Jack Jones Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Cleveland Cavaliers -8

The spot really favors the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. While both the Cavaliers and Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, the Cavs got to rest their starters late in the 4th quarter last night, while the Knicks had to go to OT to beat the Chicago Bulls.

Achiuwa played 46 minutes, Bridges 43, Towns 42, McBride 42 and Bruson 38 last night. Josh Hart is out and OG Anunoby is questionable after sitting out last night. The Knicks don't have much depth, so they haven't handled these back-to-back situations very well this season, especially with the big minutes their starters play. They have covered just 25% of the time on the 2nd of a back-to-back this season.

The Cavaliers made easy work of the Nets 110-97 last night. They led by as many as 20 in the 4th quarter and were able to pull their starters. Not one starter played more than 30 minutes for the Cavaliers last night. Cleveland also has great depth with Hunter, Merrill, Jerome and Okoro coming off the bench.

Cleveland won the first and only meeting this season 110-104 on the road in New York. The Cavaliers are 25-4 SU & 19-10 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

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15* Michigan State/Michigan FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 151

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off tonight in this rivalry between Michigan State and Michigan. I expect it to be a classic defensive battle with high intensity, and the books have set this total way too high.

The Wolverines rank 22nd in adjusted defense, 27th in effective FG percentage defense and 34th in 2-point percentage defense. The 2-point percentage defense is key because the Spartans are a terrible 3-point shooting team and look to attack the rim constantly. Things won't come as easy for the Spartans inside as they did against Purdue last time out, which is weak inside.

Michigan State ranks 141st in effective FG percentage offense and 354th in 3-point percentage at 29.1%. But the Spartans hang their hat on the other end, ranking 13th in adjusted defense, 20th in effective FG percentage defense and 10th in 3-point percentage allowed at 29.2%. That's important because Michigan attempts 43.5% of their shots from 3-point range.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 143 or fewer combined points in three of those four meetings. Michigan State and its opponents have combined for 144 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall. Michigan and its opponents have combined for 148 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six of its last nine games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

I love the spot for the Memphis Grizzlies. They were upset by the Pacers last night in a 127-113 road loss. The blowout nature of the loss allowed their starters to rest in the 4th quarter as only one starter played more than 30 minutes last night.

Now the Grizzlies come back highly motivated for a victory as they don't want to drop two in a row out of the break. The Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these back-to-back situations better than most. The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS on the 2nd of a back-to-back this season.

The Orlando Magic got revenge on the Hawks with a 114-108 road win last night. They are satisfied and won't be nearly as hungry tonight. The Magic also lack depth relying heavily on Franz Wagner and Paulo Banchero to do the bulk of their scoring. Four starters played at least 32 minutes for Orlando last night including 37 from Banchero and 33 from Wagner.

The Magic are 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS on the 2nd of a back-to-back this season. The Grizzlies are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Magic. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Mavs OVER 235

The Dallas Mavericks have to go small ball right now due to injuries to their three tallest players in Davis, Gafford and Lively. Small ball makes them more of an OVER team, and that has played out in recent games.

The OVER is 10-3 in Mavericks last 13 games overall with 229 or more combined points in 10 of those 13 games. One of those games was a 137-136 win at New Orleans for 273 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now the Mavericks play the Pelicans again out of the All-Star Break and it should be another high-scoring affair. The OVER is 10-4 in Pelicans last 14 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 11 of those 14 games. That includes 230 or more combined points in eight straight and 234 or more in seven of those.

The Pelicans rank 3rd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating over the last 14 games. They profile as a dead nuts OVER team. They still have plenty of offensive firepower with McCollum, Williamson and Murphy, but they have literally quit playing defense. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. That includes three outright upset victories, while also taking the Cavaliers and Pacers to the wire.

The spot really favors the Wizards tonight. They will be playing their first game out of the break so will be fresh and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 116-110 home win over the Clippers last night.

Making matters worse for the Bucks is that Damian Lillard (25.5 PPG, 7.4 APG) has been ruled out, while Bobby Portis (13.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG) has been suspended 25 games. Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.4 PPG, 12.2 RPG) is expected to play but he is on a minutes restriction as he makes his way back from injury. He played just 23 minutes last night.

This is also the Kris Middleton revenge game. He is expected to make his debut for the Wizards after the Bucks traded him for Kyle Kuzma. I think the Wizards will rally around Middleton and try and get him some revenge here. Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* Knicks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 241.5

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. I think both teams won't be looking to push the tempo as much on tired legs, especially the Knicks, who went to OT with the Bulls last night.

The Knicks remain without Josh Hart again tonight and OG Anunoby is questionable. They are short-handed and don't have a deep bench. Their replacements are Precious Achiuwa and Miles McBride, which is a big downgrade offensively.

The Knicks and Bulls were tied 104-104 at the end of regulation last night for just 208 combined points. The Cavaliers beat the Nets 110-97 for just 207 combined points. Both teams are a little rusty coming out of the break and that will continue tonight.

Cleveland beat New York 110-104 for just 214 combined points in their first meeting this season. That total was set at 222. So this total has been adjusted up 19.5 points from that first meeting. The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings with 214 or fewer combined points in all nine. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +15.5

The Utah Jazz are a tough out when they are healthy, and they are completely healthy right now with the exception of Collin Sexton. But they are very deep at the guard position to make up for his absence. Markkanen (19.6 PPG), Collins (18.1 PPG), Clarkson (17.0 PPG) and George (16.4 PPG) are all healthy right now.

We saw what the Jazz were capable of when having all these guys available down the stretch. They upset the Lakers 131-119 as 9.5-point dogs two games prior to the break and took the Clippers to the wire in a 120-116 loss as 10-point dogs in their final game before the break the very next night.

Now I think the Jazz give the Thunder a run for their money tonight. The Thunder may be a little relaxed coming out of the break with a commanding 8-game lead for 1st place in the West. I don't think they'll be playing with a huge sense of urgency.

You're paying a tax to back the Thunder now after opening 44-11 SU & 34-17-4 ATS thus far this season. Utah beat OKC outright in two of their last four home meetings and lost by just 5 in another. The Thunder should not be 15.5-point road favorites here. Bet the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Jazz OVER 234.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team especially when they are as healthy as they are right now. The Jazz are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 236 or more combined points in all six games. They rank 10th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

The Jazz are a pretty efficient offensive team when they are as healthy as they are right now. They have scored at least 110 points in eight consecutive games and 14 of their last 16 games overall. Markkanen (19.6 PPG), Collins (18.1 PPG), Clarkson (17.0 PPG) and George (16.4 PPG) are all healthy right now.

The OVER is 12-6-1 in Thunder last 19 games overall. They also profile as an OVER team ranking 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating. They come out of the All-Star Break very healthy with their full compliment of weapons as one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Thunder with 237 or more combined points in five of those six meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.