’2”, 209 CB has been well below average in coverage, and will likely be a player opposing offenses will pick on.

In the slot, Taron Johnson (5’11”, 192) has done an adequate job, but he has not played at a level that will slow down the better slot WRs in the league.

The Bills have been middling against both TEs and receiving RBs. The success has largely been due to the discipline the Bills will use in their zone defense. Individual defenders have not been good at all. The safeties can be exploited if isolated. Matt Milano has dealt with injuries, and he hasn’t been good at all in coverage- though it’s possible the healthier he gets, the better his coverage will be.

In the playoffs, teams may choose to weaponize RBs and TEs against this defense, especially in potential weather games, and they could have better success than expected.

Rushing attack

Derrick Henry had a few ‘ordinary’ stretches this year. In Weeks 1-2, when the team was figuring out the offense, he averaged 65 yards and one TD. In Weeks 8-11, the RB had three of four games with 65-73 yards, though he scored in each game. Finally, in Weeks 13, 15 (bye in Week 14), Henry averaged 75 yards. Henry scored in all but five games- four of those came in consecutive games (Weeks 12-16). Every game in which he had 20+ carries, he had at least 106 yards. As a pass catcher, Henry had 10 catches in the first 12 games. In three of four games after Week 12, he had 2-3 catches, averaging 25 yards.

Wild Card Game: 26-186-2 TDs

The BAL OL does enough in the run game- fortunately, they have the threat of Lamar Jackson to keep defenses honest. C Tyler Linderbaum has been fantastic in the run game, but the rest of the line is average, which is all Derrick Henry needs.

Although FB/TE/OL Patrick Ricard doesn’t see the same number of snaps, if BAL wants to bludgeon their opponents on the ground, Ricard will play more than half of the snaps. He provides a major boost to the offense. Ricard played a season high 63% of the snaps against the Bills in Week 4. He could be a major factor in the run blocking this week.

Also, BAL will use multiple TEs, though Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews are mostly receivers. Charlie Kolar is back from injury and is a better blocker.

In run defense, coach Sean Mcdermott uses ‘nickel’ (5 defensive backs) as his base. This team doesn’t make a priority to stop the run. They realize the passing attack is usually where explosive plays are created. In addition, Most of their front seven is littered with below average run defenders.

Teams that can keep the scoreboard close and have a power running game can cause this defense a lot of issues.

In the playoffs, teams may choose to weaponize RBs and TEs against this defense, especially in potential weather games, and they could have better success than expected.

Bills offense vs Ravens defense

Narrative: James Cook and the running game are not at an advantage against a Ravens defense that has been strong against the run all year. Baltimore does play a lot of man coverage- that is not good for a fairly ordinary group of pass catchers, but Josh Allen will likely make running the ball a priority. Allen will need to be Superman to hang with the Ravens. That is always possible. From a probability standpoint, the team may have too many drives break down.

Passing attack

The Ravens play man coverage 34% of the time, which is one of the higher rates in the NFL.

During the first half of the season, the Ravens had one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They frequently gave up explosive plays. However, they have addressed the defense to the point where this is an excellent defense against the pass. They could have issues if facing elite WRs, but that’s typical for most teams.

Although the Ravens lack an elite pass rush, they are a veteran, well-coached team that has a feel for when they need to send pressure. When they pull that lever, the pass rush is better than the sum of its parts.

Amari Cooper was acquired by the Bills in Week 6. He never played more than 35 snaps in a game. In his first game with the team, Cooper was targeted five times on 18 snaps. He then failed to surpass three targets in six of his last seven games. The outlier was the Week 14 shootout against the Rams. In that game, the receiver posted a 6/95 (14) stat line. Good luck projecting Cooper’s role in the playoffs, but if they are in a shootout, he could see a spike week.

Wild Card Game: 2/8 (3)

Curtis Samuel had four games with at least 44 yards, though one of those was in a meaningless Week 18 game.

Wild Card Game: 3/68/TD (3)

CB Marlon Humphrey struggled earlier in the year, but he is back to playing at a high level. He can be used in the slot when needed, but he often plays outside.

CB Nate Wiggins has also improved as the season moved along- he is helped when the team plays zone. The rookie is a solid corner, neither elite nor a liability.

CB Bandon Stephens often plays in the slot. He makes too many mistakes. He has struggled often in coverage. If an opponent has an elite slot WR, the team can move Humphrey inside.

Dalton Kincaid posted a 44/448/2 line in 13 games. The tight end failed to surpass 53 yards in any game. From Week 7 on, Kincaid averaged 3.3 catches on 6.2 targets in his last seven games. He had one of the lower catch rates in the league at 58.7%.

Wild Card Game: 3/47 (3)

The secondary is galvanized by the excellent coverage of safeties, Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington.

Rushing attack

The linebackers are a liability in coverage and teams with good receiving RBs can have success picking on them. Roquan Smith doesn’t seem to have the explosiveness he has in years past.

This unit is all about teamwork. NT Travis Jones and ILB Roquan Smith are very good run stoppers. However, the entire front plays well together, and they are often able to slow most opposing rushing attacks without loading the box. The liabilities on this unit would be the defensive ends, but the fact they play a 3-4 allows the OLBs to help on the edges.

Props

Derrick Henry alt over 110 rushing yards

Lamar Jackson over 52.5 rushing yards

Josh Allen alt 40+ rushing yards

Khalil Shakir alt 4+ receptions

NFL Divisional Round Preview: LA Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagle
8-Unit Bet on the Eagles priced as 6.5-point favorites. (Please read the in-game betting, which I highly recommend given the recent betting frenzy on the Eagles)

Consider betting 5-Units maximum amount on the Over at 37.5 or fewer points during the first half of action only. The Eagles have been slow starters in nearly every game this season. Getting out to a solid mistake-free start is preferred over taking any chances at committing turnovers.

The line has moved to 7 points at the Circa and there is a huge wave of bets being placed and nearly all are on the Eagles. This line is likely to move to 7.5 and even higher.

So, bet the Eagles with 50% of your 8-Unit betting amount. If the Rams score the first TD of the game, then bet the Eagles in-game for another 25% amount with a 3-0 or 10-0 or 10-3 or 10-6 or even 13-6 Rams lead. These bets are only valid during the first half of action.Then if the Eagles get to a money line price of –130 or cheaper, add the remaining 25% amount to complete the full 8-unit amount.

Date: Sunday, January 21, 2025
Time: 3:00 PM ET (12:00 PM PT)
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
TV Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, Universo

Team Records

Philadelphia Eagles: 14-3 (Regular Season), 1-0 (Playoffs)

Los Angeles Rams: 10-7 (Regular Season), 1-0 (Playoffs)

Against-the-Spread Records

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5-1 ATS (Against the Spread)

Los Angeles Rams: 8-9 ATS

Preview

The Philadelphia Eagles are hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round. The Eagles are coming off a dominant 22-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round, while the Rams secured a 27-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.

In their previous meeting during the regular season, the Eagles triumphed over the Rams 37-20, thanks to a historic performance by running back Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams will be looking to avenge that loss and advance to the NFC Championship game.

The Eagles got a huge gift last night when the Commanders got a monster upset win over the top-seed Detroit Lions. Now, with a win the Eagles will host the NFC Championship game and face their divisional rival for the third time this season. It may not be that huge of gift given how well the Commanders and their super-star rookie QB Jayden Daniels has played down the stretch, but they will not have to travel and win on the road.

Key Matchups to Watch

Eagles' Offense vs. Rams' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, will be a significant test for the Rams' defense, which tied an NFL playoff record with nine sacks in their last game.

Rams' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Rams' offense, featuring quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, will need to overcome the Eagles' strong defensive front.

How to Watch

You can watch the game on NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, and Universo. If you prefer streaming, you can use services like FuboTV2.

Betting and Fan-Based Sentiment

Positive Sentiment: Most of the sentiment was positive, celebrating Saquon Barkley's performance and the Eagles' victory. This is reflected in reports of Barkley setting a franchise record, the Eagles' winning streak, and the overall dominance in the game.

Negative Sentiment: There was some negative sentiment, primarily due to the injury announcements, which are meaningful setbacks for the team. However, this was more of a specific concern rather than a general negative sentiment about the game's outcome.

Neutral Sentiment: Very little neutral sentiment was explicitly discussed in the sources, but the general reporting on statistics, scores, and play-by-play could be considered neutral in nature.

Positive: Approximately 70%

Negative: Approximately 30%

Neutral: Approximately 5%

Although 70% is on the edge of being too many fans and bettors favoring the Eagles, the betting markets are in a 55 to 60% ticket number and handle.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 104-40-1 SU and 81-59-5 ATS result for 58% winning bets since 1996. The requirements are:

Bet on any favorite including pick-em.

The temperature at game time is lower than 30 degrees (week 11 on out to the end of the season).

The favorite averages more rushing yards than the foe.

If the wind ranges between 5 and 20 MPH, these favorites playing in the Divisional Round have gone 8-1 SU and 7-3 ATS for 70% winning bets.

Weather Update: The weather conditions are forecast to be steady snow and at time moderate to heavy snowfall rates. The field is heated below ground to prevent the field in any frigid environment to not freeze and become rock hard. However, if the snow melts on the field initially, the grass turf will become slippery. Both teams should have multiple type of cleats with different length spikes to overcome the potential for a significant deterioration in the field conditions. I do not see any advantage for either team if the field conditions deteriorate in the second half of the game. The advantages will be for the offensive units of both teams because they know what block, what route, what run or pass play has been called and the defenses do not. The defenses will become more reactive and if anything, scoring may increase. So, if the first quarter is 3-0 or even scoreless, taking a pizza money-sized bet and wagering the OVER in-game just may be a profitable one.

Passing attack

The Eagles use 74% zone, 26% man coverage

Vic Fangio coaches this unit, and aside from the Washington game, when they fell apart, this unit limits explosive plays, and is a nightmare for offenses on obvious passing downs.

The Eagles have one of the better pass rushes in the league. DEs Jalen Carter and Milton Williams have been elite. OLBs Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith have been above average. Even on the inside LB Dean has been excellent- Note: Dean suffered a season-ending injury in the Wild-Card game.

The Eagles have become one of the top pass defenses in the league. There is not a weak spot in the secondary.

Puka Nacua has been incredible since returning from injury in Week 8. He has seven games (out of 10) with at least 97 yards. In one of those games, he played 26 snaps. In the other two games he had exactly 56 yards. Oddly, Matthew Stafford completed 31 passes over the last two games, and Nacua caught 18 of those passes. Nacua is in the slot 30% of the time.

Wild Card Game: 5/44 (9)

Cooper Kupp had a terrible end to the season, posting less than 30 yards in four of his last five games. In those four games, he averaged less than four targets. Still, Kupp is capable of big games. In Week 14, he had a 5/92/TD line, and Kupp had 80+ yards in four of six games between Weeks 9-14. Kupp is in the slot 67% of the time.

Wild Card Game: 1/29 (1)

Quinyon Mitchell has had some rookie ups and downs, but overall, he has been above average in coverage.

Darius Slay hasn’t played at the level he has at earlier points in his career, but he has also been a bit above average.

Rookie slot CB Cooper DeJean has been amazing. He has played at a very high level, and he also is an excellent tackler.

Tyler Higbee returned from an ACL injury in Week 16. His snaps went from 14-17-27. His targets went from 2-3-7. Higbee’s catches went from 1-2-5. The tight end scored in two of three games. Still, his 5/46/TD line came in Week 18 when the backups played. NOTE: Higbee suffered a chest injury and missed the last three quarters of the Wild Card game.

Wild Card Game: 5/58 (5) Left in first half with a chest injury

The safety duo of Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson have both been excellent in coverage. They hold up very well against opposing tight ends.

Kyren Williams was not the same runner who rushed for 5.0 yards per carry. He was a volume hog with 316 carries and 40 targets, but Williams rushed for just 4.1 yards per carry. The runner only had a 17th percentile broken tackle rate, though he was in the 61st percentile in yards after contact. Williams saw his heaviest workloads down the stretch. In Weeks 14-16, he averaged 27 carries before easing back in Week 17. Before Week 17, he rushed for at least 62 yards in 13 straight games, though he only reached 100 yards four times (102, 104, 108, 122). As a receiver, Williams was at 5.4 yards per catch and went over 20 yards once since Week 4.

Wild Card Game: 16-76, 3/16/TD (3)

The Eagles have a top-5 run defense. The strength is the LBs. Dean (injured/out), Sweat and Smith have all been very good at plugging rushing lanes. Meanwhile Baun can get to the edges, but he has been an overall average run defender. Although the three DL are great as pass rushers, all are below average against the run. In other words, teams can get past the first level on some runs, but good luck getting deep into the second level. And on running downs, when they can creep up, they are very hard to run on.

LB Zack Baun has been one of the best coverage linebackers in the league.

Eagles offense

The pass protection from both OTs is elite. Also, LG Landon Dickerson is also one of the better pass protectors in the league at his position. RG Mekhi Becton is adequate, but he is massive, and defenders can’t easily get around him in the middle of the line. Center Can Jurgens is the only player on this line who’s below average.

The Rams play zone at a rate higher than the league average. 77% zone, 23% man

If the Rams’ pass rush is unable to make a big impact, the coverage in the secondary is below average.

Jalen Hurts missed the last two games of the year with a concussion. Although he passed for 290 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 16, Hurts had thrown for fewer than 180 yards in the previous four games. On the season, he failed to reach 184 yards six times. On only four occasions did the QB pass for at least 240 yards, and two of those games were in Weeks 1 and 3. As a runner, Hurts rushed for over 60 yards twice (85, 67). From Week 8 on, his lowest rushing total was 29 yards. As always, Hurts was a primary goal-line option for the Eagles, and he rushed for 14 TDs. Conversely, Hurts only threw 18 TD passes.

Wild Card Game: 13/21/131/2/0, 6-36

A.J. Brown was a target hog during his first two years with the Eagles. This year, he averaged 7.5 targets per game. That explains why Brown did not reach 120 yards or more than one TD in any game all season. In terms of floor, the star had at least 65 yards 10 times in 13 games. Unless the Eagles go back to the pass-heavy plan they used in Week 15 against Pittsburgh, Brown may not have the great numbers we expect from him.

Wild Card Game: 1/10 (3)

DeVonta Smith had one game with more than 87 yards (11/109/TD in Week 15) with Jalen Hurts at QB. Aside from the big game in Week 15, Smith failed to surpass eight targets in any game between Weeks 6-17. Also, from Week 6 on, the veteran had one game with more than six targets and four games with more than four targets. Smith only had eight games with 60+ yards. Smith is in the slot 51% of the time, but when Brown is healthy, that rate can rise.

Wild Card Game: 4/55 (4)

Darious Williams is technically the top CB, but he is small, and he has struggled in coverage this year.

The other outside CB Ahkello Witherspoon, who has been adequate, but far from solid at CB. (He was injured in the Wild Card game)

Quentin Lake has been a weakness in the slot.

Ground Game

Saquon Barkley had a magical season with 2,005 rushing yards, 15 total TDs and 278 receiving yards. Oddly, Barkley only had a 33rd percentile broken tackle rate, and although he was in the 69th percentile in yards after contact, that fails to take into account the many long runs he had while never being contacted. He had at least 95 rushing yards in all but four games (10-84, 18-47, 14-66, 19-65), but three of those came against solid run defenses. Although Barkley had three games with 40-52 receiving yards in Weeks 9-12, he had a total of six catches and 21 yards over the last five games.

Wild Card Game: 25-119, 2/4 (2)

Kenneth Gainwell handled 3-7 rushing attempts in almost every game between Weeks 6-17. Still, the veteran posted at least 19 yards eight times in the 12 games after the Week 6 bye. As a pass catcher, Gainwell had one game (3/40 in Week 15) with more than 12 yards.

Wild Card Game: 3-14

The Rams are a below average run defense. Aside from OLB Jared Verse, who has been excellent against the run, all of the remaining DL/LBs are not strong run defenders. There is no one player who is a complete disaster against the run, but aside from Verse, nobody is a strength.

The LBs (Omar Speights and Christian Rozeboom) are not good in coverage- opposing RBs can have a lot of success against them.

Props

Saquon Barkley over 111.5 rushing yards.
DeVonta Smith over reception total (alt 4+ receptions- same game parlay)
Gainwell over 10.5 rushing yards – some books have 11.5 and is good to bet.

Eagles alt line -2.5 (same game parlay)

Puka Nacua alt receptions 7+ (same game parlay)

Jalen Hurts alt rushing yards 25+ (same game parlay)

Spurs vs Heat
8-Unit bet on the Spurs priced as 3.5-point underdogs.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced an exception record going 13-26 SU and 27-11-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are:

Bet on road teams priced between a 7 and 14-point underdog.

They lost the previous matchup by double-digits.

They are coming off a home loss of 20 or more points.

Bulls vs Blazers
8-Unit bet on the Bulls priced as 6-point favorites.

The following NBA Basketball betting algorithm I s a variation of the first one and has produced a 58-16 SU record and a 50-22-2 ATS mark good for 69.4%% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are:

Bet on favorites in the second half of the season.

The favorite has won 40 to 49% of their games.

The favorite has seen their last three games play Under the total by 30 or more points.

76ers vs Bucks
8-Unit bet on the 76ers priced as a 10.5-point underdog.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 11-37 SU (23%) and 42-6 ATS record good for 88% winning bets since 1995. The requirements are:

Bet on road underdogs priced between 9.5 and 16.5 points.

That road underdog has not covered the spread in each of their previous three games.

The favorite is coming off an ATS win as a three or fewer-point favorite.

Both teams are playing on no more than one day of rest.

Our dog has won between 20 and 40% of their games on the season.

If our team is playing on back-to-back nights and the foe is playing on no more than one day or rest, has produced a 41-16-1 ATS record good for 71% winning bets.

The following NBA situational betting algorithm has gone 49-42 SU and 54-37 ATS for 40% winning bets since 2018. The requirements need for a qualified betting opportunity are:

Fade the Bucks has a home favorite.

Their superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a double-double.

Antetokounmpo scored 34 or more points and had 15 or more rebounds in that double-double.

If the Bucks are priced as 6 to 13.5-point favorite in this situation, they have gone an abysmal 12-8 SU and 5-15 ATS for 25%.

Nuggets vs Magic
8-Unit best bet on the Nuggets priced as 6-point favorites.

The following NBA Basketball betting algorithm has produced a 25-7 SU record and a 23-9 ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are:

Bet on road teams from the Western Conference taking on an Eastern Conference foe.

That road team is priced between a 3.5- and 9.5-point favorite.

That road team is avenging a same-season loss.

That road team has posted a 60% or better effective field goal percentage on the season.

Lakers vs Clippers
8-Unit bet UNDER the posted total currently priced at 215 points.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 29-15 UNDER record good for 66% winning bets over the past 8 seasons back to the 2017 season, which marked the start to the meteoric rise in scoring in the NBA. The requirements are:

Bet the Under in a game with a total of 200 or more points.

One of the teams allowed 90 or fewer points in their previous game.

The opponent is coming off a close win by three or fewer points.

If the total is priced between 210 and 220 points, the UNDER has gone n15-7 for 69% winning bets.