Jack Jones Handicapper Reviews & Picks

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Knicks/Bucks UNDER 218

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks are both dealing with injuries at the PG position. Without their lead PG's, these offenses will be out of sync, and it will lead to longer possessions and poorer shot selection moving forward.

The Knicks are without their top three PG's in Brunson (26.3 PPG, 7.4 APG), McBride (9.4 PPG, 2.9 APG) and Payne (7.0 PPG, 2.7 APG). The Bucks are without Damian Lillard (24.9 PPG, 5.9 APG). Giannis (30.2 PPG) is questionable for the Bucks tonight as well.

The Knicks are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 road games and would be 9-1 if not for OT. In fact, three of those 10 games went to OT and two of them still stayed under the total. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

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15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Texas Rangers ML +101

I like the value we are getting on the Texas Rangers as home underdogs to the Boston Red Sox tonight. The Rangers will be motivated to get that first victory after losing Game 1 to the Red Sox last night.

Tanner Houck is getting way too much respect for the Red Sox tonight. He had a terrible spring with a 11.20 ERA and 2.49 WHIP while allowing 17 earned runs and 34 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.

Jack Leiter earned the No. 2 spot in the Texas rotation with a fantastic spring. He posted a 3.48 ERA while allowing just 8 earned runs and one homer in 20 2/3 innings with 21 K's in spring training.

I also like this Texas lineup much more than this Boston lineup this season. I think the addition of Alex Bregman for the Red Sox wasn't a good one as he is past his prime and on the decline. I love this young Texas lineup as it's one of the deepest lineups in the league led by Semien, Seager, Langford, Garcia, Jung, Burger and Pederson. Bet the Rangers Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The Baltimore Orioles blasted the Toronto Blue Jays 12-2 yesterday for 14 combined runs. The Orioles boast one of the best lineups in baseball, and there's a lot to like about this Toronto lineup as well with Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Santander and Springer leading the way.

Two starters that are past their prime are starting in the No. 2 spots for these respective teams today. Both Charlie Morton and Kevin Gausman are no longer top-end starters, but they are forced to be for these teams.

Morton is 41 years old now and went 8-10 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP for the Braves last season. Gausman is 34 years old and went 14-11 with a 3.83 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. I'll trust both of these young, upstart offenses to get the better of these veteran pitchers and suspect bullpens tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 239.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank 6th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games overall with 244 or more combined points four times. The OVER is 2-0 in Jazz last two games including 243 combined points with Memphis. The Jazz and Nuggets combined for 253 points in their most recent meeting this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -14.5

The Golden State Warriors are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall and motivated to avoid the play-in in the West. They are also motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season at Miami. They will be fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. I expect a big effort from them tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans are tanking right now. They have recent losses to the Rockets by 29, the Magic by 20, the Pistons by 46 and the Timberwolves by 41. And now they have decided to rest McCollum and Williamson, which means they will be without six of their top seven scorers tonight. What a mess. Bet the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -5.5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night. That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are also pretty healthy right now with Quickley, Poeltl and Barnes all expected to suit up.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly in tank mode. They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall including four games where they weren't even competitive losing by 35 to the Clippers, 32 to the Hawks, 35 to the Thunder and 17 to the Heat. They have elected to rest their best player in La'Melo Ball tonight as well. Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -11.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in seven of their last eight games. The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league. And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers have surrounded that loss to the Thunder with six blowout wins in their last seven games. They beat the Knicks by 13, Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, while also crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home. The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 4rd game in 9 days and just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Brooklyn Nets look to have thrown in the towel and are in full blown tank mode. They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming in. The last two losses were very concerning and showed their lack of effort, losing by 19 at home to the Mavericks as 3-point dogs and then by 30 at home to the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites. It won't go any better for them tonight against a surging, motivated Los Angeles team. Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4

Tennessee lost both meetings to Kentucky during the regular season. The ultimate revenge would be to knock out the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect the Vols to get their revenge in blowout fashion today.

The shooting in the first two meetings was very fluky and heavily in Kentucky's favor. While Tennessee went 14-of-63 (22.2%) from 3-point range in the two meetings, Kentucky remarkably went 24-of-48 (50%) from 3-point range. That was the difference. Jax Robinson had 17 points on 4-of-9 from 3 in one of the meetings, and the Wildcats are now without Robinson and much less potent offensively.

Let's also look at this from a line value perspective. Tennessee was a 10.5-point favorite at home and a 4-point favorite on the road in the first two meetings. Now the Vols are a 4-point favorite on a neutral, which is too big of an adjustment in Kentucky's favor. The value is clearly on the Vols tonight. Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* CBB Friday Sweet 16 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/Auburn OVER 151

Michigan really profiles as an OVER team. The Wolverines rank 58th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average length of offensive possession. They also rank 324th in turnover rate, committing turnovers on 20% of their possessions to create easy scoring opportunities for their opponents.

Auburn also likes to play with pace ranking 146th in adjusted tempo and 132nd in average length of offensive possession. The Tigers do everything under control and get good looks each time down the court, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense.

Michigan went for 170 combined points with Texas A&M last game despite neither team shooting well from the floor, especially the Aggies who shot 38% from the floor and 26% from 3. Auburn went for 152 combined points with Creighton against a Bluejays team that likes to play at a much slower tempo than Michigan does.

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in its last 16 games with 152 or more combined points in 11 of those 16 games. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -7.5

Michigan is the most overrated team left in the tournament. The Wolverines have a negative point differential despite winning 13 of their last 17 games. They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just two games by more than 6 points since January 12th.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego in the Round of 64. They had the officials on their side when UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes thanks to a couple questionable calls. Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

Michigan was then able to overcome a double-digit deficit in the 2H to beat Texas A&M in the Round of 32. The Aggies are a poor shooting team and it came back to bite them hitting just 38% from the field and 26% from 3-point range against the Wolverines.

Now the Wolverines face a complete team in Auburn, and this is where their luck runs out. The Tigers rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense. They take care of the ball ranking 5th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 13% of possessions. That's going to be the difference in this game.

Michigan ranks 324th in turnover percentage on offense turning it over on nearly 20% of possessions. Auburn will capitalize on those opportunities, and I don't think Michigan has what it takes to keep up in what I expect to be a shootout. This will also feel like a home game for the Tigers being played in Atlanta less than two hours from campus. Bet Auburn Friday.