At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (109) and the Denver Broncos (110). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 32-29 upset loss at home against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-17 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After averaging 351.4 total Yards-Per-Game in the regular season last season, the Seahawks only generated 251 yards in their loss to the 49ers. There are a few reasons why Seattle’s offense has taken a step back. Losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to Las Vegas to become the Raiders' head coach has played a role. Head coach Mike Macdonald tapped San Francisco run game coordinator Brian Fleury as the new offensive coordinator — but he is a rookie play-caller. The offensive line has not played as well. After ranking 19th in Adjusted Line Yards last season, they have dropped to 21st in that metric this season. Even worse, the +0.91 Rushing Yards Before Contact Rate is last in the league. This is an area where they really miss Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Walker offered the offensive explosive plays, but the Super Bowl MVP moved on to Kansas City in free agency, where he is thriving. Charbonnet can grind out tough yards after contact, but he is still recovering from his torn ACL that he suffered in the playoffs last year. The team drafted Jadarian Price in the first round out of Notre Dame — but he is injured as well after an up-and-down start to the season. That leaves the primary rushing duties to Emmanuel Wilson, who is only generating 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Against the Niners last week, he ran the ball 20 times for only 61 yards. Not being able to run the ball well is taking the bite out of the Seahawks’ play-action passing game. The offense still runs through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is simply on another level in getting open — but he injured his ankle last week. He will play tonight and is officially off the injury report, but it is hard to think he will be 100% on a short week — so he may not have all of his Superman powers tonight. Then that leads the conversation to quarterback Sam Darnold, who has taken a step back this season. He is completing only 64.3% of his passes with a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has seven touchdown passes and five interceptions in four games. His Quarterback Rating is 90.3. Last season, Darnold completed 67.7% of his passes in the regular season with an 8.5 YPA and 25 touchdown passes. His 14 interceptions last season were an issue that continues this year — but his QBR of 99.1 was much better. But the dirty little secret about Seattle last season was that they got exposed in Week 11 in their initial showdown against the Rams, as they did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations about the heavy personnel and multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they ranked 18th in that metric for the rest of the regular season. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he dropped to 18th for the rest of the regular season. Darnold’s struggles against pressure were also a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket in the regular season, he threw for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure in the regular season, he had only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. Darnold was responsible for 20 turnovers via 14 interceptions and six lost fumbles last season — but he did play mistake-free football against the Rams and Patriots en route to the Super Bowl title. It does not have to be all-or-nothing regarding Darnold, as our 24/7 Hot Take Sports Industrial Complex suggests. If you give Darnold time, he has more than enough talent to torch opposing defenses. But he can get a bit frenetic if pressured in the pocket. He can force things and try to do too much. It happens to most quarterbacks. It’s not a death sentence — and I have criticized Stafford over his mistakes over the years. In the Super Bowl win, Darnold completed only 19 of 38 passes for 200 yards — but he took only one sack and did not commit a turnover. Quarterbacks on losing teams in the Super Bowl would get ripped for that stat line — all I am saying is let’s not anoint him, despite leading his team to victory. And his problems when pressured have continued this season, stemming from the subpar play of his offensive line. The Seahawks rank 21st in Pressure Rate Allowed and 23rd in Sack Rate Allowed. No wonder their offense ranks 26th in Expected Points Added per Play — and their rushing attack ranks 30th in EPA per Rush Attempt. Fortunately for Macdonald and the Seattle faithful, the other side of the ball remains elite. The Seahawks rank second in the NFL in Opponent EPA per Play and second in pressure rate. They did allow the 49ers to score 32 points last week — but one of the touchdowns they surrendered was from an offensive fumble in the end zone that the Niners recovered. They held San Francisco to just 269 yards. The secret sauce to Macdonald’s defense comes from “amoeba” players like Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori who have the flexibility to thrive in pass coverage or move into the box to stop the run. This versatility allowed the Seattle defense to play in a 4-2-5 nickel formation as their base defense 93% of the time last season. Macdonald’s fundamental philosophy is to have his unit make formation adjustments post-snap. Having players who can operate effectively at multiple positions is essential. Will linebacker Drake Thomas is questionable to play tonight — but defensive tackle Leonard Williams looks ready to go tonight after being listed as questionable earlier in the week. In the three previous games when the Seahawks gave up 30 or more points, they have then held those next three opponents to 15 PPG. Seattle has played 5 straight Unders after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. They have played 7 straight Unders after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. For Denver, head coach Sean Payton taking back the play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb did not help much as the Broncos only gained 224 yards in their victory against the Chargers. Payton did dial up more rushing plays when compared to league expectations in possible passing situations — so that may signal an approach to ask less of quarterback Bo Nix. The third-year starter completed 16 of 27 passes for only 123 yards. He is another quarterback who has taken a step back. He is completing only 59.9% of his passes and averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. His QBR is 80.8. He entered this season with a career 64.8% completion percentage — and he posted an 87.8 QBR last year. His 6.0 average depth of target is a career-low, as is the 8% of his passes of at least 20 air yards this season. The free agent signing of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has not been successful in opening the vertical passing game — and I offer condolences to anyone who drafted Courtland Sutton on their fantasy teams. Don’t underestimate how the offense has been hurt by Nix not moving the ball with his legs. He has only 18 rushing attempts in five games for 35 yards and a mere 1.9 YPC mark. If the quarterback is not presenting himself as a threat to seize first downs by running the football, then that allows another defensive player to drop back into pass coverage. This became the problem for Tua Tagovailoa, who became reluctant to run the ball (understandably) — and perhaps Nix has become gun-shy after his season-ending ankle injury last season? In my deep-dive on Denver in the offseason, I was worried about Nix this year. He ranked just 26th in the league in Passer Rating and 25th in Passing Success Rate. He also ranked just 17th in Expected Points Added per dropback. He struggles to execute passing plays in play action. Frankly, I was really encouraged about Payton’s decision in the offseason to give up play-calling (I think too many head coaches sacrifice game management for calling plays for selfish reasons). I thought the change could help Nix. One of the reasons for the change at the time was that Payton admitted that he was taking too long to get the play into Nix. Webb’s directive was to get the play into Nix faster. Perhaps the reason why Nix performed better in clutch situations last season was that Payton did not have the time to recite the playbook bible as if he was still communicating with Drew Brees in the final seasons of his Hall of Fame career. The Denver defense remains very good — their unit ranks ninth in Opponent EPA per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. It is a failing of the imagination of the decision-makers in the league that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has not been given a second chance as a head coach (well, I guess there is always another Kubiak, LaFleur, or someone else who sat at Sean McVay’s lunch table once). Their 68 sacks broke a franchise record, with defensive end Zach Allen finally being named an All-Pro. He entered the year leading the NFL in hits on the quarterback the last three seasons. Nine starters are back from that unit — and their 33.5% Pressure Rate so far this year ranks ninth in the league. That probably means trouble for Darnold. I speculated in the offseason that they may not have reached their ceiling yet since they only forced 14 turnovers last season, one shy of being the fewest in franchise history. The Regression Gods got the message in the offseason as they have already generated 10 takeaways this season. Denver is dealing with significant injuries in their secondary. All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga are out — and cornerback Riley Moss is questionable. Joseph had to switch from his preferred man schemes to a zone pass defense last week given those absences — but the Chargers only gained 237 yards of offense. The Broncos have played 21 of their last 29 games in prime-time Under the Total. Furthermore, in Payton’s 15 games in his head coaching career leading his team for a Thursday game, the Under is 12-2-1, with the final score finishing Under the Total by -9.2 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the final score finished Under the Total by -5.1 PPG. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (109) and the Denver Broncos (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
