At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (301) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (302). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-2) followed up their seven-point loss at Pittsburgh to kick off the season with a 34-3 loss at home against Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (1-1) rebounded from their fourth quarter collapse against Minnesota to begin the season with a 20-17 win in overtime on the road in New York against the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: As usual for these Thursday night games played on a short week, final decisions should not be made until assessing the latest injury report. Atlanta’s offensive line situation looked dire at the beginning of the week — but things are looking up today. The Packers situation is a mess. Wide receiver Jayden Reed is out with a neck injury. Starting left guard Aaron Banks is out with a toe. Starting right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (formerly Zach Tom before he changed his last name this fall to honor his Nigerian heritage) is already out for the season with a knee. Starting defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and starting inside linebacker Edgerrin Cooper are questionable with injuries — and players with that designation tend not to play more often for these games on a short week as opposed to normal rest. Linebacker Micah Parsons remains out as he recovers from the torn ACL he suffered in Week 13 last season. To compound matters for Green Bay, they are coming off playing in overtime on Sunday. Not only are NFL teams playing on Thursday Night Football after a Sunday game that went into overtime failing to cover the point spread at about a 75% clip, but these teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 14 occasions when they were favored by three or more points. As it is, the Packers’ offense is a mess. They only gained 199 yards last week against the Jets. They cannot run the ball without Josh Jacobs (on the Commissioner’s exempt list) — their other running backs are generating only 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Certainly, the injuries on the offensive line are compounding the problem. The offense is last in the NFL with 3rd Down conversion rate of 4-21 (19%). As a team, they committed 14 penalties that accounted for 133 yards given to the Jets. I worry that the problems with the Packers are more foundational than just some unfortunate injuries. I thought the Packers were on the cusp of a Super Bowl run two years ago. I was impressed by the in-season improvements on both sides of the ball in a season that saw them humiliate the Dallas Cowboys in their building in the wildcard round of the NFL playoffs before losing by a narrow 24-21 score in San Francisco against the 49ers in the divisional round. But they stumbled down the stretch in the 2024-25 season by losing their final three games of the season, culminating in a 22-10 loss at Philadelphia in the wildcard round. In my deep dive on this team for last season, I concluded: “Maybe my positive vibes on Green Bay were a year premature and delayed by bad luck injuries to their quarterback. On the other hand, maybe this is a roster of very nice players that remains limited because it simply lacks the handful of superstar game-changers that are essential to win games in the postseason.” General manager Brian Gutekunst may have read that — as he made his big splash by adding a superstar when he pulled off the blockbuster trade with the Cowboys to acquire Parsons. For a few weeks, Green Bay became the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. But then they blew a double-digit lead in a loss at Cleveland before settling for a wild 40-40 tie in Dallas against a Cowboys team that was supposedly rebuilding after trading away Parsons. Something was off, whether it was overconfidence or some sort of lethargy. Then the injury bug hit that would take Parsons along with tight end Tucker Kraft (amidst a breakout season), starting right guard Bako-Bewele (Tom, at the time), and Jordan Love off the playing field. The Packers stumbled into the postseason on a four-game losing streak (all without Parsons). Yet in their third meeting with the Chicago Bears, they raced out to a 21-3 lead at halftime. However, the Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter and rallied from a double-digit deficit against Green Bay to pull out a 31-27 victory. With LaFleur’s future in doubt, new team President Ed Policy extended his contract. While Love was able to return to action for the wildcard round, Parsons, Kraft, and Bako-Bewele remained sidelined. It’s easy to rationalize that their five-game losing streak would not have happened without those critical losses. Now heathy again, the Packers should be ready to make a deep playoff run now. Right? Not so fast, blowing three double-digit leads is a red flag that something is wrong — and, needless to say, the collapse against the Vikings two weeks ago did not alleviate this concern. The roster was good enough to take those big leads, so why was the game not managed in a way to protect those scores? Those disappointments lead to questions about the culture inside the building. It may be no coincidence that LaFleur ranked in the bottom six for NFL coaches in the NFLPA’s annual player survey. He received unfavorable marks regarding “respect for players” — and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich fared even worse. Discovering this only added fuel to my fire that there are culture problems with this football team. Want more evidence about the culture decline of this program? A month after the assistant coach hiring cycle, special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia abruptly retired from football, claiming he wanted to spend more time with his family in Florida. He later accepted the special teams coordinator job at Clemson, which is farther away than a morning commute. His assistant, Byron Storer, would have been in line to get promoted, but he decided to leave Green Bay to run the special teams for the Cleveland Browns. It’s all fishy, especially since one would think that Storer would find the Packers’ job more prestigious. Frankly, LaFleur looks burnt out. I noticed warning signs in my deep dive last year: “And after my raving about head coach Matt LaFleur in my deep dive last year (2024), after he oversaw significant improvements on both sides of the ball the previous season, he endured his worst season as a head coach in his six years, with game management issues compounded by too many lapses of unneeded emotional outbursts. Perhaps the pressure of expectations got to him? Perhaps that impacted the team?” Those thoughts look prescient now — and there are some hard realities for this team staring them in the face. Green Bay has lost five of their last six playoff games. They snuck into the postseason as the seventh seed in each of the last three years — meaning, they would not have even made the playoffs before the postseason field was expanded. I wondered about the lack of star power on the roster last year — perhaps the Packers’ commitment to the “green and growing” philosophy of relying mostly on developing draft picks has enabled them into overrating the quality of their roster? The offensive line appears to be regressing. They lost wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks in free agency, with LaFleur making the bizarre comment that the previous depth at the position was a “problem.” Doubs was the only player in that wide receiver room who could win the ball on the outside. The defense is in transition after Jeff Haffley left to take the head coaching job for the Miami Dolphins. LaFleur brought in former Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon to run the defense — and his first decision was to make the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme. The pass rush after Parsons, when he returns from injury, remains a question. The cornerback room has issues. Perhaps Gannon got too much of the credit operating the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense that reached the Super Bowl in 2023? He would not be the first coach that was made to look good by great cornerbacks and a deep defensive line rotation. His defenses in Arizona were failures that he was unable to scheme-up. The Packers have had the youngest roster in the league for the three previous seasons. While they claimed the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs all three of those seasons, this perpetual motion machine may finally be about to break. Maybe getting healthy again will make all the difference they need — but the cracks in the armor have been showing long before their late season injuries. In the meantime, I am not comfortable at all laying points with them. Green Bay is 12-21-1 ATS in their 34 games with Love starting at quarterback. This is their first game at home at Lambeau Field this season — but they failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games at home last season after playing their previous two games at home. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road after losing at home in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They were undone last week by an insurmountable -5 net turnover margin — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin. It was not the Falcons’ defense fault in their loss last week as they held the Panthers to only 340 yards — but when you have a -5 net turnover margin with three interceptions and one returned for a touchdown, it is nearly impossible to have success. Cooper Rush has already thrown four interceptions this season. Fortunately for Atlanta, Michael Penix, Jr., has been cleared to play — and even Tua Tagovailoa is available to play as his backup. This is not the greatest quarterback room in the league — but first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski gets a massive upgrade at the position this week after relying on Rush and undrafted free agent Jack Strand. Penix threw nine touchdown passes and only three interceptions last season in nine starts before his season-ending injury. At least this franchise has moved on from the expensive contract invested in quarterback Kirk Cousins. I don’t have a significant quarrel with any one individual decision — but I have found the internal logic of many of the decisions in conflict with the internal logic of other decisions. I would not have paid Cousins another big contract at 36 years old, coming off an Achilles injury two years ago — but I understand the logic, so whatever. But then drafting Penix with the eighth pick in the draft that year seemed too clever by half. I listened intently to those defending these simultaneous moves as brilliant, something about options and getting the best of both worlds. I just saw $100 million of guaranteed money wasted on a backup quarterback in a world where Penix was the starter, or a wasted first-round pick in the limelight of Cousins' career if he was a starter. After a 16-18 record amidst injuries to both prized quarterbacks, was two years long enough to form a final verdict on head coach Raheem Morris? I don’t love the decision to fire Morris, especially as the team was still playing hard for him with five victories in their final seven games, but whatever. I’m fine with bringing in Stefanski as their next head coach. He is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year award winner. I like the signing of Tagovailoa because he comes in cheap at $1.3 million on a one-year contract. A veteran backup who is also a southpaw is smart — and he can serve as a reliable option if and when Penix is not healthy. My biggest criticism of Tagovailoa is that I don’t think he can be a viable long-term starting QB in this league. But as a cheap backup QB2? Sweet. Tight end Kyle Pitts finally began to demonstrate his vast potential when he was moved to the slot position in the second half of the season — that was the position from which he thrived in college at Florida. To return to the injury front, starting offensive linemen Jawaan Taylor and Chris Lindstrom have both been upgraded to probable to play tonight. Several defensive players are now listed as probable as well including starting defensive end Brandon Dorius and cornerback Billy Bowman. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Additionally, Stefanski was very good in preparing his team on a short week with Cleveland, as those Browns teams covered their final 4 games for Thursday Night Football in his tenure.
FINAL TAKE: A gentle reminder that we bet numbers, rather than teams. This is less an endorsement of the Falcons than it is a fundamental indictment of the Packers. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their 45 games as a single-digit favorite with LaFleur as their head coach. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (301) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
