Joey Tron Handicapper Reviews & Picks

I am playing the UNDER here between the Seahawks and the 49ers in this NFC West showdown. As strong as these two teams' offenses are, it is going to take a lot to move the ball downfield consistently on either defense. Both teams sit Top 5 in points allowed and Top 6 total yards per game showing that neither defense is giving up “explosive plays”. Seattle’s defense is on another level sitting Top 2 in Success % and Total EPA, while holding teams to just 28% on 3rd down. The 49ers defense is not at that caliber; however, they are holding teams to sub 100 RYPG and Sam Darnold has not looked too hot with 3 interceptions the last 3 games. Neither team wants this to be a shootout and a closer, low scoring game, significantly helps the home team. SF is 7-3 to the under following a home win and SEA is 11-8 to the under in close spread games where the line is +3 to -3. Play the UNDER here. –Joey Tron

I am taking the points with the Ravens here against the Falcons. It’s that time of the year where Lamar Jackson unfortunately suffers some type of injury and Tyler Huntley is called to step in. This is happening once again this season, except he has Derrick Henry in GREAT form. He has 4 TD’s across the L3 games and will be going toe to toe with Bijan Robinson, who is coming off a 2 TD night against the Saints and extra rest. The only difference is the Ravens defense IS NOT the Saints defense. Baltimore is Top 15 in EPA/rush and Top 10 in overall EPA/play. Atlanta may have gotten comfortable with weaker defenses but are in for a whole new game with the Ravens line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. Atlanta is 30th in passing yards allowed and Huntley already owns a win against the Falcons, winning a low scoring game willing in for Lamar Jackson. BAL is 29-20 ATS on the road after a win by 6 or less points and ATL is 9-29 ATS at home off a win by 14+ points. Take the points with the Ravens here. –Joey Tron

I am laying the small spread with the Bears here on the road against Green Bay. The Bears will be without Caleb Williams again this week, however that should not be a problem here. The Bears own the BEST rush offense in the NFL with just under 200 RYPG and have found success with their defense giving them short fields to work with. As I just mentioned, the Bears defense has been sensational allowing -0.12 EPA per play and have the 2nd best 3rd down defense, with foes converting just 23%. The Packers offense has been abysmal owning a -32 Point Differential and have failed to score over 20 points in each of their last 3 games. The Bears defense will not make it easy on Green Bay and will be playing even stronger since the passing of legendary coach Mike Ditka. CHI is 6-2 ATS on the road after playing at home and GB is 7-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Lay it with the Bears here. –Joey Tron

I am taking the points with the Titans here against the Texans. This might be an ugly game however there's no reason any winless team, against a division foe, on the road, should be laying a touchdown. The Titans defense is doing much better since the first 2 games of the season and have held teams to an average of 26% on 3rd down the last 2 games. Not only that, Tennessee is allowing -0.11 EPA/rush and are Top 10 in points allowed. The Texans defense is ranked 27th with just under 28 PPG allowed and they are dreadful in the secondary, averaging 0.09 EPA/pass. Over the last 3 weeks Cam Ward has improved significantly and is now up against the weakest defense he’s seen this season. The backdoor should be open and I am counting on my Titans to come through here. TEN is 7-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and HOU is 11-15 ATS on the road after a loss by 6 or less points. Take the points with the Titans here. –Joey Tron