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THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the seventh straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track for the 156 professionals this week but they will also play on the South Course as well to complete the setup. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide tree-lined fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The 156 professionals will contend with 87 sand bunkers. One hole features a water hazard. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. The average winning score in the six previous editions in Detroit was -22.3 under par — and all six winners scored at least 18 under par.
LONG SHOT: Keith Michell (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Mitchell (7127) versus Ryan Gerard (7128) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:10 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Keith Mitchell who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Mitchell returns to action after finishing in a tie for 27th place at the RBC Canadian Open earlier this month. He has two top-seven or better finishes in his last six tournaments after a tie for second place at the Corales Puntacana Championship in April before a seventh-place finish at the Truist Championship last month. Mitchell fits the profile of the professionals who can put up a low number at this course. He ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranks eighth in Driving Distance. He also ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in the field this week for those pros who also rank in the top half of the field in Shots-Gained: Total. Additionally, he ranks seventh in the field in Good Drives Gained — and he ranks fourth in Birdie or Better Percentage. This will be the third time playing this tournament but he has not yet made the weekend although last year was the first time he played here since 2019.
Mitchell is linked with Ryan Gerard in Round One head-to-head props. After a surprising tie for eighth place at the PGA Championship, Gerard has not finished better than 23rd in place in his last four tournaments including a tie for 54th place last week at the Travelers Championship. Gerard has never played the Detroit Golf Club as a professional. His game does not appear to be a great fit for this longer course. He ranks just 81st on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance which leads to him ranking only 49th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks 104th in Shots-Gained: Putting which is not a good sign for him competing in a birdie contest. He ranks just 90th on the tour in Birdie or Better Percentage. Gerard does rank 11th on the tour in Round One Scoring — but his course inexperience will not help him on Thursday. Mitchell, on the other hand, leads the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring. Take Mitchell (7127) versus Gerard (7128) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
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